The Continuum

marshmallow96

marshmallow96

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drkcynic said:
Actually HDB upgraders are unlikely to buy a new launch. Where do they stay in the meantime? They will more likely be the ones picking up from the owners upon TOP. Also at 2.5m quantum for the 3 bedders, there are alot of ready options for hdb upgraders. Don't think they will all in just to wait for TOP. So we can more or less take 90-95% of current HDB owners out of the equation.

The rest, will be investors, and private upgraders, kids with old money that forms the biggest pool of buyers.
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Why you think HDB upgrades are unlikely to buy new launch leh… Most of the upgraders I know bought new launch! Just move to stay with parents lor
 
marshmallow96

marshmallow96

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MrGDebonair said:
Hello korkors, am currently holding TG unit. I am not an eastie myself but I used to go to Bournemouth road for piano lessons twice a week in the past so quite familiar with the area. I did not however realise that the Haig Road area near Paya Lebar is quite lup sup as I was walking in the area at night with my gf. Isn't that where TC is? Reminds me of Balestier v Novena lol (please don't hurt me).

Also, as TC will set a new price benchmark for D15, will be interesting to see where TG and TC fall below that. I don't think many of the older FH condos in the immediate vicinity will catch up in prices because they are usually small boutique developments, different products or in any case, cannot match the amenities provided by the new launches.

Re schools, don't know if anyone here has experience but, the second in priority for P1 admissions is if your house falls into the 1-2km radius from the school. Does anybody have experience with how much worse you fair in terms of chances versus the 1km radius kids? Say it's D15's best school, Tao Nan. How many primary school kids are there in a 1km of condos haha. Is it really as bad as people make it sound such that people scramble to buy houses just for that?
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Re your school question: you need to understand how the balloting works. Say if number of people applying exceeds the number of seats, MOE will first see if you are citizens or PR. If citizens alone more than the number of seats, PR immediately out, no chance to ballot.

after that, they will look at this group of citizens. Say if there are 40 seats but 50 citizens apply. If 30 out of these 50 are within 1km, the other 20 are 1-2km, then these 30 within 1km will auto go in first, the remaining 10 seats will be balloted among the 20 guys from 1-2km. On news and balloting stats they call this “balloting for SC 1-2km”.

but if there are 40 seats and 50 citizens apply, 45 of these citizens are within 1km, 5 are 1-2km, then these 45 within 1km will go for balloting for the 40 seats, that’s what people call “ballot within 1km for SC”. That 5 people at 1-2km has zero chance to smell balloting at all.

that’s why it’s important to be within 1km to have a sure chance to participate in school ballot
 
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ktyandkyc

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Wonder abt the knock on effect on blossom n continuum. Probably a downer for investment units
 
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De SantaClaus

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marshmallow96 said:
Re your school question: you need to understand how the balloting works. Say if number of people applying exceeds the number of seats, MOE will first see if you are citizens or PR. If citizens alone more than the number of seats, PR immediately out, no chance to ballot.

after that, they will look at this group of citizens. Say if there are 40 seats but 50 citizens apply. If 30 out of these 50 are within 1km, the other 20 are 1-2km, then these 30 within 1km will auto go in first, the remaining 10 seats will be balloted among the 20 guys from 1-2km. On news and balloting stats they call this “balloting for SC 1-2km”.

but if there are 40 seats and 50 citizens apply, 45 of these citizens are within 1km, 5 are 1-2km, then these 45 within 1km will go for balloting for the 40 seats, that’s what people call “ballot within 1km for SC”. That 5 people at 1-2km has zero chance to smell balloting at all.

that’s why it’s important to be within 1km to have a sure chance to participate in school ballot
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The challenge is that if there are many new launches & many new BTOs, even within 1km requires quite a bit of luck... Like getting into Kong Hwa. In 2022, 129 applicants applied for 64 slots in phase 2c, so even if you are within 1km the odds are only around 50% in 2022. Imagine once all the condos & BTOs are completed, likely the odds of getting in when you are within 1km is much lower. Same apply for St Nics & the Lentor launches.

https://sgschooling.com/school/kong-hwa.html
Looks like Kong Hwa is only popular since 2019.
 
marshmallow96

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De SantaClaus said:
The challenge is that if there are many new launches & many new BTOs, even within 1km requires quite a bit of luck... Like getting into Kong Hwa. In 2022, 129 applicants applied for 64 slots in phase 2c, so even if you are within 1km the odds are only around 50% in 2022. Imagine once all the condos & BTOs are completed, likely the odds of getting in when you are within 1km is much lower. Same apply for St Nics & the Lentor launches.

https://sgschooling.com/school/kong-hwa.html
Looks like Kong Hwa is only popular since 2019.
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It’s not that Kong Hwa is only popular since 2019, but it’s the website you looked at only show the balloting distance from 2019 onwards (that guy only started collecting data since then). Those who have been following KS parents forum balloting history will know that Kong Hwa ballot every year within 1km for 2C.

In the sgschooling website, you look at the “applied” vs “taken”. Applicants are consistent more than seats available, indicating balloting will occur
 
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gonewiththesmart

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TG, TC, DG, within 1 km of Kong Hwa.
Then, historical data can be ignored.

GLS site immediate south of Tembusu is just outside 1 km of Kong Hwa.
 
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ktyandkyc

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marshmallow96

marshmallow96

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gonewiththesmart said:
I think all TG, TC, DG, and future Tembusu GLS sites within 1 km of Kong Hwa.
Then, historical data can be ignored.
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It’s true that balloting stats depends a lot on the demographic changes in the surrounding, so if it’s an area with a lot of new development, you cannot rely on 5 years ago data to think that you can get into the school easily. That said, for those popular schools which have been balloting within 1km for decades, rest assured that they will continue to be balloting within 1km and with even higher oversubscription rate :s13: That’s when old historical data can be referred - by telling you how popular they have been over the years :s13:

gonewiththesmart said:
You can use the address apply p1, if top within 2 years of p1 admission. Right!?
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Correct. The vacant possession needs to be within 2 years of P1 entry.

MrGDebonair said:
Thanks for the insights guys, very interesting!

Re calculation of the 1km radius, I believe the official one used by the government and MOE is found on Onemap and it seems like they cover the entire project the moment it touches the 1km radius: https://www.onemap.gov.sg/main/v2/schoolquery
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Yup always use OneMap - don’t bother with any other websites. OneMap is the one that MOE and the schools use.
 
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