Treasure Crest

[mortal_azazel]

As Long as they manage to instill buyer's mind that 800 psf is a std price, any figure below is gonna be attractive now...

 

[windwaver]

I will reference EC prices to not only other ECs but also PCs. This usually gives me more accurate data to work with especially those ECs that has hit MOP.

1 thing for sure, NW is going to be the worst selling project and I am interested in gathering data for that lol.

 

[Pynchmail]

I agree that reference to new PCs would also be relevant. New PCs are going for $1000 psf and above, so ECs at $800 psf, which is a huge 20% cheaper can continue to attract buyers. For a typical unit of about 1000 sf, the saving is $200,000. This is before the government grant. And if you factor in interest that needs to be paid over the next 25-30 years, the saving is even more.

 

[grix17]

I agree that reference to new PCs would also be relevant. New PCs are going for $1000 psf and above, so ECs at $800 psf, which is a huge 20% cheaper can continue to attract buyers.

However, these prices would be relevant to the surrounding location/region. That's why some ECs lose out more than others due to price reference to surrounding property.

 

[PostCountWarrior[+1]]

I agree that reference to new PCs would also be relevant. New PCs are going for $1000 psf and above, so ECs at $800 psf, which is a huge 20% cheaper can continue to attract buyers. For a typical unit of about 1000 sf, the saving is $200,000. This is before the government grant. And if you factor in interest that needs to be paid over the next 25-30 years, the saving is even more.

http://www.nextinsight.net/index.ph...-investment-a-hdb-flat-ended-in-a-100000-loss

a lesson from history. the current over supply of ECs remains me of HDB oversupplying the market esp in outskirts in late nineties. There was so much supply that u lost out if you bought it first hand while others bought the empty lots next door to yours at a lower price. If you don't have holding power, and suay suay property market keep going down, you may be selling at loss.

No one can know for sure how low the property market will go, but I think Singaporeans and the government are not stupid. Government will tighten EC supply going forward just like early 2000s to clear the backlog. Singaporeans will also wait and see before committing. When supply starts to dry up and demand starts becoming more than supply, then maybe we will see the bottom. As of now, especially after seeing NW allocation recently, I think the bottom is not there yet....

 

[Pynchmail]

http://www.nextinsight.net/index.ph...-investment-a-hdb-flat-ended-in-a-100000-loss

a lesson from history. the current over supply of ECs remains me of HDB oversupplying the market esp in outskirts in late nineties. There was so much supply that u lost out if you bought it first hand while others bought the empty lots next door to yours at a lower price. If you don't have holding power, and suay suay property market keep going down, you may be selling at loss.

No one can know for sure how low the property market will go, but I think Singaporeans and the government are not stupid. Government will tighten EC supply going forward just like early 2000s to clear the backlog. Singaporeans will also wait and see before committing. When supply starts to dry up and demand starts becoming more than supply, then maybe we will see the bottom. As of now, especially after seeing NW allocation recently, I think the bottom is not there yet....

Agree that no one know how low the market will go, and there is a chance that we can lose out if we buy now. Deciding on buying ECs is tricky because we also need to consider that as we grow older, we can borrow less, plus if we exceed the income ceiling, we don't qualify anymore. Rules may also change, like in the 2000s, there were no new ECs for many years. So buy now got risks, wait also got risks, we need to do our sum and consider very carefully.

 

[ecobuyer]

Buying a house and a car involves "head" and "heart"

Using car or COE as an example, based on "head", would you part $55,000 for COE?

Based on "demand and supply", COE prices should come down as we are seeing more and more supply (For Cat A, more than 2,000 supply vs 3XX supply few years ago)

However, who can predict the emergence of Uber, Grab, car rental companies that bidded few hundred COEs each round.

More recently, the the government relax the loan requirements even when COE prices are around $45,000. Who can predict this?

Apply to ECs,

Based on demand and supply, the government indeed launched quite a number of land parcels in the last few years thought they have cut down significantly.

One major restraint on potential EC buyers is the 30% MSR which was introduced in end-2013. This slowed down the EC buying.

You can check online loan calculator or banker. One may be able to borrow $800,000 for a new EC but can borrow more than $1 mil for a private condo because private condo is not subjected to 30% MSR.

So, if the government relax the MSR as they did for loan of new cars, it will likely attract new EC buyers.

The question is whether and when will the government relax MSR?

This is just an example of an unknown/ risk that no one knows.

Same for COE, if the COE prices come down further, the government has various other options eg slow down the vehicle growth rate or claw back/ reduce COE supply. All these will likely increase COE prices.

My point is it is rather difficult to predict based on demand and supply as there are many other factors, one of which is government policy.

Also many buyers buy with a "heart" even when COE prices are $55,000, they still opt for new cars for various reasons eg the smell of new leather, shiok factor, ...

Not forgetting, the median household income from work of Singaporeans in 2015 is $8,666 ($8,292 in 2014). Needs to stress is household income from work. It does not include other income eg rental, interest, dividends etc.

Median means 50% of household earn at least $8,666 from work. So if you earn $8,666, you are the 50th household out of 100 household.

 

[ecobuyer]

Buying a house and a car involves "head" and "heart"

Using car or COE as an example, based on "head", would you part $55,000 for COE?

Based on "demand and supply", COE prices should come down as we are seeing more and more supply (For Cat A, more than 2,000 supply vs 3XX supply few years ago)

However, who can predict the emergence of Uber, Grab, car rental companies that bidded few hundred COEs each round.

More recently, the the government relax the loan requirements even when COE prices are around $45,000. Who can predict this?

Apply to ECs,

Based on demand and supply, the government indeed launched quite a number of land parcels in the last few years thought they have cut down significantly.

One major restraint on potential EC buyers is the 30% MSR which was introduced in end-2013. This slowed down the EC buying.

You can check online loan calculator or banker. One may be able to borrow $800,000 for a new EC but can borrow more than $1 mil for a private condo because private condo is not subjected to 30% MSR.

So, if the government relax the MSR as they did for loan of new cars, it will likely attract new EC buyers.

The question is whether and when will the government relax MSR?

This is just an example of an unknown/ risk that no one knows.

Same for COE, if the COE prices come down further, the government has various other options eg slow down the vehicle growth rate or claw back/ reduce COE supply. All these will likely increase COE prices.

My point is it is rather difficult to predict based on demand and supply as there are many other factors, one of which is government policy.

Also many buyers buy with a "heart" even when COE prices are $55,000, they still opt for new cars for various reasons eg the smell of new leather, shiok factor, ...

Not forgetting, the median household income from work of Singaporeans in 2015 is $8,666 ($8,292 in 2014). Needs to stress is household income from work. It does not include other income eg rental, interest, dividends etc.

Median means 50% of household earn at least $8,666 from work. So if you earn $8,666, you are the 50th household out of 100 household.

To add on, median household income from work of Singaporeans was $6,343 in 2010.

In 2015, was $8,666.

In just few years, household income increased 36%.

Source is below.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/bottom-30-top-10-of/2551154.html

 

[fulaien]

Not forgetting, the median household income from work of Singaporeans in 2015 is $8,666 ($8,292 in 2014). Needs to stress is household income from work. It does not include other income eg rental, interest, dividends etc.

Median means 50% of household earn at least $8,666 from work. So if you earn $8,666, you are the 50th household out of 100 household.

Median household income includes the whole family, including both parents who are working, together with children who are working.

The govt tends to use stats to paint an overly optimistic picture.

I think for now, if to buy a EC to stay is ok, but maybe not to invest.

 

[ecobuyer]

Agreed. But it also include household where only the dad/ mum is working and children are studying (or no children).

Bigger point is monthly household income of Singaporeans is going up and quite fast, from $6,342 in 2010 to $8,666 in 2015.

We are talking about 50% of the households (median) monthly income from work. Increasingly, more and more Singaporeans have non-work income. The effective income is higher.

 

[Fizzical]

Agreed. But it also include household where only the dad/ mum is working and children are studying (or no children).

Bigger point is monthly household income of Singaporeans is going up and quite fast, from $6,342 in 2010 to $8,666 in 2015.

We are talking about 50% of the households (median) monthly income from work. Increasingly, more and more Singaporeans have non-work income. The effective income is higher.

Should make a comparison when govt policy back then was different. Hence the appreciation could be higher.

 

[grix17]

From a purely statistical point of view, arguments based on median are not sound. It only gives an indication of where the middle is.

Imagine you have the highest earners increasing but the lower ones staying put, this will not change. But if you have, say the top 60% households moving up by 2k in 5 years, which is really nothing, then the median will go up by 2k.

Median salary is a flaky argument only to give the government the leeway to raise prices. Of course you could say that only the higher earners will be going for EC and PC, or any general argument just based on 1 figure.

The overall impression, whether intended or not, is that Singaporeans are getting wealthier. But if you compare that with the price index, is that really the case? In relative terms, all figures are going up.

What about the people on the lower rungs of the salary scale? They are not represented at all by this median.

 

[ecobuyer]

Should make a comparison when govt policy back then was different. Hence the appreciation could be higher.

The comparison is based on figures from cna which in turn is from dept of stats.

If u want other years, u ve to go to dept of stats for the figures.

Whether we re using median, average or by the different percentile income gp, we cant deny that household incomne is trending upwards.

Using the median or 50% percentile as an example, we can see how income has increased quite significantly. This may partly explain the continued demand for cars, properties...

Those potential buyers for ecs could be likely in the top 50% percentile. In other words, they are likely to earn at least 8666 monthly from work. Note that the effective income cld be higher if they ve other income sources.

50% of singapore households = ? Singapore households (earn at least 8666 monthly from work)

 

[ecobuyer]

Thanks for pointing out.

Just checked that we have more than 1.2 mil resident households.

50% of it = More than 600,000 resident households earning at least $8,666 (including bonus and CPF which can be used to fund the monthly instalments).

This is quite a significant number.

No need to look at top 50%.

Top 30% = 360,000 resident households earning much more.

More significantly, household income from work has increased quite significantly in the last few years.

This may be one reason why the government launched so many ECs to cater to Singaporeans whose income has increased over the years.

 

[love_indulgence]

Do i need to submit eapp to view the showflat? Just wanna have a feel and look before committing to one.

 

[mero_cwj]

Do i need to submit eapp to view the showflat? Just wanna have a feel and look before committing to one.

No, of course not. Just walk in or, if you have an agent, arrange for him/her to give you a tour of the showflat

 

[ChangWD]

Do i need to submit eapp to view the showflat? Just wanna have a feel and look before committing to one.

Last day of show flat as stated, not sure tmr onwards still have or not...

 

[windwaver]

No, of course not. Just walk in or, if you have an agent, arrange for him/her to give you a tour of the showflat

Do i need to submit eapp to view the showflat? Just wanna have a feel and look before committing to one.

No but usually an agent will always target those without one.

 

[Kokky83]

Any idea wats the total eapp count now

 

[Advancer]

Last day of show flat as stated, not sure tmr onwards still have or not...

Last day of e-app only. Showflat will be there for a few months or even years.