UST no longer safe haven?

[DFR6868]

Private credit fund investors are offloading stakes at significant discounts ahead of more potential pain for the US economy, Oaktree Capital Management Co-Chief Executive Officer Robert O’Leary said.

Oaktree sees more chances to buy marked-down assets in continuation vehicles and in secondary markets, where private asset holders sell stakes in relatively illiquid funds to bring returns to their own investors. That activity has been building in private equity for some time, but credit investors are now putting up bigger trades, O’Leary said this week in a telephone interview.

...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...unts-arising-in-private-credit?srnd=prognosis

 

[DFR6868]

only way to pay the debts is to debase
lets see if 1.27/28 gets breached
if not, little red dot may not in good condition

https://www.ainvest.com/news/hong-kong-46-5-billion-currency-intervention-wake-call-investors-2505/#:~:text=for my readers.-,Hong Kong's $46.5 Billion Currency Intervention,Wake-Up Call for Investors&text=The Hong Kong Monetary Authority,band against the U.S. dollar.

Hong Kong's $46.5 Billion Currency Intervention: A Wake-Up Call for Investors​

Wesley ParkFriday, May 2, 2025

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) just dropped a financial bombshell by selling HK$46.5 billion into the market—a move triggered as the Hong Kong dollar breached the strong end of its trading band against the U.S. dollar.

 

[DFR6868]

*BESSENT: IF WE TAKE CREDIT RISK OUT OF GOVT DEBT, RATES CAN DROP

Now ask yourself why there’s credit risk being priced into treasuries all of a sudden Scott?

 

[DFR6868]

BREAKING: Trump’s trade war just backfired. China, Japan, Korea, and ASEAN just issued a joint statement that politely declares independence from US economic dominance. You won’t believe what they agreed on in Milan. A thread you need to read. (1/15)

3 weeks ago

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/news...-bloomberg-new-economy?embedded-checkout=true

Bessent Has a ‘Grand Encirclement’ Plan for China​

aside

• Milan hosted the Asian Development Bank meeting on May 4, 2025, where these nations issued a joint statement against trade protectionism, likely choosing Italy as a neutral ground amid U.S.-China trade tensions, as reported by Nikkei Asia.
• Italy has been deepening ties with ASEAN since 2017, hosting events like the High Level Dialogue on ASEAN-Italy Economic Relations, making Milan a strategic choice for Asian nations to signal a shift from U.S. economic dominance, according to The Diplomat.

 

[DFR6868]

tbf, trump is obviously not a stupid man, or at least, that stupid
but he is behaving very stupidly and is oblivious to it
why?
he is now in a state, what in my biz would described as, where he sees black as white and white as black...
the kind of power you are witnessing being exercised is only wielded by a few
this is how sometimes history gets made.
this also happened in sk when the daughter became president,
in that case, her people crossed the line against someone who was protected.




It's done: China and the European Parliament have agreed to simultaneously and comprehensively lift restrictions on mutual exchanges. Trump is bringing Eurasia together

This is absolutely huge, it's like Trump is doing whatever is the opposite of "divide and conquer".

 

[DFR6868]

Because of the 2-Tier nature of the Chinese RMB Yuan, onshore and offshore; and the fact that China has capital controls for its domestic RMB Yuan, the Saudis needed extra assurances that the RMB Yuan can be freely convertible to physical #Gold. The Shanghai Gold Exchange International (SGEI) was the first step (as pointed out by LukeGromen but it wasn’t enough because the physical #Gold is located at SGEI vaults located in China. The Saudis needed extraordinary assurances. The extraordinary assurances came in the form of SGEI vault that’s located in Saudi Arabia (announced recently by the Chinese government). This means the physical #Gold will be within Saudi Arabia jurisdiction. This means it is GAME ON!

 

[DFR6868]

meanwhile at canton fair...


https://www.yahoo.com/news/port-los-angeles-director-expects-175149494.html

Port of Los Angeles director expects ‘precipitous’ drop in business after Chinese tariffs​

Austin Turner
Fri, May 2, 2025

 

[DFR6868]

all vulnerabilities exposed



So, as suspected, it was another salvo of drones and a missile that unnerved the USS Trembling Puppy such that they lost another F/A-18 to Davy Jones' Locker, then fled in haste to the Gulf of Suez. I think we've seen the last of the Trembling Puppy for a good long while.

 

[DFR6868]

requires verification
and even if not the case
requires preparation for such a move



According to Jeff Gundlach, Scott Bessent discussed extending maturities and lowering coupons on Treasuries held abroad. This is tantamount to a default. The fact that a sitting U.S. Treasury Secretary is speaking publicly about default should cause foreigners to dump Treasuries.

 

[kgluong]

requires verification
and even if not the case
requires preparation for such a move



According to Jeff Gundlach, Scott Bessent discussed extending maturities and lowering coupons on Treasuries held abroad. This is tantamount to a default. The fact that a sitting U.S. Treasury Secretary is speaking publicly about default should cause foreigners to dump Treasuries.

Lololol delusional.

Tell me what happens when you sell Treasury? Does it disappear or do someone buy them?

How many US Treasury traded daily in dollars?

900 billions dollar of US Treasury traded every day. The record is 1.5 trillion traded in one day.

When a country sell off it Treasury or foreign currency, it can means one of two things or both.

1: profit.
2: they need the money.

How many of you will sell it at a lost just to make a political statement? A lost is in the tens of billions. Will you take that lost on your book for a political statement that doesn't affect the target country?

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/whats-going-on-in-the-us-treasury-market-and-why-does-it-matter/

 

[DFR6868]

Lololol delusional.

Tell me what happens when you sell Treasury? Does it disappear or do someone buy them?

How many US Treasury traded daily in dollars?

900 billions dollar of US Treasury traded every day. The record is 1.5 trillion traded in one day.

When a country sell of it Treasury or foreign currency, it can means one of two things or both.

1: profit.
2: they need the money.

How many of you will sell it at a lost just to make a political statement? A lost is in the tens of billions. Will you take that lost on your book for a political statement that doesn't affect the target country?

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/whats-going-on-in-the-us-treasury-market-and-why-does-it-matter/

it about cutting losses due to a "default".

 

[DFR6868]

Trump caved, but why is China still being tariffed 30% while the US is only 10%? Is that fair?!​

 

[kgluong]

it about cutting losses due to a "default".

Default lololol. Over 90% of US government debt is held inside the USA. Held by US banks, US pension funds, US citizens (401k), etc.

US Treasury yield like all other countries treasury bonds is controlled by the central bank and not market forces.

The simple act of raising and lowering interest rate by the central bank will move Treasury in one direction or the other.

That's how powerful central banks are. US yield are high because US interest rate is high. High interest rate is to combat high inflation in the USA.

If you actually think US Treasury yield is high, you weren't alive in the 1980-1990s. US Treasury yield was around 10% or higher.

There are people in the USA that are pushing the government to go back to a high yield government policy so people can get more for their savings.

 

[kgluong]

Trump caved, but why is China still being tariffed 30% while the US is only 10%? Is that fair?!​

This is sooo stupid.

Here let me show you Trump tariffs billboard.

See China? Original Trump tariffs.

China now tariffs the US 10% down from 67%. US tariffs China 30% down from 34%.

China gave up 57% tariffs to get 4% relief.

 

[DFR6868]

Lots of discussion of what actually agreed in the Switzerland meeting

A more fundamental question is why Bessent is leading the discussion? Trade is not Treasury Secretary focus, one can say he accompanies Greer who is USTR. But Commerce Secretary Lutnick or Senior counsel on trade and mfg Navarro did not attend

Obviously, this is not a trade discussion, but a US debt financing discussion

 

[DFR6868]

wat the f u c k is all this non sequitar s h i t?

"According to Jeff Gundlach, Scott Bessent discussed extending maturities and lowering coupons on Treasuries held abroad. This is tantamount to a default. "

Default lololol. Over 90% of US government debt is held inside the USA. Held by US banks, US pension funds, US citizens (401k), etc.

US Treasury yield like all other countries treasury bonds is controlled by the central bank and not market forces.

The simple act of raising and lowering interest rate by the central bank will move Treasury in one direction or the other.

That's how powerful central banks are. US yield are high because US interest rate is high. High interest rate is to combat high inflation in the USA.

If you actually think US Treasury yield is high, you weren't alive in the 1980-1990s. US Treasury yield was around 10% or higher.

There are people in the USA that are pushing the government to go back to a high yield government policy so people can get more for their savings.

 

[DFR6868]

small biz takes the hit and no refunds apparently while big ones have ftz and bonded warehouses...




Something else that’s just mind blowing: There were importers who paid 145% AFAICT they don’t get that money back What a mess



Supply chain executives use just-in-time inventory management systems to carefully balance forecasted demand, against the high costs of stocking goods. But the escalation of tariffs between the US and China compelled them to fill all available warehouse space, in the hope that a resolution would be reached before tripling prices at the retail level. Foreign Trade Zones were a valuable tool to this end. FTZ's are scattered throughout the United States, and serve vast areas of the country. Wholesalers can legally import and stockpile product in bonded warehouses in FTZ's, and delay paying tariffs until the goods are withdrawn for sale or use. Supply chain executives took an expensive gamble that the tariffs would come down before their shelves emptied, and even directed Chinese shipments to warehouses in Canada to further build out available stock. With the tariff rates dropping from 145%-plus, to 30%, products can come out of the FTZ facilities and into stores, with sufficient additional stock pending the arrival of new shipments from Asia.

 

[DFR6868]

Western media slams Trump: "China won the trade war!"​

 

[DFR6868]

now this is worth paying attention to in the following weeks.
houthis are still striking at israel while the us carriers and bombers leave the area

 

[DFR6868]

Trump’s tariff war is DOA. He kept de minimis, so Temu still ships free. Beijing wins. Again.

https://newsnationnow.com/business/your-money/de-minimis-china-tariffs-shein-temu-costs/…
https://t.co/t9OmWBkTag