The bears den

[kakashixx]

I am not worried for revhappy when he earns 10K+ per month. He already is a millionaire. That's like top 5% in Singapore

ya lor ya lor, 0% equity also can retire happily ever after. no need to worry

 

[Trader11]

ya lor ya lor, 0% equity also can retire happily ever after. no need to worry

And he is not going to retire in Singapore or US. Most likely in India iirc. The exchange rate will boost his retirement fund. And the cost of living in India is lower.

 

[wutawa]

So true, saving is good, it gives one a starting point. But one needs to know why you save. In our current system, definitely need to invest, else there is no other way liao, its either die fast(there is a chance of success) or die slowly (100% confirm + chop).

Sry to disagree. Investment isnt for everyone. Lots of pitholes to fall into. Many ppl can still survive happily without any investment vs many ppl r suffering from failed investments.

 

[kakashixx]

Sry to disagree. Investment isnt for everyone. Lots of pitholes to fall into. Many ppl can still survive happily without any investment vs many ppl r suffering from failed investments.

Agree, i personally know of many successful ppl who doesnt know a thing about investments. They basically invest in their own career.

 

[BBCWatcher]

I am 39 and half, almost 40. In my view, it is how much you save, that matters more for your retirement, than where you invest. For example someone saving 20% and 100% equities Vs someone saving 50% and 100% debt.

Let's do the math on this, shall we? Let's make the following assumptions:

1. 25 year time horizon (to about age 65);
2. 2%/year net bond yields (long-term average);
3. 4%/year net stock yields (long-term average);
4. 100% bond portfolio v. 25% stock/75% bond portfolio;
5. $1 million investment pool today;
6. $3,000/month saved, no increase.

These are rather pessimistic assumptions, and both portfolios are ultraconservative. The important part here is we're assuming a 200 basis point difference in long-run total net nominal returns between stocks and bonds, which is quite low/pessimistic.

OK, here's how the two scenarios unfold (nominal totals after 25 years, figures approximate/pessimistic since I'm using annualized/delayed contributions and annual compounding):

100% Bond Portfolio: $2,793,697
75% Bond/25% Stock Portfolio: $3,136,544 (12.3% more)

As I mentioned, these are pessimistic assumptions with two ultraconservative portfolios, but Portfolio #2 is still 12.3% bigger at age 65. If you then assume an initial safe withdrawal rate of 3% then that's the difference between $6,984/month and $7,841/month at age 65. That's a pretty big deal, actually.

Vanguard feels quite comfortable with a 30% allocation to stocks at age 65 (their "Target" index funds), so you too could have an ultraconservative portfolio at age 39 that resembles a 65 year old's appropriate risk portfolio. I'm undershooting even that with a 25% allocation, so we're really, really in an ultraconservative posture here.

....Another possible approach is to take a substantial fraction of your wealth and buy a pair of life annuities (joint/survivor or joint/contingent, probably -- and a pair since you could pick a couple quality currencies and a couple high quality insurers) with escalating payouts starting at age 60, let's suppose. Even with insurance carrier overheads this'll likely beat bond yields, and it'll also establish a firm lifestyle floor below which you cannot fall. Then invest everything else going forward using "best practices" principles, including generally accepted/age appropriate levels of risk, global diversification, and avoidance of trading activity. The annuities contain your fears, in other words.

 

[Hot_Dog]

Agree, i personally know of many successful ppl who doesnt know a thing about investments. They basically invest in their own career.

Well you could do that too, invest in a skill that creates real value. But if you have no understanding, one will still be screwed over in the long run, in my opinion.

 

[littleredboy]

Im only in the workforce for 10 years.

I invest into my own education, self upgrading, short courses, all for my career, hoping to advance to a decent position.

When there's crisis, I am turned to for solutions. I hope and hope every year with my contributions and hard work, I get mentioned with rewards, get promoted, or a good raise, or good bonus. Unfortunately, it doesnt mean you are good, you will definitely be rewarded. Career success after all, is determined by others. Frankly, how many opportunities can there be for the whole lot of us to share 1 chicken? Someone bound to get the drumstick, some wings, but perhaps most like me, gets the chicken butt.

Investment is different. It is fair game. You see and reap results based on your own hard work, be it FA or TA. You grade yourself based on your own performance.

I would say if you are to pour everything into investing in your career for your whole life, I think its an even bigger gamble than investing into the market.

 

[Kapish]

Sry to disagree. Investment isnt for everyone. Lots of pitholes to fall into. Many ppl can still survive happily without any investment vs many ppl r suffering from failed investments.

if you never do proper homework on the companies and listen to analysts for investment decisions of course there will be pitfalls. same for life no 100% guarantee you will avoid accident but if you take precaution your risk will be greatly reduced

 

[kakashixx]

Well you could do that too, invest in a skill that creates real value. But if you have no understanding, one will still be screwed over in the long run, in my opinion.

i know myself, im nt that brilliant. so theres a limit to how high i can rise. so i supplement it by investing lor.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Investment is different. It is fair game. You see and reap results based on your own hard work, be it FA or TA. You grade yourself based on your own performance.

It was never a fair game. The market is rigged.

The most obvious examples are central banks. Print money to pump asset prices. This is fair? This is legalised manipulation hahaha.

Asset prices up or down depends on QE programme implementation or withdrawal besides interest rates.

 

[littleredboy]

Of course it is fair.

You already put in the work to understand and have the knowledge that the stock market is rigged, and you can use this knowledge to benefit yourself in your investments/trading.

In career, you can work your arse off for your whole lifetime, and you end up being in the rat race until you die with no achievements, no breakthroughs, what you build, you build for others. Your boss pay you for your time, and you should rightfully return him good work. But in the end what is the probability that you eat the chicken drumstick?

In contrast, every minute you put into learning about investing stays with you the entire lifetime. You own this tacit knowledge, no one can take it away, and you are rewarded based on your own judgement and actions. You make a mistake, it costs you. You make a good buy/sell, it rewards you. This IS fair.

It was never a fair game. The market is rigged.

The most obvious examples are central banks. Print money to pump asset prices. This is fair? This is legalised manipulation hahaha.

Asset prices up or down depends on QE programme implementation or withdrawal besides interest rates.

 

[NewInvestor]

Of course it is fair.

You already put in the work to understand and have the knowledge that the stock market is rigged, and you can use this knowledge to benefit yourself in your investments/trading.

In career, you can work your arse off for your whole lifetime, and you end up being in the rat race until you die with no achievements, no breakthroughs, what you build, you build for others. Your boss pay you for your time, and you should rightfully return him good work. But in the end what is the probability that you eat the chicken drumstick?

In contrast, every minute you put into learning about investing stays with you the entire lifetime. You own this tacit knowledge, no one can take it away, and you are rewarded based on your own judgement and actions. You make a mistake, it costs you. You make a good buy/sell, it rewards you. This IS fair.

Well said......

 

[Mecisteus]

Of course it is fair.

You already put in the work to understand and have the knowledge that the stock market is rigged, and you can use this knowledge to benefit yourself in your investments/trading.

In career, you can work your arse off for your whole lifetime, and you end up being in the rat race until you die with no achievements, no breakthroughs, what you build, you build for others. Your boss pay you for your time, and you should rightfully return him good work. But in the end what is the probability that you eat the chicken drumstick?

In contrast, every minute you put into learning about investing stays with you the entire lifetime. You own this tacit knowledge, no one can take it away, and you are rewarded based on your own judgement and actions. You make a mistake, it costs you. You make a good buy/sell, it rewards you. This IS fair.

Let me just add a little bit on investing/trading.

Don't be afraid to try different investing/trading styles until the style suits you.

If the style is not profitable, change it.

If you are still losing money, better stick to the dummy way of investing.

 

[Mecisteus]

Agree, i personally know of many successful ppl who doesnt know a thing about investments. They basically invest in their own career.

There is a difference between people who doesn't know and people who know about investing.

The people you know, they don't know there is an ETF called IWDA.

revhappy knows about IWDA.

Facts are, he is:

1) Ultra conservative
2) Wants to buy at the market bottom
3) Cannot lose money temporarily
4) Trigger happy

 

[churnmaster]

Of course it is fair.

You already put in the work to understand and have the knowledge that the stock market is rigged, and you can use this knowledge to benefit yourself in your investments/trading.

In career, you can work your arse off for your whole lifetime, and you end up being in the rat race until you die with no achievements, no breakthroughs, what you build, you build for others. Your boss pay you for your time, and you should rightfully return him good work. But in the end what is the probability that you eat the chicken drumstick?

In contrast, every minute you put into learning about investing stays with you the entire lifetime. You own this tacit knowledge, no one can take it away, and you are rewarded based on your own judgement and actions. You make a mistake, it costs you. You make a good buy/sell, it rewards you. This IS fair.

I agree with you ... Very well articulated

 

[Mecisteus]

As I mentioned, these are pessimistic assumptions with two ultraconservative portfolios, but Portfolio #2 is still 12.3% bigger at age 65. If you then assume an initial safe withdrawal rate of 3% then that's the difference between $6,984/month and $7,841/month at age 65. That's a pretty big deal, actually.

revhappy will argue 12.3% is not significantly higher.

 

[peacefulday]

This thread suppose to be a bear, but reversed into bull-lly

 

[churnmaster]

I am 39 and half, almost 40. In my view, it is how much you save, that matters more for your retirement, than where you invest. For example someone saving 20% and 100% equities Vs someone saving 50% and 100% debt.

What happened to the bearish twitter group ? Are they still there?

 

[starfish.starfish]

Of course it is fair.

You already put in the work to understand and have the knowledge that the stock market is rigged, and you can use this knowledge to benefit yourself in your investments/trading.

In career, you can work your arse off for your whole lifetime, and you end up being in the rat race until you die with no achievements, no breakthroughs, what you build, you build for others. Your boss pay you for your time, and you should rightfully return him good work. But in the end what is the probability that you eat the chicken drumstick?

In contrast, every minute you put into learning about investing stays with you the entire lifetime. You own this tacit knowledge, no one can take it away, and you are rewarded based on your own judgement and actions. You make a mistake, it costs you. You make a good buy/sell, it rewards you. This IS fair.

In both environment, learn to play the game.

 

[eD1s0n]

revhappy will argue 12.3% is not significantly higher.

To be fair 12.3% might not be significant to him. Might even be an acceptable cost to be able to sleep soundly at night