The bears den

[limster]

The bears are underestimating the (psychological and/or monetary) impact of Fed's ability to cut rates. The Bulls should be glad on hindsight that Fed raised rates, so now it has room to cut, cancelling out one of the bear's main doomsday scenarios, that we enter recession and Fed has no more room to cut rates. They should also be glad that Powell is in charge as a rate cut with a less credible Chair in charge might not have the same confidence boosting ability.

Like I mentioned earlier, don't underestimate the Fed!
STI up today even with economic contraction.

However, I have no interest in chasing this sort of rally. I think I'm done buying for this month.

 

[coolhead]

Like I mentioned earlier, don't underestimate the Fed!
STI up today even with economic contraction.

However, I have no interest in chasing this sort of rally. I think I'm done buying for this month.

Fed used to be data driven. Though in principle they are still data driven, there is now a preemptive connotation to the fed policy it seems. A slight deviation from the norm actually cause the fed to rethink and cut rates in July. I previously thought July is out but with more and more fed speakers gunning for proactive cuts, July cut seems like a possibility. Damn....

Perhaps in foresight the fed are onto the right track as unemployment is lowest but inflation is somewhat off for a healthy economy.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[Mecisteus]

Fed used to be data driven. Though in principle they are still data driven, there is now a preemptive connotation to the fed policy it seems. A slight deviation from the norm actually cause the fed to rethink and cut rates in July. I previously thought July is out but with more and more fed speakers gunning for proactive cuts, July cut seems like a possibility. Damn....

Perhaps in foresight the fed are onto the right track as unemployment is lowest but inflation is somewhat off for a healthy economy.

I always view both sides positively. So I'm hedged.

Cut or no cut is a good sign to me.

No cut means strong economy

Cut means cheap for business to invest and good for stocks

 

[revhappy]

This morning I am when I see my US popped by 1+%.

In my view, this is nothing to be gloated about. What is happening is a lot of future gains is getting priced in now. A bit like Japan in the 1990s. US is pricing in gains for next 3-4 decades.

Fed is being absolutely reckless blowing a massive bubble. I believe in trade offs and zero sum game. You cannot just create gains out of thin air. You are only bringing forward from the future, by creating very very loose conditions. The price needs to be paid in the future.

So yeah enjoy the ride while it is going up. I stay out of it.

 

[Mecisteus]

In my view, this is nothing to be gloated about. What is happening is a lot of future gains is getting priced in now. A bit like Japan in the 1990s. US is pricing in gains for next 3-4 decades.

Fed is being absolutely reckless blowing a massive bubble. I believe in trade offs and zero sum game. You cannot just create gains out of thin air. You are only bringing forward from the future, by creating very very loose conditions. The price needs to be paid in the future.

So yeah enjoy the ride while it is going up. I stay out of it.

You gloat on the bearish side while not being invested, I choose to gloat on the bullish size while being invested.

You are still delusional. US market is nowhere near Japan or tech bubble. Stay away from toxic sources like zerohedge.

0% or 100% in equities is really a silly preposition to be in right now.

Choose an allocation somewhere in the middle. It is not good to be on the extreme sides.

 

[coolhead]

In my view, this is nothing to be gloated about. What is happening is a lot of future gains is getting priced in now. A bit like Japan in the 1990s. US is pricing in gains for next 3-4 decades.

Fed is being absolutely reckless blowing a massive bubble. I believe in trade offs and zero sum game. You cannot just create gains out of thin air. You are only bringing forward from the future, by creating very very loose conditions. The price needs to be paid in the future.

So yeah enjoy the ride while it is going up. I stay out of it.

We will only know in hindsight if they are reckless or are constrained by high debt circumstances that this is a natural step to take to maintain their dual KPI.

But if this is the route the fed will take, why not make it an opportunity to gain returns? This is no longer a fed that waits a 1 or 2 quarters of data before reacting like in Ben bernancke, Jane yellen and earlier fed chairs. It seems to me they are serious in maintaining their targets even if interest rates seem historically low.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[Hot_Dog]

In my view, this is nothing to be gloated about. What is happening is a lot of future gains is getting priced in now. A bit like Japan in the 1990s. US is pricing in gains for next 3-4 decades.

Fed is being absolutely reckless blowing a massive bubble. I believe in trade offs and zero sum game. You cannot just create gains out of thin air. You are only bringing forward from the future, by creating very very loose conditions. The price needs to be paid in the future.

So yeah enjoy the ride while it is going up. I stay out of it.

I kinda agree with your views, what concerns me is the level at which they start, damn this time, around 3% and cannot tahan liao. But hey I'm in for the ride, cut to your hearts content Feds, you crazy *******s.

 

[[M]aiev]

In my view, this is nothing to be gloated about. What is happening is a lot of future gains is getting priced in now. A bit like Japan in the 1990s. US is pricing in gains for next 3-4 decades.

Fed is being absolutely reckless blowing a massive bubble. I believe in trade offs and zero sum game. You cannot just create gains out of thin air. You are only bringing forward from the future, by creating very very loose conditions. The price needs to be paid in the future.

So yeah enjoy the ride while it is going up. I stay out of it.

You are a part of the herd when they are calling for bubbles and bear right now..

 

[[M]aiev]

Thanks to those idiots who sold me cheap shares during last year Oct-Dec market correction. Once again, thank you !

 

[Kapish]

Thanks to those idiots who sold me cheap shares during last year Oct-Dec market correction. Once again, thank you !

fingers cross they will do it many more times this year
i love it when donald trump twits something negative about trade

and more articles like this does help

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/e...tment-officer-2019-07-19?mod=mw_theo_homepage

 

[[M]aiev]

fingers cross they will do it many more times this year
i love it when donald trump twits something negative about the economy or trade

and more articles like this does help

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/e...tment-officer-2019-07-19?mod=mw_theo_homepage

99.99% it wun end up like 2008 aka economical depression cause general public are fearful since 2008. Even if it's bear market at most my port will down like 20-30% and it will rebound to create new high by buying great companies aka component stocks .

As for now, I am staying sideline at the market.

 

[coolhead]

Thanks to those idiots who sold me cheap shares during last year Oct-Dec market correction. Once again, thank you !

Don't call people idiot lah.... Be grateful there is willing buyer willing seller.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[Trader11]

Bear is back. Fed is claiming interest rate cut need not be aggressive cut

 

[Shortthemkt]

revhappy, Duke and Shortthemkt all gone into hibernation.

They will probably be back when there is volatility.

No post doesn't mean no trades. Busy staring at chart. Anyway caught the drop early this morning. Will close position on mon.


Regardless of volatility and mkt direction, there are always opportunities for intraday and short term trades. I have shared how to short s&p 500.

 

[churnmaster]

I think most of the yield fall is already done. Yields could fall another 50bps, which means this bond could gain 3.5% with its duration of 7 years.

Not bad, I guess ... considering it's a SGD denominated singapore govt bond and if a big chunk of this potential appreciation can happen in the next 6-9 months.

Anyways, I won't be adding to my holdings .... instead would be selling the same into the rally, whenever it happens and then may be invest into MBH or something else.

 

[Mecisteus]

No post doesn't mean no trades. Busy staring at chart. Anyway caught the drop early this morning. Will close position on mon.

Regardless of volatility and mkt direction, there are always opportunities for intraday and short term trades. I have shared how to short s&p 500.

Thanks for sharing the obvious.

 

[focus1974]

This should be the next trigger..
Bank runs are always the cause of a shock to the system.

I doubt any hedge funds would want to gamble on DB being safe and would rather not be the last few to exit the fire before they shut down the gate (redemption freezed on hedgefunds).

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-16/bank-run-deutsche-bank-clients-are-pulling-1-billion-day

 

[coolhead]

This actually reminds me of the subprime housing mortgage crisis in 2008 because that's what is happening in Europe now...To so-called maintain the ETF/funds kpi, they have to resort to buying high yield bonds to maintain the returns; 13usd trillion bonds are negative yields already. In addition, the default rate of the high yield bonds are at 2% this year and rising. Last year it was 0.6%.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-18/a-10-billion-etf-is-smashing-records-amid-the-junk-bond-binge

 

[coolhead]

This should be the next trigger..
Bank runs are always the cause of a shock to the system.

I doubt any hedge funds would want to gamble on DB being safe and would rather not be the last few to exit the fire before they shut down the gate (redemption freezed on hedgefunds).

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-16/bank-run-deutsche-bank-clients-are-pulling-1-billion-day

but ECB can step in as the lender of last resort? But then again, for the central bank to be so strict towards fellow European countries on exceeding 3% of GDP in fiscal spending, forcing them to survive on austerity measures and then to be lenient towards a bank facing bank runs.... that is rather double standard.

 

[wutawa]

Reminds me of cockroach