The bears den

[Trader11]

LOL So Much for oil crisis

DUBAI (Reuters) - Attacks on two oil tankers on Thursday in the Gulf of Oman left one ablaze and both adrift, shipping firms said, driving oil prices up 4% over worries about Middle East supplies.

 

[revhappy]

Would day trading not suit you better? You do not need to hold the position overnight - pnl is settled by end of the day and you can sleep well.

This would be like jumping from the frying pan directly into fire.

No disrespect for day traders. It is just that I am way to jiterry to hold a losing position and then when gets into slight profit, I feel like getting out quickly. So I make small gains and huge losses.

 

[churnmaster]

This would be like jumping from the frying pan directly into fire.

No disrespect for day traders. It is just that I am way to jiterry to hold a losing position and then when gets into slight profit, I feel like getting out quickly. So I make small gains and huge losses.

You need to get rid of those dark glasses which you been wearing for a very long time. It's not all that dark outside, instead its quite bright.

To be an investor one has to be optimistic and to be a successful investor, in addition to being optimistic one has to be disciplined.

You had the courage to sell the put option. However, instead of selling just 1 lot, you sold multiple lots at same strike price on the same day with not much change in the value of the underlying. The large position size is what made you jittery. Had it been just 1 lot, you would have probably maintained the position to see how the market behaves over the next few days.

 

[focus1974]

Confirm this is the final phase of the bull ..
Means there will be rapid acceleration of prices ...


IPOs are launching left right center and all are popping 10% to 100% within a week of IPOed.


Final leg.. must participate.. that is where all the gains are. But must run fast... hehe

 

[Mecisteus]

Then people will keep money in big safe at home, or shift money overseas like Japanese, & their own currency (eg JPY) can never appreciate.
Home stock prices cannot go back to previous peak after >20 years! So invest & DCA in JP stocks after 20 years still lose money,
Beware!

Uncle ervino, there were tell tale signs with the Nikkei before the crash.

Valuations were sky high at that time.

 

[kingboonz]

Yes see the wall street market cycle chart

 

[DukeCS33]

Airlines stock are in play this session.

 

[revhappy]

Revised S&P500 targets. Most of these banks are inherently bullish by nature of their business. Yet, they don't see much upside left for the rest of the year.

 

[revhappy]

You need to get rid of those dark glasses which you been wearing for a very long time. It's not all that dark outside, instead its quite bright.

To be an investor one has to be optimistic and to be a successful investor, in addition to being optimistic one has to be disciplined.

You had the courage to sell the put option. However, instead of selling just 1 lot, you sold multiple lots at same strike price on the same day with not much change in the value of the underlying. The large position size is what made you jittery. Had it been just 1 lot, you would have probably maintained the position to see how the market behaves over the next few days.

True. I have always struggled with position sizing. How do you decide position sizing? I tend to take large size trades, relative to my networth. I am always too eager to get all in or all out.

 

[coolhead]

I suspect red on friday and probably turning into monday. have started a short on S&p500

 

[Shiny Things]

Then people will keep money in big safe at home, or shift money overseas like Japanese, & their own currency (eg JPY) can never appreciate.

Ervino, this is wrong.

The yen strengthened from 150 to 80 against the USD in the years after the collapse; Japanese firms invested heavily overseas before the crash, and had to sell their overseas assets and repatriate afterward. It’s still never gotten close to the 150-250 levels that prevailed in the 80s.

 

[NewInvestor]

Is the Trade War finally beginning to show up in Company's results? Broadcom is down 8%....

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...-earnings-2019-06-13?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

 

[coolhead]

Ervino, this is wrong.

The yen strengthened from 150 to 80 against the USD in the years after the collapse; Japanese firms invested heavily overseas before the crash, and had to sell their overseas assets and repatriate afterward. It’s still never gotten close to the 150-250 levels that prevailed in the 80s.

Omg... Legendary shiny things has graced this thread. I pay obeisance to you.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[limster]

Revised S&P500 targets. Most of these banks are inherently bullish by nature of their business. Yet, they don't see much upside left for the rest of the year.

this chart just shows that virtually all analysts come up with basically the same numbers with minimal variation, because analysts have learn that its ok to be wrong, as long as you are all wrong together. (just eliminate the highest and lowest call and see how much closer the mean and median get).

Furthermore, their similarity is probably because they all get expected earnings (aka 'consensus earnings') from the same source, and they are applying their preferred P/E to the expected earnings to get their target S&P level

 

[Trader11]

In a way, this is is similar to calls by some people here to DCA blindly, & these people will claim they they will "never" be "wrong" because the "majority" are on same ship & is always right (based on majority votes - even if the ship is heading in wrong direction)! Lol!

That is why i also agree with Ervino on this point: it is plain stupidity to DCA blindly regardless of market conditions.

Looks like when i taken contrarian view to those people like Shiny Things on DCA, they are now starting to attack me here (just like they attacked ervino previously), calling me a troll, is ervino etc. Real sad to see that these people can do such things & get away with it.

The thing is their timeframe is until retirement. So it will be 20 - 30 years later. But some people don't have the temperament to DCA when market is down. Either they make losses by exiting and going full cash or start turning bearish (turning extreme in their views)

 

[Mecisteus]

I sense great havoc & changes coming in future.
Us will become land of sunset within 20 years with the rise of China.
US tech stocks will start to lose China market to sell to because of US starting attack on China Co & China retaliate.
US may experience lost decade like Japan in next 20-30 years.

We people should be very careful not to be too optimistic on US stock market & US stocks (except those US residents or those with vested US interest will claim otherwise).

ervino aka sugarbun, the general consensus here is to have a broadly diversified ETF like IWDA.

 

[Shortthemkt]

Revised S&P500 targets. Most of these banks are inherently bullish by nature of their business. Yet, they don't see much upside left for the rest of the year.

Dont trust wall street banks. The chart is your only friend.

 

[Shortthemkt]

Hope none of you got caught in the oil spike early this morning.

 

[coolhead]

Hope none of you got caught in the oil spike early this morning.

What's the news?

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[revhappy]

ervino aka sugarbun, the general consensus here is to have a broadly diversified ETF like IWDA.

This is even worse. US is apparently the best house in a bad neighbourhood. Look at what else is there in IWDA.
Japan -> Totally screwed up since 2 decades or more?
Europe -> On its way to become Japan, lol

What is left? Apparently, 21st century was supposed to be the Asian century, with China and India dominating. But IWDA dont have them. You can argue that global companies have sales in emerging markets and they will benefit from EM growth. This trade war and protectionism is going to upend a bit of that.