The bears den

[NewInvestor]

US Stock indices is now trading flat. Would we be seeing a reversal from here?

It is about time that US equities pulled back....

 

[revhappy]

US Stock indices is now trading flat. Would we be seeing a reversal from here?

I think there are forces in the market beyond anyone's comprehension. In Dec 2018, markets were plunging and nobody could explain why. If the players were the same, why did they let the market plunge so low and now why are they buying up, inspite of all the bad news?

I think there are some players or group of players who can move the markets the way they want and they are laughing at us, who are trying to explain the moves.

 

[coolhead]

omg my goro finally ejaculating.

 

[SBC]

Pretty boring 2nite. Not enough swing.

 

[coolhead]

Trump demanded it, presumably to artificially prop up the stock market.

The stock market is terrible at predicting interest rate movements.
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/AFE2EAD0-888E-11E9-8B28-E5CA5B3C6912



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[NewInvestor]

The sicko going around making wild guess & allegation again? I remember he made similar allegations against some other people in this forum previously.

But talk of ervino, i kind of miss his posts (like revhappy), which to me is very different from many others here that has herd mentality, or those with metality that if you state contradictory views from theirs, they will start calling you a troll (like Mike here).

I welcome n am interested to read all views. I am sure some others do too. Don't stop contributing.

 

[coolhead]

Interesting

I think the fed intimately knows that this very long bull run is largely attributed to low interest rates. The only reason why interest rates haven't risen at all is due to the low inflation of approx 1.6%, which is below fed target of 2%. Even if the stock market were to be in bear territory, it does not equate to a recession. You can have a crashing stock market but no recession. At current fed rate of 2.25-2.5% and unemployment rate of 3.6%, by historical standards, the interest rate is really low. If anything, if the tariff causes a slight increase in inflation to 2% and unemployment remains constant, we may actually see a rate hike coming Dec 2019.

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[Mecisteus]

The stock market is terrible at predicting interest rate movements.
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/AFE2EAD0-888E-11E9-8B28-E5CA5B3C6912

I don't think any seasoned and long term investors will trade based on interest rates.

 

[coolhead]

Not sure whether that can happen because Trump now still demanding Fed to cut rate & Powell seem scare of Trump (from predicting rate increase to no increase because of Trump).

If ADP employment figures and nonfarm payroll continue to be very bad, it is a good indicator that unemployment rates will rise or at the very least, unemployment claims will increase. But of course if all is good and inflation somehow finds itself into 2% range, a rate hike is possible.

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[coolhead]

I don't think any seasoned and long term investors will trade based on interest rates.

Erm... Not sure how I'll answer your question as the term "long term" and "trade" are oxymoron. However in essence of your statement, it's true long term investors are less reliant on interest rate but the stock market evidently trades based on interest rate probability

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[churnmaster]

Just finished watching the movie 'The Wizard of Lies'. It is the story of Bernie Madoff and his family. Its really an amazing movie. I didn't know Madoff scandal was so big.

He was another "legendary investor" who never lost any money whether it was a bull market or a bear market

 

[DukeCS33]

I don't think any seasoned and long term investors will trade based on interest rates.

That does not sound quite right... Long term investors have to take interest rates into account and make decisions based on the interest rate trajectory..... High interest rates may well attract the funds into fixed deposits and bonds and compete with the stock market for liquidity.

Low interest rates have fueled the stock market bull run over the last 10 years. So what happens when interest rates are on a long term trajectory higher?

 

[churnmaster]

US Stock indices is now trading flat. Would we be seeing a reversal from here?

Looks like consolidating for now .... may be a small pull back to 2870 / 2845 levels over the next few days.

Best would be if Xi Jinping ignores Trump's call for a summit at the G20 leaders meet end of this month.

That would be a big trigger for a decent selloff.

 

[Shortthemkt]

U.S Futures are selling off now

 

[Shortthemkt]

It is about time that US equities pulled back....

2nd that.... the mkt is betting on hope that the Fed would cut rates. Last week's rise was crazy and irrational.

 

[DukeCS33]

2nd that.... the mkt is betting on hope that the Fed would cut rates. Last week's rise was crazy and irrational.

It really depends on what time frame you trade in. Markets cannot always go up or down in a linear fashion. I thought the Mob would always be optimistic and greedy and would continue to hope for fed cuts and push markets higher until we see a reversal set in... fear then takes over. So what is not rational? Fear or greed? If you get the cycles right, whether it goes up or down, you would not see it as irrational right?

 

[coolhead]

U.S Futures are selling off now

Selloff is in line with gold ejaculation... Damn...bought another 1000 goro shares yesterday. Looking forward to a feast tonight.

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[Shortthemkt]

It really depends on what time frame you trade in. Markets cannot always go up or down in a linear fashion. I thought the Mob would always be optimistic and greedy and would continue to hope for fed cuts and push markets higher until we see a reversal set in... fear then takes over. So what is not rational? Fear or greed? If you get the cycles right, whether it goes up or down, you would not see it as irrational right?

Irrational in a sense that there was a weaker than expected jobs data released last week yet the mkt kept charging higher.

I think no one can ever get the cycle right. As retail traders, we just cut loss if we are wrong, and we will be wrong.

 

[Shortthemkt]

Selloff is in line with gold ejaculation... Damn...bought another 1000 goro shares yesterday. Looking forward to a feast tonight.

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There are opportunities now in the futures before mkt opens at night.

 

[revhappy]

He was another "legendary investor" who never lost any money whether it was a bull market or a bear market

That movie shows how people can be blinded by greed. It is not until a crisis strikes that people really know how much of their money is at risk and how much they can get back.