The bears den

[Mecisteus]

The low allocation won't make any impact to my life. Especially, index investing. If 20% of my portfolio goes up by 10% and rest of th portfolio goes up by 2%, overall it is 3.6%. I would rather conserve that 20% allocation for a deeper crash.

You have been waiting for the crash since the last GFC.

You need to consider the opportunity cost.

 

[chrisloh65]

moneyandmarkets.com/jim-rogers-warns-bear-market

Jim Rogers: Get Ready for the Next Bear Market; ‘It’s Going to Be Terrible’
Posted by JT Crowe | Jul 12, 2019 | Markets

Get ready to short big time!

 

[Trader11]

moneyandmarkets.com/jim-rogers-warns-bear-market

Jim Rogers: Get Ready for the Next Bear Market; ‘It’s Going to Be Terrible’
Posted by JT Crowe | Jul 12, 2019 | Markets

Get ready to short big time!

It's Jim Rogers.. Any surprise. He had been perma bear for a long time.

 

[d9_lives]

Dear Doomsayers/Market Timers... Did you predict the 2018 correction?

 

[peacefulday]

What is your target yield? I dont see much gap up if recent bought in sgx.

Ic, i guess i will be more greedy than u. Haha

 

[wutawa]

What is your target yield? I dont see much gap up if recent bought in sgx.

30% pa from buying after crash

 

[[M]aiev]

My tech and healthcare heavy portfolio is green today.

I took the opportunity to sell <10% of them.

tech has better performance compared to healthcare in term of sector. Healthcare is lagging technically.

 

[coolhead]

Duke, what do you make of this since you are a trader? I'm thinking about 31st july fed rate decision. 100% market consensus on 25basis points minimum and if the fed doesn't call a rate cut, all hell breaks loose on light volume?
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/22/the-market-has-a-technical-problem-making-it-vulnerable-to-a-rapid-sell-off-jp-morgan-says.html

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[DukeCS33]

Duke, what do you make of this since you are a trader? I'm thinking about 31st july fed rate decision. 100% market consensus on 25basis points minimum and if the fed doesn't call a rate cut, all hell breaks loose on light volume?
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/22/the...rable-to-a-rapid-sell-off-jp-morgan-says.html

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

I do not take positions nor trade around event risks nowadays.
Personally, I do not think the Fed has a case for a rate cut. Unemployment is low, the June CPI numbers overshot expectations and the GDP is humming along fine albeit slowdown in certain sectors. However, Powell has already signalled to the market that he would most likely cut and that is 3mths after their last stance of signalling a hike. So, I think Fed has changed and is pandering to the markets and succumbing to pressure from Trump. The ECB is likely to deliver on their easing and so the path of least resistance for Fed is to do the same - that way, it takes the heat off from a ever watching Trump. But I think something is more sinister - by cutting, (and again I think this is Trump's playbook) it is not allowing the USD to strengthen. I think we are at the cusp of a currency war where countries with tariffs imposed may be trying to ease their currency to cushion the impact of tariffs.

So this cut may be accompanied with dovish statements that goes and confirm the Market's rate path and stroke the equity markets further. If Powell cuts and pulls back on dovish talk, or scale down the market's aggressive rate cut expectations, then equity markets may tank.

So if Fed is even the least bit hawkish, then the sell off may not be on light volume. There may be heavy selling - note the sell off on the 19th was on the heaviest volume in the SP futures market for the month of July. So I can only guess that there is potential supply lurking. And with a Fed rate stance that is not affirming the Market's, this represents a fundamental shift and has the potential to prompt a correction. (note this recent rally has been on light volume and I find it fishy)

In any case, I would be participating less in this forum. I have been busy devising and researching on some new strategies and scripting them and that is taking quite a bit of time. So until then...
I have stopped swings and am trading intraday nowadays. So I would continue trading that way till after the fed meeting. Then I would rethink my strategy. For those reading the charts... note a few things - the recent candles are forming lower highs and lower lows.... I would not be surprised if there may be further profit taking after Fed cuts.

 

[coolhead]

I do not take positions nor trade around event risks nowadays.
Personally, I do not think the Fed has a case for a rate cut. Unemployment is low, the June CPI numbers overshot expectations and the GDP is humming along fine albeit slowdown in certain sectors. However, Powell has already signalled to the market that he would most likely cut and that is 3mths after their last stance of signalling a hike. So, I think Fed has changed and is pandering to the markets and succumbing to pressure from Trump. The ECB is likely to deliver on their easing and so the path of least resistance for Fed is to do the same - that way, it takes the heat off from a ever watching Trump. But I think something is more sinister - by cutting, (and again I think this is Trump's playbook) it is not allowing the USD to strengthen. I think we are at the cusp of a currency war where countries with tariffs imposed may be trying to ease their currency to cushion the impact of tariffs.

So this cut may be accompanied with dovish statements that goes and confirm the Market's rate path and stroke the equity markets further. If Powell cuts and pulls back on dovish talk, or scale down the market's aggressive rate cut expectations, then equity markets may tank.

So if Fed is even the least bit hawkish, then the sell off may not be on light volume. There may be heavy selling - note the sell off on the 19th was on the heaviest volume in the SP futures market for the month of May. So I can only guess that there is potential supply lurking. And with a Fed rate stance that is not affirming the Market's, this represents a fundamental shift and has the potential to prompt a correction. (note this recent rally has been on light volume and I find it fishy)

In any case, I would be participating less in this forum. I have been busy devising and researching on some new strategies and scripting them and that is taking quite a bit of time. So until then...
I have stopped swings and am trading intraday nowadays. So I would continue trading that way till after the fed meeting. Then I would rethink my strategy. For those reading the charts... note a few things - the recent candles are forming lower highs and lower lows.... I would not be surprised if there may be further profit taking after Fed cuts.

I'm not doing trading as well... Will wait for fed minutes on 31st july. The fed has an inclination to preempt the economic data now so I'm not using unemployment as a gauge anymore. Looking at current economic data, housing sales(bad) and inflation(CPI, good) , jobs(NFP, ADP employment, jobless claims) do not seem to require a rate cut at all at least until such trends persist. Thankfully a strong us dollar is never a mandate for the fed.
If it's a currency war, I'm happy but it's just senseless. The stable position for an equity market and for the fed imo is no rate cut but dovish view. A 25% rate cut with dovish view may just fuel the market further. With such a reversal of opinion by recent fed speakers, most notably the one advocating a preventative measure, to assume the slightest hawkish tone would confuse the markets and render a tanking possible.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[DukeCS33]

I'm not doing trading as well... Will wait for fed minutes on 31st july. The fed has an inclination to preempt the economic data now so I'm not using unemployment as a gauge anymore. Looking at current economic data, housing sales(bad) and inflation(CPI, good) , jobs(NFP, ADP employment, jobless claims) do not seem to require a rate cut at all at least until such trends persist. Thankfully a strong us dollar is never a mandate for the fed.
If it's a currency war, I'm happy but it's just senseless. The stable position for an equity market and for the fed imo is no rate cut but dovish view. A 25% rate cut with dovish view may just fuel the market further. With such a reversal of opinion by recent fed speakers, most notably the one advocating a preventative measure, to assume the slightest hawkish tone would confuse the markets and render a tanking possible.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

It is not entirely without reason... everyone is getting selfish and we see the unravelling of globalisation. Now it is a case of begger thy neighbour and each country looks after its own interest. Supply chains now getting disrupted and we have trade war.... you think the US would stop at China? They are targeting EU next and then when supply chain moves to Vietnam, Vietnam may be next on the firing squad... until such time all the MNC moves back to home base. Currency war is a natural progression on escalation of such tensions and to target currency, interest rate policies would come into play.

 

[churnmaster]

The low allocation won't make any impact to my life. Especially, index investing. If 20% of my portfolio goes up by 10% and rest of th portfolio goes up by 2%, overall it is 3.6%. I would rather conserve that 20% allocation for a deeper crash.

Fair enough, cash pays almost 2% these days so might as well wait for a deeper crash. But the question is how to define a crash or deeper crash. Unless one assigns a numerical value to it, it's just a term. Also, its important to have a plan in advance to invest during / after a crash because one can easily get swayed by all the negative news puked by the media around that time. Finally, investing after the crash doesn't mean picking the bottom. Its just avoiding the big fall.

 

[revhappy]

You have been waiting for the crash since the last GFC.

You need to consider the opportunity cost.

I still built my networth over the last 10 years, I guess I am just wired differently. I can be very frugal and save money and that same quality means that I am very risk averse. It is the mindset, cannot be changed. Anyway, I have reached midlife now and it is too late to course correct.

If people are young now, like 24-25, your advice can help them. Not me.

 

[Trader11]

I still built my networth over the last 10 years, I guess I am just wired differently. I can be very frugal and save money and that same quality means that I am very risk averse. It is the mindset, cannot be changed. Anyway, I have reached midlife now and it is too late to course correct.

If people are young now, like 24-25, your advice can help them. Not me.

You already earning so much per annum, can just put in bonds and retire

 

[Shiny Things]

I still built my networth over the last 10 years, I guess I am just wired differently. I can be very frugal and save money and that same quality means that I am very risk averse. It is the mindset, cannot be changed. Anyway, I have reached midlife now and it is too late to course correct.

Goodness no, this is not true. You're about my age, right - mid-thirties? You're not even halfway through your working life; being too conservative at your age is not a virtue, it's going to hurt you in retirement.

You could absolutely ease into a little bit more of equity risk, and then scale it back down as you get older.

 

[BBCWatcher]

You could absolutely ease into a little bit more of equity risk, and then scale it back down as you get older.

Or shift from 0% to 25% of your investment portfolio in stocks and stay at 25% for the rest of your life. This'd still be ultraconservative.

For example (also ultraconservative), take the next 12 months to shift from 0% to 25% in stocks at a 2 percentage point per month pace. (Round up the last installment.)

 

[Mecisteus]

Goodness no, this is not true. You're about my age, right - mid-thirties? You're not even halfway through your working life; being too conservative at your age is not a virtue, it's going to hurt you in retirement.

You could absolutely ease into a little bit more of equity risk, and then scale it back down as you get older.

Or shift from 0% to 25% of your investment portfolio in stocks and stay at 25% for the rest of your life. This'd still be ultraconservative.

For example (also ultraconservative), take the next 12 months to shift from 0% to 25% in stocks at a 2 percentage point per month pace. (Round up the last installment.)

Its quite difficult to convince revhappy.

He is actually financially literate.

Deep inside his heart, he wants to invest big capital to earn big.

He is just too afraid too face some short term unrealised losses. You can see from the past liquidations of his IWDA portfolio in the last 1+ year.

What needs to be done is to work on the mental and psychological side.

Like BBC said, start with small capital monthly and gradually increase the equity portion.

This way, you will build confidence over time.

Seriously, 0% equity is absolutely nuts.

 

[revhappy]

Goodness no, this is not true. You're about my age, right - mid-thirties? You're not even halfway through your working life; being too conservative at your age is not a virtue, it's going to hurt you in retirement.

You could absolutely ease into a little bit more of equity risk, and then scale it back down as you get older.

I am 39 and half, almost 40. In my view, it is how much you save, that matters more for your retirement, than where you invest. For example someone saving 20% and 100% equities Vs someone saving 50% and 100% debt.

 

[Hot_Dog]

Its quite difficult to convince revhappy.

He is actually financially literate.

Deep inside his heart, he wants to invest big capital to earn big.

He is just too afraid too face some short term unrealised losses. You can see from the past liquidations of his IWDA portfolio in the last 1+ year.

What needs to be done is to work on the mental and psychological side.

Like BBC said, start with small capital monthly and gradually increase the equity portion.

This way, you will build confidence over time.

Seriously, 0% equity is absolutely nuts.

So true, saving is good, it gives one a starting point. But one needs to know why you save. In our current system, definitely need to invest, else there is no other way liao, its either die fast(there is a chance of success) or die slowly (100% confirm + chop).

 

[Trader11]

I am not worried for revhappy when he earns 10K+ per month. He already is a millionaire. That's like top 5% in Singapore