USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[stanlawj]

This is a complete sell.
TSSI is AI infrastructure system integrator (partner for Dell and xAI)

 

[yslvlys]

Wow USD at 1.29X SGD!~

 

[stanlawj]

Trump has folded. Back doors open wide.
China exports of small packages will be transshipped through other countries.



Update: TEMU, SHEIN only show shopping items available from US warehouses.
What they don't reveal, is how the items got there.

 

[yslvlys]

I added KNSL, ZETA and CART last 2 nights.

Bought some BOX, CART, CTAS and DOCN

CART on fire yesterday ~ Up 13+%!

 

[elvintay07]

CART on fire yesterday ~ Up 13+%!

All the bears totally wiped out. Haha

 

[tazzycorner]

All the bears totally wiped out. Haha

The S&P 500 is up 9 days in a row, its longest winning streak in 20 years.

 

[aurvandil]

Most of the tariffs will go away eventually but the damage has been done, as many have pointed out lately, Trump has tarnished America's brand.

The market is the final judge.

Price action suggests there's been no lasting damage. Futures closed near 5700 on Friday, and momentum looks set to test 5850. A clean break there would put us back in the all-time high trading range—right where we were before Deep Seek knocked things off balance.

In bonds, the yield curve looks healthy, with about a 100 bps spread between the long and short end. That kind of structure hints at a mild recession at worst—nothing close to the doomsday scenario hyped by our favorite YouTubers.

There’s no denying the global order is shifting, and longing for the past is pointless. The Ukraine war has shattered Russia—recovery will take a generation. Once Europe re-arms and goes nuclear, we’ll settle into a classic MAD-style peace. Familiar, if not exactly comforting.

China, however, remains the real strategic concern. Tariffs aren’t going away; expect a diluted but permanent version of what we have now. The baseline 10% universal rate will likely stay—it’s essential for blocking transshipment cheating. General goods will probably settle around 60%, while strategic items will carry much steeper tariffs to counteract Zhongnanhai’s subsidies. Countries like Vietnam and Cambodia will see rates around 30%, which, with middleman markups, effectively shuts down the geo-laundering workaround.

If Chinese firms want to stay in the game, they’ll need to relocate—hollowing out Chinese manufacturing in the process. The market sees this as a sustainable equilibrium, which explains the rebound. For China, it’s going to hurt and we are going to see a lot of Chinese middle class fall back into poverty. There won't however be a sudden collapse as they have more than enough resources to keep things going. Instead of Japanese-style stagnation, we’re now looking at a slow, deliberate decline to defang China’s economic threat to the U.S.

 

[stanlawj]

The market is the final judge.

Price action suggests there's been no lasting damage. Futures closed near 5700 on Friday, and momentum looks set to test 5850. A clean break there would put us back in the all-time high trading range—right where we were before Deep Seek knocked things off balance.

In bonds, the yield curve looks healthy, with about a 100 bps spread between the long and short end. That kind of structure hints at a mild recession at worst—nothing close to the doomsday scenario hyped by our favorite YouTubers.

There’s no denying the global order is shifting, and longing for the past is pointless. The Ukraine war has shattered Russia—recovery will take a generation. Once Europe re-arms and goes nuclear, we’ll settle into a classic MAD-style peace. Familiar, if not exactly comforting.

China, however, remains the real strategic concern. Tariffs aren’t going away; expect a diluted but permanent version of what we have now. The baseline 10% universal rate will likely stay—it’s essential for blocking transshipment. General goods will probably settle around 60%, while strategic items will carry much steeper tariffs to counteract Zhongnanhai’s subsidies. Countries like Vietnam and Cambodia will see rates around 30%, which, with middleman markups, effectively shuts down the geo-laundering workaround.

If Chinese firms want to stay in the game, they’ll need to relocate—hollowing out Chinese manufacturing in the process. The market sees this as a sustainable equilibrium, which explains the rebound. For China, it’s going to hurt and we are going to see a lot of Chinese middle class fall back into poverty. There won't however be a sudden collapse as they have more than enough resources to keep things going. Instead of Japanese-style stagnation, we’re now looking at a slow, deliberate decline to defang China’s economic threat to the U.S.

Bezos will thank you for promoting US exceptionalism.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/02/jef...ll-up-to-4point8-billion-in-amazon-stock.html

Jeff Bezos discloses plan to sell up to $4.8 billion in Amazon stock​

 

[aurvandil]

The end of de-minimis is going to have a devastating impact on China SME's. HK which does a lot of this trade is going to be particularly hard hit. This is a relatively safe political move as items shipped this way are not part of US CPI calculations. This will therefore not lead to an increase in US inflation.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/02/economy/de-minimis-packages-tariff

 

[stanlawj]

The end of de-minimis is going to have a devastating impact on China SME's. HK which does a lot of this trade is going to be particularly hard hit. This is a relatively safe political move as items shipped this way are not part of US CPI calculations. This will therefore not lead to an increase in US inflation.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/02/economy/de-minimis-packages-tariff

Read my analysis:

Trump has folded. Back doors open wide.
China exports of small packages will be transshipped through other countries.



Update: TEMU, SHEIN only show shopping items available from US warehouses.
What they don't reveal, is how the items got there.

That's why stocks continue to rise. There is no real tariff war... it's all going to be watered down/exempted/backdoored during the reindustrialisation of US (which is decades long effort).

 

[stanlawj]

The end of de-minimis is going to have a devastating impact on China SME's. HK which does a lot of this trade is going to be particularly hard hit. This is a relatively safe political move as items shipped this way are not part of US CPI calculations. This will therefore not lead to an increase in US inflation.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/02/economy/de-minimis-packages-tariff

Also as elaborated previously, market is now shifting to AI application layer.
Top performing tech stock is PLTR (besides NFLX which is obviously due to no China exposure).
Natgas up, crude oil down (natgas dominates new power generation builds for AI datacenters).

US-China tariff war narrative is now in rear view. Trump will be expected to carve out exemptions/delays to implementations in order to prevent price spikes or supply shortages that will hurt his voting approvals.

 

[elvintay07]

Also as elaborated previously, market is now shifting to AI application layer.
Top performing tech stock is PLTR (besides NFLX which is obviously due to no China exposure).
Natgas up, crude oil down (natgas dominates new power generation builds for AI datacenters).

US-China tariff war narrative is now in rear view. Trump will be expected to carve out exemptions/delays to implementations in order to prevent price spikes or supply shortages that will hurt his voting approvals.

No simi relief rally and also new low liao ah?

 

[aurvandil]

Read my analysis:

That's why stocks continue to rise. There is no real tariff war... it's all going to be watered down/exempted/backdoored during the reindustrialisation of US (which is decades long effort).

Trade moves like water and will follow the path of least resistance.

The SME decimation which will happen are all the small mom and pop in China who source items cheaply from local factories and sell direct to the US. These neither have the resources or the connections to go around the tariffs and will be wiped out.

If the recent Canton Fair is anything to go by, there will be plenty of new re-sellers popping up in new jurisdictions like Africa and the Middle East.

 

[elvintay07]

Actually you all should stop reading news on X. More you read, more you scare

 

[apple459721]

 

[d5dude]

The market is the final judge.

Price action suggests there's been no lasting damage. Futures closed near 5700 on Friday, and momentum looks set to test 5850. A clean break there would put us back in the all-time high trading range—right where we were before Deep Seek knocked things off balance.

In bonds, the yield curve looks healthy, with about a 100 bps spread between the long and short end. That kind of structure hints at a mild recession at worst—nothing close to the doomsday scenario hyped by our favorite YouTubers.

There’s no denying the global order is shifting, and longing for the past is pointless. The Ukraine war has shattered Russia—recovery will take a generation. Once Europe re-arms and goes nuclear, we’ll settle into a classic MAD-style peace. Familiar, if not exactly comforting.

China, however, remains the real strategic concern. Tariffs aren’t going away; expect a diluted but permanent version of what we have now. The baseline 10% universal rate will likely stay—it’s essential for blocking transshipment cheating. General goods will probably settle around 60%, while strategic items will carry much steeper tariffs to counteract Zhongnanhai’s subsidies. Countries like Vietnam and Cambodia will see rates around 30%, which, with middleman markups, effectively shuts down the geo-laundering workaround.

If Chinese firms want to stay in the game, they’ll need to relocate—hollowing out Chinese manufacturing in the process. The market sees this as a sustainable equilibrium, which explains the rebound. For China, it’s going to hurt and we are going to see a lot of Chinese middle class fall back into poverty. There won't however be a sudden collapse as they have more than enough resources to keep things going. Instead of Japanese-style stagnation, we’re now looking at a slow, deliberate decline to defang China’s economic threat to the U.S.

I dun think the market is pricing in any sort of permanently higher rate of tariffs at all, certainly not 60% on China. The expectation is that Trump will fold again since he has already folded several times with the various exemptions and carveouts.

Trump's antics have definitely damaged the US brand, there has been foreign capital flows out of US in recent weeks (dollar is very weak despite widening yield differentials), I think this is unlikely to change for quite some time, stocks would be much lower if it wasnt for the AI trade (secular tail wind).

 

[d5dude]

Read my analysis:

That's why stocks continue to rise. There is no real tariff war... it's all going to be watered down/exempted/backdoored during the reindustrialisation of US (which is decades long effort).

China has also quietly removed tariffs on imports like Ethane, which is very difficult to replace.

 

[d5dude]

Japan threatening to sell their USTs would have been unthinkable before Trump got into office.

 

[elvintay07]

All these stock market news is like Singapore election news. Talk till got dragon got tiger. In the end, still same. Eventually market can only go up? Haha

 

[888888888888]

As expected, the bear rally due to low liquidity and slope of hope news happened.

Good luck to those who longed here in the US equity and bond markets. Hope you are watching carefully.

can always add a position for every we're so back post.