UST no longer safe haven?

DFR6868

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Gold is safer



"What currency is going to replace the USD as global reserve currency?" Central Banks: "No currency is going to replace the USD, but gold has been replacing USTs as primary reserve asset for 11 yrs. Gold has crushed USTs in that time, but most still refuse to accept reality."
 

DFR6868

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not normal as it looks to be the new normal



30Y bond yields were up another 10bp on Monday, to 4.90%. For the month of April, the 30Y yield is up 33bp, even if the S&P500 is down around 10%. Over the last few decades, we have never before observed the combination of dramatic equity declines, declining short-end yields, and notable rises in 30Y rates. Nothing is normal about this...
 

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Philly Fed Services Collapse: The Canary Just Died The latest Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey came in at –42.7, the worst reading since the COVID crash. This isn’t just a weak data point it’s a flashing red signal that U.S. service sector demand is collapsing, and fast. Historically, services have been the stabilizing force during downturns, but this print confirms that weakness has now spread into the last pillar holding up the post-pandemic economy. What makes this more dangerous is the context: commodities are rising (WTI crude, gold, copper), bond yields are falling, and the 10Y–2Y spread just steepened sharply classic signs of markets anticipating either a policy panic or a deeper economic contraction. Add to that imploding port volumes, margin calls at FX firms like Argentex, and a rising dollar, and it becomes clear: we’re not in a soft landing this is the prelude to a credit-event-style stagflationary downturn. The services collapse, alongside sticky input prices, suggests a squeeze where demand is falling but costs aren’t, a lethal combination for margins, hiring, and growth. The broader risk? That policymakers respond too late or not at all and the slowdown cascades into employment and credit markets before they can intervene.
 

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Keep watching the U.S. Dollar: As the S&P 500 rises +5% in 2 days on “tariff de-escalation” headlines, the U.S. Dollar Index, $DXY, is up a mere 0.2% today. The U.S. Dollar is just about the only asset not buying these headlines today. Furthermore, the U.S. Dollar has been a key leading indicator of trade war sentiment. It’s almost as though the U.S. Dollar thinks U.S. trade headlines have lost credibility. Something is off.
 

DFR6868

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wat will become of the second israel?



SAD! Loss of confidence in dollar assets across the board - unprecedented
 

final1

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wat will become of the second israel?



SAD! Loss of confidence in dollar assets across the board - unprecedented

financial assets go up and they go down everyday (for daily reasons that people like 'so called experts' or 'news organisations' try to 'guess' why ; but no one really knows the TRUE REASON why an entire market or individual share goes up or down on any given day). Only God can tell you the TRUE REASON.
That's how it works.
This is basic.
Don't conflate the two.
 

noobynoob

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financial assets go up and they go down everyday (for daily reasons that people like 'so called experts' or 'news organisations' try to 'guess' why ; but no one really knows the TRUE REASON why an entire market or individual share goes up or down on any given day). Only God can tell you the TRUE REASON.
That's how it works.
This is basic.
Don't conflate the two.
exactly. all these analysis based on hindsight damn pointless.
 

DFR6868

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:sneaky:



Everyone says they’d pay more for “Made in the USA.” I tested it. We make a $129 filtered showerhead manufactured in China. With tariffs surging to 170%, we explored reshoring. We found a U.S. supplier. Our costs nearly tripled. I ran a clean A/B test:

...
 

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BREAKING: The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -8.1 points in April, recording the 3rd negative reading this year. More importantly, 6-month outlook for general business conditions plummeted to -7.4, the lowest in 24 years. Additionally, the 6-month outlook for new orders fell to -6.6, the lowest in history. Not even the 2008 Financial Crisis saw such a grim outlook. All while prices paid outlook spiked to 65.6, the highest since mid-2022.

Stagflation is here.
 

DFR6868

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:sneaky:



Not surprising. American Apparel ran a similar A/B test in 2017 — MiUSA t-shirt $22; globally sourced t-shirt for $18 — MIUSA hoodie for $48; globally sourced hoodie for $38 About a 20% price difference. Majority of consumers choose the globally sourced version.
 

DFR6868

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all are but just the requiem of pax americana

the elephant in the room




I've genuinely never seen this. Just today: -
WSJ editorial board: "China called Mr. Trump’s bluff and seems to have won this round" -
Jamie Dimon: Trump’s tariffs plan is “stupid.” -
Financial Times: "The US is no longer indispensable" -
Bloomberg: Trump's strategy to confront China is "doomed to fail"
 

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manpower are now being brain drained to china



China Attracts South Korea’s Top National Scholars, Building Research Institutes for Them – JoongAng Ilbo

Some of South Korea’s most prominent national scholars have moved to Chinese universities. They are globally recognized authorities in basic research fields critical to advanced technologies such as semiconductors, batteries, and quantum science, where global competition is fierce. While China, locked in a tech supremacy race with the U.S., accelerates its R&D by attracting Korea’s top scholars, South Korea shows neither the will nor the strategy to retain its talent.

According to industry and academic sources on the 23rd, Lee Young-hee, an HCR distinguished professor at Sungkyunkwan University and a world authority on carbon nanotubes (CNTs)—critical for next-generation semiconductor and battery technology—has been appointed at Hubei University of Technology in China, where he is leading semiconductor and quantum research institutes. After retiring from the Institute for Basic Science (IBS) where he served as director of the Center for Integrated Nanostructure Physics, Professor Lee was unable to find a stable research position in Korea and thus chose to move to China.

Prior to this, in 2023, theoretical physicist Lee Ki-myung, former vice president of the Korea Institute for Advanced Study (KIAS), also moved to China after retirement, becoming a professor at the Beijing Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Applications (BIMSA). Professors Lee Young-hee and Lee Ki-myung were selected as Korea’s first and second National Scholars in 2005 and 2006 respectively by the Ministry of Education and the National Research Foundation of Korea but could not secure positions domestically. In contrast, China is pushing aggressively to recruit science and engineering scholars globally, with each province’s universities leading the efforts to boost "R&D rise."

Pushed Out After Retirement in Korea, Immediately Recruited by China

The IBS research center led by Professor Lee since 2012 achieved significant results in CNTs, graphene, water-splitting catalysts, and two-dimensional (2D) semiconductor research. Professor Lee had been among the world’s top 1% most-cited researchers since 2018. However, with his mandatory retirement at the end of 2023, the center was disbanded. According to IBS regulations, a center director must be a "full-time professor at a domestic university," and the center automatically terminates upon the director’s retirement. About 20 researchers scattered to domestic and international universities and research institutions. Professor Lee continued his research as a distinguished (non-tenured) professor at Sungkyunkwan University, but this contract also ends in August.

Professor Lee reportedly submitted research project proposals to the Ministry of Science and ICT, trying to continue his work in Korea, but was unsuccessful. He declined to comment when contacted by JoongAng Ilbo.

After recruiting Professor Lee, Hubei University of Technology established a 16,000㎡ (about 4,850 pyeong) Low-dimensional Quantum Materials (LQM) Research Institute. The university is now recruiting researchers, offering a package including "a world-renowned research team led by Professor Lee, state-of-the-art research equipment, a salary of 260,000 yuan (around 50 million KRW), plus separate funding for living and entrepreneurship." Research areas include 2D semiconductors and solar cells.

China's Surging Engineering Talent Amid U.S. Sanctions

China’s enthusiasm for R&D, such as building research institutes to recruit Korean scholars, is nothing new. In 2021, the U.S. Congressional Research Service (CRS) reported that "while most countries focus on controlling the leakage of applied technologies, China prioritizes attracting overseas talents in basic sciences," analyzing China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025).

In January this year, Chinese researchers made headlines by publishing a paper proposing an algorithm that could theoretically speed up NVIDIA’s old GPU chips by 800 times—meaning that even gaming GPUs could solve complex problems in aerospace and defense. What amazed the academic community even more was that the research came from the newly established "Shenzhen MSU-BIT University," a Sino-Russian joint university founded by Moscow State University and Beijing Institute of Technology in 2017 in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province. Professors from Moscow State University teach courses, and students learn Russian as well. Generous scholarships funded by Shenzhen city and salaries two to three times the national average attract faculty. Professor Kim Jung-geun, an MSU-BIT faculty member and Moscow State University graduate, told JoongAng Ilbo, "China is rapidly absorbing Russia’s excellent basic science education."

Shenzhen, often called "China’s Silicon Valley," has in the past decade established campuses or research institutes of Hong Kong Chinese University (2014), Harbin Institute of Technology (2016), Sun Yat-sen University (2020), Tsinghua-UC Berkeley Shenzhen Institute (2014), and Georgia Tech Tianjin University Shenzhen Institute (2020). Graduates are absorbed by companies like Huawei.

On April 15, the Trump administration banned exports of NVIDIA’s low-end H20 GPUs to China, but it was NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang who scrambled to react. Chinese semiconductor companies like Huawei and Cambricon are posing growing threats. Although the U.S. is blocking exports of advanced GPUs and equipment, China’s engineering workforce is countering the sanctions through innovations in design, materials, and algorithms.

"How Much If You Bring Your Entire Lab?" — China Circulating Salary Charts to Korean Professors

China’s R&D ambitions even threaten Korea’s dominance in memory semiconductors. Last month, a Chinese state media report claiming that Samsung Electronics uses bonding patents from Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp (YMTC) caused a stir.

However, industry and academic experts in Korea said it was "not surprising." A domestic memory company researcher commented, "YMTC was the first to apply bonding technology in mass production among memory makers. Their R&D speed is frightening because they have so many Ph.D.-level engineers."

A Seoul National University engineering professor, speaking on condition of anonymity, said, "At Chinese companies, R&D is like human wave tactics—if someone falls, another takes over immediately—there’s simply no way to compete."

Recently, "offers from China" have become a hot topic among Korean engineering professors. Professors specializing in electrical engineering, materials science, design, and especially those holding semiconductor-related patents are receiving love calls from Chinese universities.

One engineering professor from Seoul told JoongAng Ilbo, "They present packages like a travel agency—'XX province university offers X amount for salary and research funds, and if you bring your entire lab, Y amount,'" and added, "Although I declined further talks due to national research project commitments, I was tempted by the lavish research environment."

Korea’s semiconductor workforce development policy merely focuses on increasing the number of undergraduates in contract departments. A KAIST professor who teaches in a semiconductor contract program said, "Trying to train semiconductor talent at the undergraduate level is nonsense." Four years of undergraduate education is barely enough to build fundamental mathematics and engineering skills, and limited faculty capacity in contract programs makes it difficult to offer quality curricula. Professor Lee Hee-deok of Chungnam National University emphasized, "We need to expand semiconductor research personnel at the master’s degree level to truly support the industry."

https://www.joongang.co.kr/article/25330934
 

DFR6868

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trapped to debase fiat




$3B per day in interest. $1.1 TRILLION per year. They are TRAPPED.




U.S. Treasury U.S. Treasury will now need to borrow $514 Billion this quarter, an increase of 320% from its previous estimate
 

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Samsung is phasing out DDR4 production. SK Hynix is cutting DDR4 output to a shadow. Soon, there will be no DDR4 or DDR5 suppliers outside of China. This is not a prediction. It is already happening, and the consequences for the U.S. are catastrophic.

...
 

final1

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Samsung is phasing out DDR4 production. SK Hynix is cutting DDR4 output to a shadow. Soon, there will be no DDR4 or DDR5 suppliers outside of China. This is not a prediction. It is already happening, and the consequences for the U.S. are catastrophic.

...

yawn.
yesterday i did something with my pc and dismantled some stuff and noticed my ddr5 ram is made in taiwan.

Stop spreading fake news that china is the only supplier.
 

DFR6868

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grok

Market Share (DRAM Market, Q2 2024)
  • Samsung Electronics: 42.9%
  • SK Hynix: 34.5%
  • Micron Technology: 19.6%

Geographically, China is Micron’s largest market, accounting for 41% of net sales in 2014, driven by smartphone and PC manufacturing in the region. This suggests that Chinese OEMs and contract manufacturers are also key customers.
 
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