The bears den

DukeCS33

Senior Member
Joined
Jul 8, 2018
Messages
2,330
Reaction score
7
this chart just shows that virtually all analysts come up with basically the same numbers with minimal variation, because analysts have learn that its ok to be wrong, as long as you are all wrong together. (just eliminate the highest and lowest call and see how much closer the mean and median get).

Furthermore, their similarity is probably because they all get expected earnings (aka 'consensus earnings') from the same source, and they are applying their preferred P/E to the expected earnings to get their target S&P level

Analyst take their numbers from the company CFO and processed it via their systems. Every house has a slightly different system or methodology but the outcomes should not be drastically different. My general rule is never to buy when the last analyst turns bullish and vice versa. That said, I do think that the best time to buy is when the last analyst turns bearish... it just shows that the share price has already reflected all the bad news and chances are the price may have bottomed.

Having worked in markets, there has been constant whispers of the house taking on a position prior to release of such reports - so essentially, they have bought and would wish for others to buy so as to push prices higher or for them to sell into strength.
 

DukeCS33

Senior Member
Joined
Jul 8, 2018
Messages
2,330
Reaction score
7
This is even worse. US is apparently the best house in a bad neighbourhood. Look at what else is there in IWDA.
Japan -> Totally screwed up since 2 decades or more?
Europe -> On its way to become Japan, lol

What is left? Apparently, 21st century was supposed to be the Asian century, with China and India dominating. But IWDA dont have them. You can argue that global companies have sales in emerging markets and they will benefit from EM growth. This trade war and protectionism is going to upend a bit of that.

hahahaa

I nominate revhappy for HWZ's best bear award 2019 :D:D:D
 

DukeCS33

Senior Member
Joined
Jul 8, 2018
Messages
2,330
Reaction score
7
I suspect red on friday and probably turning into monday. have started a short on S&p500

The SP is just chopping around 2900. I suspect that we may not see any major push up or down until next week when the Fed has their meeting. Looks like market is just unsure and hence the reduced volume.
 

DukeCS33

Senior Member
Joined
Jul 8, 2018
Messages
2,330
Reaction score
7
Something interesting to share:

Shares of Callaway Gold Co. (ELY) shot up 12% toward a 6 1/2-month high in morning trade Thursday, after the golf equipment maker disclosed that hedge fund Jana Partners LLC had acquired a 9.2% stake, which would make Jana the second- largest shareholder. Jana said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that it acquired the stake because it believed the shares are "undervalued and present an attractive investment opportunity." Jana said that while Callaway been able to drive innovation and gain market share, "other factors" have caused the stock to underperform. As a result, Jana said it intends to have discussions with Callaway's board of directors and management regarding strategic alternatives, including exploring a divesting of assets or a sale of the company. In its most recent 13F filing, Jana said it didn't own any Callaway shares as of March 31 . Callaway's stock has lost 11% over the past 12 months, while the S&P 500 has gained 4.3%.

If you look at the price and volume chart of ELY, you can see evidence of collection prior to the lead up to yesterday's surge. In particular, the price candle and volume on 31 May and the subsequent ones there after were quite telling. On 31 May, if the price were to head lower on the back of a drastic increase in volume, there should be a widespread bearish candle. Instead, we have a rather narrow bullish candle - just shows that someone is collecting from all the sellers. The collection probably stopped on 6 june and we have a signalling to the markets by way of an announcement. Large volume surges typically precedes a move.
 

lightchaser

Member
Joined
Sep 26, 2001
Messages
397
Reaction score
9
Revised S&P500 targets. Most of these banks are inherently bullish by nature of their business. Yet, they don't see much upside left for the rest of the year.

brHPQqZ.jpg

May I ask where to get this data ? Thks.
 

coolhead

Great Supremacy Member
Joined
Mar 25, 2007
Messages
52,450
Reaction score
13,590
The SP is just chopping around 2900. I suspect that we may not see any major push up or down until next week when the Fed has their meeting. Looks like market is just unsure and hence the reduced volume.
Apart from fed meeting ( which I think market will be disappointed), there's also the G20 on end June to look forward to.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT
 

NewInvestor

Supremacy Member
Joined
Dec 17, 2014
Messages
7,341
Reaction score
3
I am just happy that there are a number of opposing views here. A good change from the constant drone of bullish views. My own view is on the negative side and have chosen to be in 80% cash like instruments.
 

revhappy

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2012
Messages
12,208
Reaction score
2,669
May I ask where to get this data ? Thks.

Someone shared it on twitter. It seems Bloomberg collated it. I know most of those strategists come on Bloomberg regularly. Especially Savita Subramian, Binky Chadda, Jonathan Golub.
 

Shortthemkt

Junior Member
Joined
May 27, 2019
Messages
81
Reaction score
0
Is the Trade War finally beginning to show up in Company's results? Broadcom is down 8%..

Thing is there's nothing fundamental about the whole trade war thingy. Imagine trump tweets "ok fine. I like the coversation I had with the Chinese premier.No tariffs to be imposed on China from tomorrow".
 

revhappy

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2012
Messages
12,208
Reaction score
2,669
Thing is there's nothing fundamental about the whole trade war thingy. Imagine trump tweets "ok fine. I like the coversation I had with the Chinese premier.No tariffs to be imposed on China from tomorrow".

He won't do this so soon. This is going to be his big agenda for re-election.

He has already said that China loves Biden, since Biden is all for no tariffs. So if anything, the trade war will be resolved very close to the election date.

He has already killed the Mexico immigrants agenda for now. But, very likely he is going to create some more new fears around the election date and bid for a re-election to solve those issues.
 
Last edited:

Shortthemkt

Junior Member
Joined
May 27, 2019
Messages
81
Reaction score
0
Apart from fed meeting ( which I think market will be disappointed), there's also the G20 on end June to look forward to.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

What one can do is to short now and cut above 2915.
 
Last edited:

lightchaser

Member
Joined
Sep 26, 2001
Messages
397
Reaction score
9
Thing is there's nothing fundamental about the whole trade war thingy. Imagine trump tweets "ok fine. I like the coversation I had with the Chinese premier.No tariffs to be imposed on China from tomorrow".

Trump real agenda cud be to remove the supply chain from China to weaken it. The tariffs are just the tools .
 

Shortthemkt

Junior Member
Joined
May 27, 2019
Messages
81
Reaction score
0
Noted noted. Thanks for guidance. This week is the first Monday which is green.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

2895 now. Consider moving stop loss to entry as it hits 200MA. If you want short term profits you can square off the short now. Congrats.
 
Last edited:

coolhead

Great Supremacy Member
Joined
Mar 25, 2007
Messages
52,450
Reaction score
13,590
2895 now. Consider moving stop loss to entry as it hits 200MA. If you want short term profits you can square off the short now. Congrats.
S&p futures 2888 now. I can only trade when US premarket opens so it's all good. Something is funny though I can't find any reason. Futures turning red at same time that gold ejaculated... Not that I'm complaining.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT
 
Important Forum Advisory Note
This forum is moderated by volunteer moderators who will react only to members' feedback on posts. Moderators are not employees or representatives of HWZ Forums. Forum members and moderators are responsible for their own posts. Please refer to our Community Guidelines and Standards and Terms and Conditions for more information.
Top