UST no longer safe haven?

[DFR6868]

Why China just told its banks to dump US Treasury bonds​

 

[DFR6868]

 

[DFR6868]

embargo leaks being closed.
another nail to the dollar standing.



China's pressure on Japan is increasing. 20 companies (Mitsubishi, Kawasaki & IHI among them) added to export control list + another 20 companies (Subaru, Sumitomo & TDK among well known ones) added to List of Concerns. Dual use item basically banned to 1st list & go thru extra scrutiny for the 2nd list.

IHI, Mitsubishi & Kawasaki are all central to Japan's MIC, but they also cooperate w/ US MIC as part of the supply chain. Immediate effect is delays in various JMSDF programs, but it seems like various US radar/engine project that use Japanese suppliers will also be affected.

Longer term, if China continues to add more Japanese companies to its export ban list, it may force US govt to exert pressure on Japan to fold, since US MIC will likely face the squeeze in its supply chain.

 

[DFR6868]

no transhipment leaking to US.
no radars for f-35s



The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced the addition of 20 Japanese companies to its export control list for "their involvement in strengthening Japan's military capabilities." 1. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Shipbuilding 2. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Aerospace Engines, Ltd. 3. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Marine Equipment and Machinery, Ltd. 4. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Turbochargers and Engines, Ltd. 5. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Marine Systems, Ltd. 6. Kawasaki Heavy Industries Aerospace Systems 7. Kawago Gifu Engineering, Ltd. 8. Fujitsu Defense and National Security, Ltd. 9. IHI Power Systems, Ltd. 10. IHI Master Metal Co., Ltd. 11. IHI Jet Service Co., Ltd. 12. IHI Aerospace Co., Ltd. 13. IHI Aerospace Engineering Co., Ltd. 14. NEC Networks & Sensors Co., Ltd. 15. NEC Aviation Systems Co., Ltd. 16. Japan Marine United Corporation 17. JMU Defense Systems Co., Ltd. 18. Japan National Defense Academy 19. Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency The essence of the measures is simple: Chinese exporters are prohibited from supplying dual-use products to these companies. Foreign organizations and individuals are also prohibited from transferring such goods manufactured in China to them. All existing contracts must be terminated immediately. Exceptions can only be granted with special permission from Beijing. The decision was formally made under China’s Export Control and Non-Proliferation Obligations Law. In fact, this is a direct signal to Tokyo against the backdrop of Japan's accelerating militarization, its defense policy review, and its expanding military-technical cooperation with the United States. This measure affects the aircraft engine industry, aerospace systems, naval engineering, military electronics, and shipbuilding—all vital sectors of the Japanese defense industry.

 

[DFR6868]

https://fortune.com/2026/03/23/us-government-insolvent-fiscal-crisis-fix/

The Treasury just declared the U.S. insolvent. The media missed it​

By
Steve H. Hanke
and
David M. Walker
March 23, 2026, 11:14 AM ET

The U.S. government is insolvent. That’s not hyperbole — it’s the conclusion drawn directly from the Treasury Department’s own consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025, released last week to near-total media silence. The numbers: $6.06 trillion in total assets against $47.78 trillion in total liabilities as of September 30, 2025.

...

 

[DFR6868]

❝Switzerland ordered some Tomahawks years ago. Now the US said they can't deliver them. So Switzerland said then we won't pay. The US have now seized the funds we paid for the F-35s (which we probably won't get as well) instead.❞ "Trust in the USA is suffering" The development has been poorly received in parliament. "It's infuriating when we halt payments and then the money is simply diverted,"

https://srf.ch/news/schweiz/zahlungsstopp-ist-wirkungslos-usa-umgehen-schweizer-zahlungsstopp-fuer-flugabwehrsystem-patriot?srg_sm_medium=tw via
@srfnews

 

[DFR6868]

Here's the fun part: Tomahawks need samarium-cobalt magnets for their fins. China controls 85-90% of the supply because samarium is mined almost exclusively in China. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

 

[DFR6868]

Bloomberg, China’s Years-Long Retreat From US Treasuries Flags Bigger Risks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...

China Urges Banks to Curb Exposure to US Treasuries https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...

U.S. endures weakest Treasury auctions in over 3 years as anxiety around Iran war grows https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s...

Chinese Bonds Are Appealing as Reserve Assets, Gavekal Says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...

10-year government bonds yields by country, most recent https://tradingeconomics.com/bonds

Inside China Business, Now everyone is dumping US government bonds • Now everyone is dumping US government bonds

 

[DFR6868]

20260408
pax americana is now dead man walking

this thread began on 20250409, 1 year ago.
this is the intuition of a ranked daoist cultivator.

the punk vs the lao aunty and uncle.

The Slavic civilization is generally recognized as having coalesced as a distinct ethnolinguistic group around 2,000 to 3,000 years ago, with their origins traced back to the Bronze Age (roughly 1500 BC–1000 BC) in Eastern Europe. While they emerged as a major, identifiable force in European history during the 5th and 6th centuries AD, archaeological and linguistic evidence indicates their precursors, known as Proto-Slavs, occupied regions between the Vistula and Dnieper rivers much earlier.

Iranian civilization is one of the world's oldest, with significant urban settlements and organized cultures on the Iranian plateau dating back over 7,000 years, beginning around 5000 BCE or earlier. While early Neolithic settlements emerged around 7000 BCE, major organized states like Elam appeared by 3200 BCE, followed by the Median Empire (7th century BCE) and the Achaemenid Empire (550 BCE).

Chinese civilization is commonly cited as having 5,000 years of history, with its roots in the Yellow and Yangtze River basins. While traditional narratives start with the Xia Dynasty (c. 2070–1600 BCE), archaeological findings suggest a 10,000-year cultural history and a 5,000-year civilization, with some researchers arguing for evidence dating back 8,000 years

 

[DFR6868]

The world's largest banks, sovereign governments, and multilateral institutions are quietly abandoning dollar debt and borrowing in Chinese yuan instead. The numbers are too large to ignore. In March 2026, foreign issuance of Panda bonds tripled year on year to 27.8 billion yuan ($4 billion) in a single month. Total yuan denominated financing by foreign borrowers hit a record 218 billion yuan ($31.6 billion) in just the first weeks of 2026. The entire full year of 2025 saw only $167 billion raised through yuan notes and loans combined. Look at who is actually doing this. - Deutsche Bank issued the largest single panda bond by a foreign bank in history, 5.5 billion yuan, oversubscribed 1.55x on the 3-year and 1.63x on the 5-year - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank issued 3 billion yuan the same month, with 58% of allocation taken by overseas investors - Indonesia sold 9.25 billion yuan at roughly one full percentage point below what it paid on its euro denominated debt issued the same week - Morgan Stanley and Barclays both became repeat yuan bond issuers in 2026 - Hungary issued sovereign panda bonds - The Asian Development Bank raised a record 8.3 billion yuan in March 2025 The reason comes down to one number. China's 10-year government bond yield is 1.82%. The equivalent U.S. Treasury yields 4.46%. That is a spread of 260 basis points, the widest gap since August 2025. Borrowing in yuan is approximately 60% cheaper than borrowing in dollars right now. For governments and institutions that trade heavily with China, that calculation is straightforward. Now look at what is happening to the dollar at the same time. - The DXY fell 9.6% in full year 2025, the worst annual performance since 2017 - In the first half of 2025 alone it fell 10.7%, the worst first half performance in over 50 years - The U.S. dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.32%, the lowest level since 1995, down from a peak of 72% in 2001 - China's U.S. Treasury holdings fell to $682.6 billion in November 2025, down from a peak of $1.32 trillion in 2013, a 48% decline over 13 years - China has been selling U.S. Treasuries for nine consecutive months as of late 2025 Something more structural is also breaking down inside the Treasury market itself. Research from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that U.S. Treasuries' convenience yield, the premium investors historically paid just to hold the safest asset in the world, has turned negative, currently sitting at -0.25% for 10-year maturities. This premium used to save the U.S. government hundreds of billions in borrowing costs annually. State Street confirmed that since early April 2025, rising Treasury yields now signal fiscal risk, not economic strength. That is the opposite of how a safe haven behaves. During the global bond sell off in March 2026, triggered by geopolitical tensions and surging energy prices, U.S. Treasury yields spiked to 4.4055%, a nearly eight month high. UK, Australian, and New Zealand government bonds all hit multi-year yield highs. China's 10-year yield moved from 1.80% to 1.84%. Chinese bonds were almost stable while everything else sold off. Now look at what just happened today. A ceasefire between the US and Iran has been announced. The Strait of Hormuz is reopening. But Iran is charging every oil tanker that passes through $1 per barrel of cargo, with payments accepted in Bitcoin or Chinese yuan. A Very Large Crude Carrier carrying 2 million barrels pays up to $2 million per transit. Iran's National Security Committee has already passed legislation codifying this fee structure into law. The system is specifically designed to bypass the dollar based financial system and U.S. sanctions. At least two vessels had already paid in yuan before the ceasefire was even announced. The world's most critical energy chokepoint is now priced in yuan and Bitcoin, Not dollars. The trade picture makes the shift more structural than it looks. The yuan now accounts for 34.5% of China's cross-border goods trade settlements, up from just 10% in 2017. China is the dominant trading partner for more than 120 countries. When your largest trading partner settles trade in its own currency, you eventually need to hold that currency as a working reserve and you buy yuan denominated bonds to do it. The offshore dim sum bond market hit a record 870 billion yuan ($123 billion) in full year 2025, its eighth consecutive year of growth. Around 30% of global central banks are expected to increase their RMB holdings over the next decade. UBS Asset Management said the yuan's share of global central bank reserves could rise to 10% over the medium term. It currently sits at 1.93%. For decades, there was no real alternative to the dollar. That is what made it dominant. What is changing now is not that the dollar is broken. It is that the world has stopped assuming it is the only option. Once that assumption breaks, it does not come back.

 

[DFR6868]

the numbers for agriculture planting is missing here.
less fertilizers, less planting



do you understand what just happened to the US economy.. Q4 GDP growth was initially reported at 2.8%.. revised to 0.7%.. now revised again to 0.5%.. in the same quarter the previous one came in at 4.4%.. that's an economy falling off a cliff while the government kept revising the numbers down quietly hoping nobody would notice.. and this was BEFORE the Iran war.. before oil hit $99.. before the tariffs fully kicked in.. Q4 2025 is the last quarter where they can blame nobody but themselves.. the last time the US had near-zero growth, a Middle East war, and oil prices spiking at the same time was 1973.. the OPEC embargo.. Nixon.. unemployment doubled.. inflation hit 12%.. and it didn't recover for years.. they called that stagflation.. they're about to call this one a "soft landing".. the economy was already flatlining before a single bomb dropped on Iran.. now oil is at $99 and they're spending billions on a war they can't afford in an economy that was already dying.. and yesterday the stock market rallied 2.5% on a ceasefire that's already falling apart

 

[DFR6868]

PROFESSOR JIANG: "20% of all American white girls in their 20s are on OnlyFans. The idea that you have a percentage of American white girls in their 20s all on OnlyFans is incredible to think about...OnlyFans is the best indicator of a society in decline."

 

[DFR6868]

CHINA HAS DUMPED $623 BILLION IN U.S. TREASURY HOLDINGS. NOW IT HOLDS ONLY $694 BILLION - THE LOWEST SINCE 2008. MEANWHILE, CHINA'S GOLD RESERVES HAVE PUMPED FOR 17 MONTHS IN A ROW, TO $343 BILLION - A NEW HIGH.

 

[DFR6868]

pax americana has lost the saudi arabia

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2642938

Had the Israeli plan to ignite war between us and Iran succeeded, the region would have been plunged into ruin and destruction. Thousands of our sons and daughters would have been lost in a battle in which we had no stake. Israel would have succeeded in imposing its will on the region and remained the only actor in our surroundings.

 

[DFR6868]

kagan throws in the towel



Robert Kagan has been behind every US war for decades. For him to concede US lost its hegemony by defeat to Iran is a huge signal the world order has changed. He’s Victoria Newland’s husband. She was the agent of regime change, war, and evil everywhere, especially Ukraine.

 

[DFR6868]

trump will grovel in beijing



What's going on? Are neocons having a come-to-Jesus moment? After Bob Kagan writing an article on how the U.S. is facing "total defeat" in Iran (see ), you now have Max Boot - the very author of “The Case for American Empire” and one of the most vocal advocates for the Iraq war - publishing a Washington Post interview explaining that China has surpassed the U.S. in most military domains. If anything, Boot’s interview is even more devastating than Kagan's piece, because it's not editorial opinion - he’s interviewing John Culver, a former top CIA analyst (he was national intelligence officer for East Asia) and one of the world’s foremost authorities on the Chinese military which he’s been studying since 1985. This isn't a pundit opining - this is someone who spent decades inside the intelligence community staring at the actual data. So what is Culver saying? 1) In case of war with Taiwan, the U.S. will flee the theater This is undoubtedly the single most stunning revelation in the entire piece. Culver says that - as far as he is aware - the Pentagon’s plan in case of war with Taiwan is… flee! This is the exact quote: "I think some of the thinking in the Pentagon, and it may have evolved since I retired, is that when we think there’s going to be a war, we need to get our high-value naval assets out of the theater, and then we would have to fight our way back in. From where, it’s not clear. Guam is no bastion either." Why? Because, as he explains, any high-value U.S. assets would be sitting ducks in the entire area. China can strike U.S. forces deployed to Japan, Australia, or South Korea “in a way that Iran really can't” and, given that Iran has hit at least 228 targets across U.S. bases in the Middle East - forcing the U.S. to evacuate most of them - that's saying something. Also, U.S. aircraft carriers would need to operate within 1,000 miles of the fight to matter, which - given it’s well within range of Chinese missiles - they won’t. As Culver bluntly puts it: “There's really no safe spaces.” 2) China leads in most military domains - and it's not even close Culver says that “it’s hard to not be hyperbolic” about China’s military capabilities and that, at this stage, “it’s hard to point to an area other than submarines and undersea warfare and say the United States still has an advantage.” In some critical areas, such as advanced munitions - which, when it comes to war, is pretty damn relevant - his assessment is that China leads by “magnitudes.” As a reminder, an order of magnitude means 10x so, by assuming he knows that and meant what he said, “magnitudes” means at least a hundred times more, meaning U.S. capabilities would be less than 1% those of China. At the same time, Culver also says that “whichever side runs out of bullets first is going to lose.” So if China produces “magnitudes greater than our industrial base could produce” - as he puts it - then you don't need a PhD in military strategy to put two and two together… The picture, if anything, is even more damning in shipbuilding capabilities. He reminds that a single shipyard in China - Jiangnan Shipyard, on Changxing Island near Shanghai - “has more capacity than all U.S. shipyards combined.” Put all Chinese shipyards together and China’s broader naval shipbuilding capacity is 232 times larger than that of the United States (and this is from a leaked U.S. Navy briefing slide). Culver helpfully adds that China “deploys enough ships every year to replicate the entire French navy” - which, as a Frenchman, hurts a little, but at least we'll always have the cheese (I hope). 3) Despite this, a war in Taiwan is highly unlikely If your only window into China is Western media coverage, you'd naturally assume all of the above means war over Taiwan is about to break out. After all, if China is so powerful and the U.S. so outmatched, why wouldn't it just take Taiwan and be done with it? Culver’s assessment - and mine, incidentally - is the exact opposite: China’s increasing relative strength vis-a-vis the U.S. makes war less likely, not more. How so? As Culver explains Taiwan is “a crisis Xi Jinping wants to avoid, not an opportunity he wants to seize.” The stronger China gets, the less it needs to fight: why launch a war when you can simply wait for the military balance to become so lopsided that the U.S. quietly drops its security guarantee on its own? Culver himself foresees a future “when Americans might start to say, maybe Taiwan is a war we don’t want to get involved in.” That would almost automatically mean peaceful reunification, which has always been China’s primary objective. This doesn't mean China views the U.S. as harmless. Quite the contrary - Culver says Beijing sees America “as a very militarily aggressive country” that is “declining in power and becoming more violent” as a result. Which he says is one further reason why “war over Taiwan is not something that Xi Jinping is looking for.” China doesn't want to hand a pretext to a dangerously trigger-happy power - all the more when patience alone delivers what it wants. 4) The game is up Last but not least, perhaps the most revealing aspect of the interview is that Culver doesn’t seem to see a way out: this is structural and irreversible. Asked by Boot whether “the Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion defense budget, assuming it’s approved, [would] change the trend lines” (which, as a reminder, would constitute a 50% increase in defense spending), his reply is that “it would probably help to some extent, but I worry that we could be throwing good money after bad.” Not exactly brimming with optimism… Similarly, when asked why the U.S. keeps investing billions in aircraft carriers and even “Trump-class battleships,” his answer is that it's because “the military services have a nostalgia for the things that meet their expectations for how you get promoted.” In other words, wasted money. Same thing for the Pentagon's much-hyped “Hellscape” drone strategy to defend Taiwan. Culver asks the obvious question: “What drones are you talking about launching from where?” He points out that they’d “have to pre-deploy them if not on Taiwan itself then on Luzon or the Japanese southwest islands, all of which can be struck by the Chinese.” He adds that this is “the tyranny of time and distance when you look at war in the Pacific.” The picture that emerges, both from Boot’s Culver interview and Kagan’s article, is remarkably consistent: the U.S. is “checkmate” in the Middle East, would need to entirely flee the Pacific theater before a war even starts, cannot produce enough weapons, cannot keep its supposed “allies” safe, and has no strategy to reverse any of it - nor can one even be produced given the structural nature of the gap. Even a 50% increase in defense spending, Culver says, would be “throwing good money after bad.” That's not my assessment - that's theirs. Two of America's most prominent hawks, in two of its most establishment outlets, in the space of 48 hours, have essentially published the obituary of American military primacy. Yesterday I concluded my post by saying that even the arsonists now smell the smoke. Today I'll say: the arsonists are now writing the fire report.

 

[DFR6868]

critical shortages for so many critical stuff for them
the squeeze is on.

https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/what-is-the-strategic-petroleum-reserve/

America's emergency stockpile of oil needs a refill. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped to its lowest point since the early summer of 1983, when it was still in its early stages. The latest data shows it's at 331.2 million barrels of oil.

There's a chance the gas you just pumped into your car was made with oil from America's emergency stockpile. Not because our country is suddenly low on fuel. It's to slow the eye-popping ascent of prices due to the war with Iran.

 

[rider83]

critical shortages for so many critical stuff for them
the squeeze is on.

https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/what-is-the-strategic-petroleum-reserve/

America's emergency stockpile of oil needs a refill. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped to its lowest point since the early summer of 1983, when it was still in its early stages. The latest data shows it's at 331.2 million barrels of oil.

There's a chance the gas you just pumped into your car was made with oil from America's emergency stockpile. Not because our country is suddenly low on fuel. It's to slow the eye-popping ascent of prices due to the war with Iran.

it is been going lower since Biden days…

 

[DFR6868]

the will of heaven
us must accelerate ... its demise

 

[sg-united]

The US politicians in the past were stupid to create a monster China that will come back to bite its master.

Largely because of Cold War, the US always think that Soviet is the biggest enemy even till today. The US hopes to bring China to its ally to counter the Soviet. This strategy has proven fatal to the US eventually.

History has time and time again that you cannot create someone so powerful as you. That person will kill you eventually because he cannot live in your shadow. He needs to outshine you in order to make his name.

The US is screwed for sure. China is the now the super power overtaking Russia. The only thing Russia has is large number of warheads, nothing else.