The bears den

[revhappy]

Europe, Japan and Hong Kong are at mouth watering valuations, US is still expensive. So what is going to happen? Will US fall or the rest of the world go up. So far, it seems investors are selling RoW more than US, which doesn't make sense.

 

[coolhead]

Oh well...covered uvxy...

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[littleredboy]

Volatilty futures.

What's vx?

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[Trader11]

Europe, Japan and Hong Kong are at mouth watering valuations, US is still expensive. So what is going to happen? Will US fall or the rest of the world go up. So far, it seems investors are selling RoW more than US, which doesn't make sense.

USD is still safe haven.....

 

[revhappy]

reduced my stock:cash from 20:80 to 15:85 since last fri. offloaded quite a bit of es3 and some iwda. thinking of reducing es3 exposure...


iwda peaked at 58.95
will wait at 53.0 to rebalance, if it happens.

Nice, you are quite disciplined to keep your stock exposure low and wait for opportunities.

 

[DukeCS33]

Europe, Japan and Hong Kong are at mouth watering valuations, US is still expensive. So what is going to happen? Will US fall or the rest of the world go up. So far, it seems investors are selling RoW more than US, which doesn't make sense.

Success breeds success. So I think the US market is still the place to be in. And if Europe, Japan and Hong Kong are still falling, why catch a falling knife? Unless you apply Volume spread analysis and see strong buying coming in, I would urge caution when investing in falling markets.

Like you, I see the US markets as over extended relative to other markets and there is value outside of the US but the S&P vs non US markets is just not playing out according to this view... maybe the last few days of correction may just well be the start of a sell off but I am not entirely convinced that the US equity market would fall off the cliff just like that. The surplus liquidity sloshing around would just provide a floor at some stage. Macro wise, the US numbers are holding out well - maybe a bit of slowdown but no where worse than rest of the world. So the liquidity would just be parked within the US markets. And if there is a capitulation, the rest of the world would not escape either and low can go even lower.

 

[limster]

Europe down 3%! And there is no exchange rate cushion either. Atleast in case of Japan the Yen has strengthened when the Nikkei has fallen.

yes I have been buying LLOY, SAN and ING. Good start to August for a dividend collector like myself! Just be prepared to average down

 

[homer123]

Any withholding tax for ING?
HSBC is also looking interesting with higher yield

yes I have been buying LLOY, SAN and ING. Good start to August for a dividend collector like myself! Just be prepared to average down

 

[coolhead]

Europe, Japan and Hong Kong are at mouth watering valuations, US is still expensive. So what is going to happen? Will US fall or the rest of the world go up. So far, it seems investors are selling RoW more than US, which doesn't make sense.

Europe's economic numbers are pretty bad compared to US. Like 80% of the time, the numbers don't meet expectations. In any case, I don't expect this to be a correction for 2 reasons: repricing the impact of the tariff and cancellation of quantitative tightening in September this year.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[limster]

Any withholding tax for ING?
HSBC is also looking interesting with higher yield

yes ING 15%. ING ADR also charge ADR fees (not all ADR charge investors fees, some of them, the company bears the cost). Because my ING position is relatively small, more for diversification, i currently don't mind the fee and there is the convenience of US$ vs Euros.

But moving forward, I am considering buying ING, SAN and other Euro stocks in their home exchange rather than US market to avoid the ADR fees.

HSBC you can also own indirectly through FTSE or HKSE ETFs which have a lot of HSBC in them.

 

[homer123]

Thanks for the info.. I will stick with British stocks ADR which has no WHT.. All of them are on sales now

yes ING 15%. ING ADR also charge ADR fees (not all ADR charge investors fees, some of them, the company bears the cost). Because my ING position is relatively small, more for diversification, i currently don't mind the fee and there is the convenience of US$ vs Euros.

But moving forward, I am considering buying ING, SAN and other Euro stocks in their home exchange rather than US market to avoid the ADR fees.

HSBC you can also own indirectly through FTSE or HKSE ETFs which have a lot of HSBC in them.

 

[churnmaster]

I see. So you are more of a macro trader. I generally take the directional cue from the index performance and target stocks that has a track record of outperforming the index or underperforming to long or short. The index moves provide an advance warning for my intraday trades and cues me into entry or exit.

Futures indicating SP to trade lower but I think its going to be vulnerable to headline tweets. That said, the sell off volume has been amongst the largest in months and it looks like a bearish change of behaviour. Today is Friday so we may have some short covering / profit taking.

Yeah more of a macro trader but I like your methodology.

And yes you were right the market did pullback after the initial plunge.

 

[Mecisteus]

Next week is a good opportunity to accumulate progressively if S&P is down again.

 

[DukeCS33]

Yeah more of a macro trader but I like your methodology.

And yes you were right the market did pullback after the initial plunge.

It is tough to be a macro trader nowadays. The markets are not behaving in the manner as the macro environment is dictating due to flush liquidity considerations... everyone is searching for yield and the next higher yielding asset gets bought regardless of its riskiness... and that's why we have a situation where there are junk bonds trading at negative yields. I only hope that this bubble does not burst and that central banks can unwind their QE programs in time and slowly deflate the bubble. Otherwise, all hell would break loose.

 

[Trader11]

It is tough to be a macro trader nowadays. The markets are not behaving in the manner as the macro environment is dictating due to flush liquidity considerations... everyone is searching for yield and the next higher yielding asset gets bought regardless of its riskiness... and that's why we have a situation where there are junk bonds trading at negative yields. I only hope that this bubble does not burst and that central banks can unwind their QE programs in time and slowly deflate the bubble. Otherwise, all hell would break loose.

Mr Market behaves like a spoit kid that throws tantrum. Exactly like Trump

 

[lasnoblur]

Success breeds success. So I think the US market is still the place to be in. And if Europe, Japan and Hong Kong are still falling, why catch a falling knife? Unless you apply Volume spread analysis and see strong buying coming in, I would urge caution when investing in falling markets.

Like you, I see the US markets as over extended relative to other markets and there is value outside of the US but the S&P vs non US markets is just not playing out according to this view... maybe the last few days of correction may just well be the start of a sell off but I am not entirely convinced that the US equity market would fall off the cliff just like that. The surplus liquidity sloshing around would just provide a floor at some stage. Macro wise, the US numbers are holding out well - maybe a bit of slowdown but no where worse than rest of the world. So the liquidity would just be parked within the US markets. And if there is a capitulation, the rest of the world would not escape either and low can go even lower.

yup US market still holding well compared to other indices.

have been ongoing for couple of years.

 

[homedriver]

Yeah, US marker not much impact like STI

 

[Kapish]

Mr Market behaves like a spoit kid that throws tantrum. Exactly like Trump

you do realise that trump is causing most of the volatility in the markets right?
the market is fine until trump do or say something idiotic

 

[Dividends Warrior]

that's why we have a situation where there are junk bonds trading at negative yields.

Seriously!?

 

[DukeCS33]

Seriously!?

Yes seriously.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...tart-taking-hold-in-europe-s-junk-bond-market

Highlight from that article -

High yield borrowers with bonds denominated in euros trading with a negative yield include:
Ardagh Packaging Finance plc /Ardagh Holdings USA Inc.
Altice Luxembourg SA
Altice France SA
Axalta Coating Systems LLC
Constellium NV
Arena Luxembourg Finance Sarl
EC Finance Plc
Nexi Capital SpA
Nokia Corp.
LSF10 Wolverine Investments SCA
Smurfit Kappa Acquisitions ULC
OI European Group BV
Becton Dickinson Euro Finance Sarl
WMG Acquisition Corp.

Imagine a company that is not managed well being paid money when they issue a bond... how would they deploy the monies raised? If they were not efficient prior, they would be less so in an environment with negative yields. The efficient capital allocation mechanism has truly broken down and inefficient companies are kept afloat...