2022 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[limster]

Bought a little bit of my 4 World ETFs this evening. Looks it will go on for more than one day and I'm getting ready to average down. Tomorrow will queue for Fraser's Logistics Trust at $1.25 and average down at $1.20.

 

[CaptainTeo]

Today dow jones bloodpath

 

[kickass22]

Have been slowly deploying my cash over the past one year into ISAC.....but limit my depolyment to a certain sum as I cannot predict anything. If it goes down even further, I wil increase the normal sum to 2X.

This is for long term depolyment for a minimum of 10 years or might end up to perpetuity . Depends on the forever changing plan...heh

For my short term volatility trading , I have made some quick returns using a fix sum. but my returns are small pocket change lie 1% of total sum. Not one to take big risk.

 

[dappermen]

I will stop
And never a believer of dca or dip-buying

 

[zzTiny]

This is just a valuation hammer. Even if you look at 2002, the book value ratio was hammered to 2.7 after 2 years and bounce back to 3 next year.

Considering how the book value for end of year 2021 is at 1000. Guess how much it can goes? But really nobody know how much valuation it will be hammered. Though, book value is an iffy matric anyway.

Take a fair ratio, plug in a fair earnings and earnings growth. And then buy. No need to regret about the loss.

 

[songboh9696]

today dropping like flies again.

 

[pcuser123]

Good to take note that the S&P 500 PE ratio today @ 18.95 is dangerously low. It is even lower than the one in 2019.

 

[churnmaster]

Bought a little bit of my 4 World ETFs this evening. Looks it will go on for more than one day and I'm getting ready to average down. Tomorrow will queue for Fraser's Logistics Trust at $1.25 and average down at $1.20.

Anything unique about the Fraser’s Trust ? I also hv some . . Bought it few months back because it was showing better relative strength compared to many others like AREIT and also PE and Div Yield quite attractive.

 

[aurvandil]

For all you macro experts out there, please help me understand this. US inflation is at 40 year highs. US stock market is in bear market territory. In spite of this, US dollar is at record highs compared to other low inflation countries like China. Why is this so? Shouldn't yuan be soaring to record highs given that China inflation is only 2%?

 

[noobkia]

For all you macro experts out there, please help me understand this. US inflation is at 40 year highs. US stock market is in bear market territory. In spite of this, US dollar is at record highs compared to other low inflation countries like China. Why is this so? Shouldn't yuan be soaring to record highs given that China inflation is only 2%?

EZ...flight to safety...the one true coin, USD. not bitcoin not gold. look at 2020, everything toh, bonds commods equity but USD the only thing which goes up and that was despite interest being 0. rmb is a controlled currency, it is not freely tradable, not free market, the govt can stop outflow easily. hence its not well-liked even as a reserve currency. USD is king - backed by the biggest military and the biggest economy with the ability to export inflation to the rest of the world through QE. in this current situation, after USD will be crude ba...maybe 3rd will be gold/food commod.

 

[limster]

Anything unique about the Fraser’s Trust ? I also hv some . . Bought it few months back because it was showing better relative strength compared to many others like AREIT and also PE and Div Yield quite attractive.

i think the management is quite good. the asset mix is diversified and valuations seem better than the Govt-linked Ascendas and Mapletrees. But I think share price won't appreciate much, just buying for dividend

 

[RedsYWNA]

For all you macro experts out there, please help me understand this. US inflation is at 40 year highs. US stock market is in bear market territory. In spite of this, US dollar is at record highs compared to other low inflation countries like China. Why is this so? Shouldn't yuan be soaring to record highs given that China inflation is only 2%?

To add to other reasons stated by noobkia above, for those funds on leverage with their Prime brokerages, it makes sense to short JPY and long USD.

JPY interest rates so low, compared to USD. It's not surprising that USD is rising.

 

[churnmaster]

For all you macro experts out there, please help me understand this. US inflation is at 40 year highs. US stock market is in bear market territory. In spite of this, US dollar is at record highs compared to other low inflation countries like China. Why is this so? Shouldn't yuan be soaring to record highs given that China inflation is only 2%?

Not an expert but can try to answer your questions . . Yuan is a controlled currency and for decades the authorities have prevented its appreciation to keep exports competitive. Otherwise based on trade and current account it should have been much higher, despite concerns about the debt fueled economy which has been slowing.

Regarding the USD, it’s the ultimate safe haven during crisis. US being the largest economy and the largest consumer of good and services meant that most stuff internationally traded is USD denominated. That has created a constant / perpetual demand for USD even for bilateral trades between far away nations. So for eg. an oil importing nation is S Asia / S E Asia importing from the M East, have to pay in USD for their oil imports. In order to earn those USD, their goods and exports are also traded in USD terms. If they are not able to earn enough USD, then they have to borrow that’s again in USD (sovereign debt) creating an ongoing short exposure. Majority of external commercial borrowings by corporates around the world are also in USD. In times of crisis, most of which stems from high energy prices, there’s a short squeeze which leads to USD rally against such currencies.

For many large nations, energy import bills are significant and if they can import energy either with their own currency or some kind of bilateral / barter arrangement, then the need for USD goes down substantially for them and it also gets reflected in their currency’s strength during such times of energy crisis.

 

[Shion]

As the world reopens, is it time for Singapore's travel stocks to shine?​

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/bus...tion-hospitality-stocks-shares-travel-2734326

 

[pcuser123]

For all you macro experts out there, please help me understand this. US inflation is at 40 year highs. US stock market is in bear market territory. In spite of this, US dollar is at record highs compared to other low inflation countries like China. Why is this so? Shouldn't yuan be soaring to record highs given that China inflation is only 2%?

Think it is the supply and demand of the dollars and also the rate hikes.

Fed stopped QE earlier and started QT in June. Stopping QEs cuts off the dollar supply and executing QTs pulls more dollars out of circulation. The market expected a liquidity squeeze and that will increase the dollar value. Then the market expected the rate hike will also increase the dollar value. if Fed is not careful, the repo rate will jump out of control as it did in 2018/19.

 

[boroangel]

This SSI Forum has been increasingly slow and quiet over the last few weeks. Not sure if others have noticed this. Previous active posters pumping up tech have gone quite quiet or disappeared.

There are still some looking to buy the dip so there is some money left on the sidelines.

It's a sign of the times, and I guess once no one talks about buying anymore, is a good time to start dipping in.

Reminiscent of the early stages of the slow grind from 2000-2002. Dip buyers keep buying in, market rebounded , and then kept going down from there. The selling stops after all the dip buyers are exhausted by 2003. After all, back then who expected the bear market could last 2 years and many investors totally stayed away from the market for years .

 

[noobkia]

Think it is the supply and demand of the dollars and also the rate hikes.

Fed stopped QE earlier and started QT in June. Stopping QEs cuts off the dollar supply and executing QTs pulls more dollars out of circulation. The market expected a liquidity squeeze and that will increase the dollar value. Then the market expected the rate hike will also increase the dollar value. if Fed is not careful, the repo rate will jump out of control as it did in 2018/19.

would u like to use your reasoning to explain the strength of the dollar in 2020 then when interest rate went to 0? interest rate or not, supply or not, USD is the top most safe haven during crisis, even better than gold. investors only want to hold usd when they are scared, not even treasuries.

 

[kickass22]

This SSI Forum has been increasingly slow and quiet over the last few weeks. Not sure if others have noticed this. Previous active posters pumping up tech have gone quite quiet or disappeared.

There are still some looking to buy the dip so there is some money left on the sidelines.

It's a sign of the times, and I guess once no one talks about buying anymore, is a good time to start dipping in.

Reminiscent of the early stages of the slow grind from 2000-2002. Dip buyers keep buying in, market rebounded , and then kept going down from there. The selling stops after all the dip buyers are exhausted by 2003. After all, back then who expected the bear market could last 2 years and many investors totally stayed away from the market for years .

Pardon me for my ignorance, I don't understand why its wrong to buy dips ? you are getting them at a good price. Does it really matter if you are investing for the long term of minimum of 10 years and above.

You buy the dip at % percentage based on the total sum you have for investing. After that, you just continue with your normal DCA schedule.

Appreciate your reply. Thanks.

 

[churnmaster]

This SSI Forum has been increasingly slow and quiet over the last few weeks. Not sure if others have noticed this. Previous active posters pumping up tech have gone quite quiet or disappeared.

There are still some looking to buy the dip so there is some money left on the sidelines.

It's a sign of the times, and I guess once no one talks about buying anymore, is a good time to start dipping in.

Reminiscent of the early stages of the slow grind from 2000-2002. Dip buyers keep buying in, market rebounded , and then kept going down from there. The selling stops after all the dip buyers are exhausted by 2003. After all, back then who expected the bear market could last 2 years and many investors totally stayed away from the market for years .

You are right. Diamond hands are now too heavy to lift.

But to be fair, the market has been providing dip buying opportunity however many fail to sell the same in the subsequent rally.

For eg. say the original buy price was 100 and following a 15% drop they decided to buy the same quantity at 85, which brings the average price to 92.5. In the subsequent 6-8% rally to say 90-91, they should be selling 75-100% of their second buy quantity. However, many won’t sell any even if the price is below 200 dma and trending lower. They keep looking at their average buy price and with each subsequent lower buy price, their average keeps trending lower while the absolute unrealized loss keeps increasing to the extent that they become numb.

Now, even if we get a very shallow bear market with just 10-12% drop from the current level over a 18-24 months period, that will be too difficult for many investors especially considering the fact that ‘Cash is no more trash’.

Add to that, the energy crisis driven currency angle will make it even more challenging for SG investors in non US markets.

 

[NeedHeIp]

anyone else has other good forums / communities besides hwz to discuss about stocks?