The bears den

[[M]aiev]

Then did u act on ur instinct?

errr I was on the heavy buying spree during last year Dec correction ?

 

[BBCWatcher]

TIPS is garbage. These things are indexed to the CPI but CPI isn't what it used to be....

OK, so what we have here is an interesting little subculture of inflation rate doubters. The inflation rate statistics cannot possibly be correct...because, reasons.

Sorry, this is nonsense. While reasonable, rational people might quibble about the finer aspects of inflation measures within rather narrow bands all reflecting reality (and reasonable attempts to understand it), claiming that inflation has averaged 10% over the past 2 decades is absolute, utter nonsense. If that figure were true then, on average, you'd be paying US$6,700 (or thereabouts) in 2019 for a real good or service priced at US$1,000 in 1998. That's bonkers crazy, truly.

Prices are not state secrets! Not often, anyway. M.I.T. and Harvard monitor all kinds of prices in The Billion Prices Project, and they find that the BLS's CPI figures are pretty darn accurate.

 

[Dividends Warrior]

Still got what REITs and business trust can buy? The branded REITs u own all like ath.

Was looking at Netlink Trust below 0.80, but looked until flew up.
With the Fed and every other major central banks cutting rates, I dun think prices are gonna come down anytime soon.
2 possible picks are ESR and starhill global, but both are 2nd tier reits. You're right, the top-tier ones are ath.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

You should be a little bit in the $$ now. Any serious active intraday traders here? Make some noise.

Hello this is bears thread. So how to make noise when the shortists kena burned when the fundamentals change in late June?

Low interest rates and low inflation is here to stay at least for the next 3 years.

 

[Dividends Warrior]

Low interest rates and low inflation is here to stay at least for the next 3 years.

Pls dun make me too happy

 

[churnmaster]

You should be a little bit in the $$ now. Any serious active intraday traders here? Make some noise.

I have been trading SG market on intraday basis using DLC SG7x ShortMSG ... buy on rally and sell on dip.

S$2K capital gets you S$14K exposure, 0.5% movement in the underlying provides S$70 opportunity.

Accounting for transaction cost and spread, S$50 realistic opportunity to capture.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Pls dun make me too happy

Means you will continue to huat!

REIT sector upside. Bank sector downside.

 

[Shortthemkt]

Hello this is bears thread. So how to make noise when the shortists kena burned when the fundamentals change in late June?

Low interest rates and low inflation is here to stay at least for the next 3 years.

Well, any trader will get burned regardless the mkt direction if he doesn't know what he's doing.

 

[churnmaster]

OK, so what we have here is an interesting little subculture of inflation rate doubters. The inflation rate statistics cannot possibly be correct...because, reasons.

Sorry, this is nonsense. While reasonable, rational people might quibble about the finer aspects of inflation measures within rather narrow bands all reflecting reality (and reasonable attempts to understand it), claiming that inflation has averaged 10% over the past 2 decades is absolute, utter nonsense. If that figure were true then, on average, you'd be paying US$6,700 (or thereabouts) in 2019 for a real good or service priced at US$1,000 in 1998. That's bonkers crazy, truly.

Prices are not state secrets! Not often, anyway. M.I.T. and Harvard monitor all kinds of prices in The Billion Prices Project, and they find that the BLS's CPI figures are pretty darn accurate.

Do they take into account healthcare and education related costs while calculating the CPI ? These costs have gone up substantially in most parts of the world. Offcourse, food and energy costs have remained low over the last few years, however that too in the developed world. In the developing world, especially in Asia, where almost every country is an energy importer, any spike in oil price will result in cost push inflation and ultimately show up in their CPIs.

 

[Lasogette]

Was looking at Netlink Trust below 0.80, but looked until flew up.
With the Fed and every other major central banks cutting rates, I dun think prices are gonna come down anytime soon.
2 possible picks are ESR and starhill global, but both are 2nd tier reits. You're right, the top-tier ones are ath.

Getting prime REITs ipo?

 

[churnmaster]

I was in a dilemma whether to stay in S&P500 actually. Apart from a local bank stock and reit, only a few minor positions in S&p500, the rest are in gold stocks, like 60-65% gold stocks. Mighty heavy weightage I know.

You can consider selling long dated OTM call options against those long gold stocks and earn some premiums while holding on to the risk.

 

[peipei1]

Iwda is up to almost 59, early this year sold 55 shares average 56, was hoping to average down when bear market drop. Should i be cautiously optimistic and start buying long term etf.

I feel that if trade wars do not happen, we can have 2nd wind upthrust for expansion...5G and AI can be the starter fire.

Instead of iwda, who dares to pick up upro and hold for a year or 6 months, if market keeps going up, this leveraged etf can return almost 3 times of sp500 index!

 

[BBCWatcher]

Do they take into account healthcare and education related costs while calculating the CPI ?

Yes, the statistical bureaus do.

 

[MrHighlander]

This is precisely the time to stay out

Be fearful when others are greedy

Pls dun make me too happy

 

[Mecisteus]

This is precisely the time to stay out

Be fearful when others are greedy

Don't need to sell everything.

Just don't add any more new positions.

 

[limster]

I thought people in this thread have been posting articles claiming that the majority of investors are still on the sidelines, that fund managers are hoarding cash, showing that people are fearful not greedy?

Only when permabears start to become greedy and restart buying, then that might to be signal to run for the hills! Thats why I'm carefully monitoring this thread to see if the bears are capitulating!

 

[starfish.starfish]

I thought people in this thread have been posting articles claiming that the majority of investors are still on the sidelines, that fund managers are hoarding cash, showing that people are fearful not greedy?

Only when permabears start to become greedy and restart buying, then that might to be signal to run for the hills! Thats why I'm carefully monitoring this thread to see if the bears are capitulating!

Bears have gone all quiet. Is that a sign?

 

[NewInvestor]

I thought people in this thread have been posting articles claiming that the majority of investors are still on the sidelines, that fund managers are hoarding cash, showing that people are fearful not greedy?

Only when permabears start to become greedy and restart buying, then that might to be signal to run for the hills! Thats why I'm carefully monitoring this thread to see if the bears are capitulating!

They know u r watching. So would they tell u if they bought?

 

[peacefulday]

From past, every news of rate cut drive up index and usually back dropped the next few days. Be cautious.

 

[NewInvestor]

From past, every news of rate cut drive up index and usually back dropped the next few days. Be cautious.

No more buying from me. Will wait and see.