The bears den

[Mecisteus]

From past, every news of rate cut drive up index and usually back dropped the next few days. Be cautious.

Short term is probably down.

You make use of the down opportunity to load up.

 

[Dividends Warrior]

I thought people in this thread have been posting articles claiming that the majority of investors are still on the sidelines, that fund managers are hoarding cash, showing that people are fearful not greedy?

Only when permabears start to become greedy and restart buying, then that might to be signal to run for the hills! Thats why I'm carefully monitoring this thread to see if the bears are capitulating!

They could be secretly capitulating?
I used to know one friend, kept saying he was waiting for a property market crash to buy his 1st property. Waited for a few years but the prices kept on rising. He buay tahan. Later on, realised he secretly bought without telling anyone. Hahaha!

 

[Trader11]

They could be secretly capitulating?
I used to know one friend, kept saying he was waiting for a property market crash to buy his 1st property. Waited for a few years but the prices kept on rising. He buay tahan. Later on, realised he secretly bought without telling anyone. Hahaha!

LOL.... That is why it is better to see what people do rather than what they say

 

[peacefulday]

I prefer looking at the opportunity gap range yield rather then a temporary pull back scoop. I have tried different methods and it suit me.

Short term is probably down.

You make use of the down opportunity to load up.

 

[Shortthemkt]

I have been trading SG market on intraday basis using DLC SG7x ShortMSG ... buy on rally and sell on dip.

S$2K capital gets you S$14K exposure, 0.5% movement in the underlying provides S$70 opportunity.

Accounting for transaction cost and spread, S$50 realistic opportunity to capture.

So far the discussions have been on US mkt.

I dont trade sgx stocks since they are too slow for me. If you are profitable trading sgx stocks, well done because it is not easy sitting whole day waiting for opportunities when prices move so slowly.

 

[d9_lives]

Don't need to sell everything.

Just don't add any more new positions.

Eh? Even you, are trying to time the market?

 

[DukeCS33]

I thought people in this thread have been posting articles claiming that the majority of investors are still on the sidelines, that fund managers are hoarding cash, showing that people are fearful not greedy?

Only when permabears start to become greedy and restart buying, then that might to be signal to run for the hills! Thats why I'm carefully monitoring this thread to see if the bears are capitulating!

Yes this has been the case as per surveys done by institutions and which has been reported over the newswire. The Markets have been increasingly been driven by algos and passive Etf funds. The massive amount of liquidity out there from all the central bank easy monetary policy needs to find a vehicle to be parked in and right now all asset classes look ugly. Traditionally bond prices and gold prices are negatively corelated to equity prices and when you see all of them rising up, it only means that the excess liquidity just have no place to be parked in. Now the Fed is indicating that they are joining in cutting rates when there is simply not a need... Inflationary pressure is picking up, employment is strong and we never ever have a recession when unemployment is this low. So what happens when cuts are then needed... Japan and Europe are cases in point where monetary policy loses effectiveness.
So in the short run the bulls will have their day. But if growth turns negative, we would really be in for trouble as cutting rates now means monetary policy loses its efficacy when needed later.
So the current situation defies macro trading. The case for the bears is deferred but there are enough reasons to becareful. And I have changed my money management and trading to reflect this new paradigm that we are seeing. One need not capitulate... Maybe alter strategies and tactics. And seeing the pemabears capitulate may not necessary be the only way to derive a signal. What if the bears capitulate and we have a melt up but a minor correction before it surges higher again? If you are not a trader then maybe just buy and hold. If you are a trader, there are short opportunities even in a bull market and long opportunities in a bear market. I think it is more important to grasp an understanding of the drivers and trading opportunities.

 

[[M]aiev]

Eh? Even you, are trying to time the market?

why do you want to buy when the market kana run up ?

 

[kakashixx]

Eh? Even you, are trying to time the market?

realistically speaking, who doesnt time their entry into the market?

 

[SpinFire]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...onomy-growth-gdp-q2-lowest-in-decade-11713694

MAS will ease monetary policy soon.

ECB is easing, Fed is easing, everyone’s easing!

 

[DukeCS33]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...gressively-courting-hk-business-idUSKCN1U70DL

If the Chinese and HK monies were to make its way into Singapore, asset and property prices here would rise.

 

[DukeCS33]

why do you want to buy when the market kana run up ?

There are opportunities depending on how one sees this.... buy at record high and sell at even higher record high if one spots a good momentum driven play.

 

[d9_lives]

realistically speaking, who doesnt time their entry into the market?

I buy when I have money, I don't wait.

 

[BBCWatcher]

Inflationary pressure is picking up...

Where do you see that? It's not in the U.S. Consumer Price Index.

...employment is strong...

The headline U.S. unemployment rate is indeed as low as it was in the late 1960s. However, the labor force participation rate among prime age adults is still well below its all-time high. Moreover, wage rates are only modestly and recently rising in real terms, and not beyond what productivity growth would suggest. In short, the U.S. economy is some interplanetary distance away from wage-driven inflation.

...and we never ever have a recession when unemployment is this low.

The unemployment rate is a trailing macroeconomic indicator, not a leading one. In fact, the last time the headline unemployment rate was as low as it is now the U.S. experienced a relatively short, mild recession (from December, 1969, to November, 1970). But the unemployment rate surged to 6.1% in December, 1970, nearly 2.5 percentage points above its low. That was still a lot of real pain.

So what happens when cuts are then needed... Japan and Europe are cases in point where monetary policy loses effectiveness.

There are plenty of tools in the toolbag, including fiscal policy and unorthodox monetary policies, e.g. depositing free money in every consumer bank account overnight, or declaring every coin in circulation to be worth 10 times its face value. (The penny is instantly the new dime, the nickel is the new 50 cent piece, the dime is the new dollar coin, the quarter is the new US$2.50 coin -- or US$2 coin -- etc. Every kid, big and small, with a coin jar would rejoice.)

But if growth turns negative, we would really be in for trouble as cutting rates now means monetary policy loses its efficacy when needed later.

Maybe, but that's only one tool in the toolbag. Moreover, the Europeans and others have demonstrated that that particular tool can be oddly powerful. For some strange reason(s) bonds yielding negative interest rates are more viable than previously thought.

Look, I really don't lose sleep over the ability of central bankers to generate inflation if they really wish to do so. This isn't actually difficult to do. As one journalist recently put it, if a central banker has that concern then the central bank should try depositing US$10 million in his and in everyone else's bank accounts then see if they have any remaining concerns. That journalist is offering this advice on contingency, and he will refund his US$5 million consulting fee (from his US$10 million richer bank account) in the event this experiment does not result in more inflation.

 

[BBCWatcher]

MAS will ease monetary policy soon.

Frankly I don't know why the MAS increased the slope in the first place (in 2018, twice). Where were these inflationary pressures they feared?

 

[Dividends Warrior]

So what happens when cuts are then needed... Japan and Europe are cases in point where monetary policy loses effectiveness.
So in the short run the bulls will have their day. But if growth turns negative, we would really be in for trouble as cutting rates now means monetary policy loses its efficacy when needed later.

Rate cut is not the only policy tool.
Dun forget the 'QE Bazooka'

 

[havetheveryfun]

 

[Mecisteus]

Eh? Even you, are trying to time the market?

It all boils down to what is your investment strategy.

I have not been adding since December.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

It all boils down to what is your investment strategy.

I have not been adding since December.

Steady lah you also Pennywise fan ah?

Hahaha I think we same age group lah.

I listening to the 2018 album now.

 

[Mecisteus]

Steady lah you also Pennywise fan ah?

Hahaha I think we same age group lah.

I listening to the 2018 album now.

Such a coincidence and least expected from you.

I started following in the early 2000. I listen to any punk rock songs.