USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[stanlawj]

Why is this so unusual? They were also revised higher by a few hundred K back in 2022, so was the US govt also "fabricating" the numbers back then? To make the economy look worse during Biden's term? What conspiracy theories do you have to explain this?

US labour force is 153 million, a few hundred thousand is literally a drop in the bucket, it will take much more than this to move the unemployment rate significantly higher than where it is right now. Bear in mind that 4.3% unemployment rate is still extremely low compared to historical norms, the median is well over 5%.

The video is just a small town in US, it doesnt tell us anything about the US labour market. Like other countries, many places in the US have been in decline for years, even before covid.

The post that you cherry picked is just funny, why dun you dig out the countless other posts when I literally called the 10 yr yield peak because I thought rates were too high? For many months I have been saying the fed needs to cut before they do damage to the economy.

Yes I thought the labour market was strong back in Apr and I still think its strong now, just not as good as I thought. Dun forget that these are just revisions, they still added 174k jobs per month on average from Apr 2023 to Mar 2024. This is around long term trend growth for the US labour market, 178k jobs were also added per month back in 2019, pre covid.

The difference between you and me is that I dun flip flop every 5 seconds, look at your post history ffs, its literally a joke. One day you talk about how inflation is going to keep going up, a few weeks later inflation is no longer a problem, but perhaps understandably so since you trade so often, you need to come up with new narratives/conspiracy theories to support your new positions.

You claim the stock market is up due to passive investing as the result of booming jobs, but the BLS latest massive downwards revision clearly proves the stock market is manipulated upwards throughout 2024 by other means, not passive investing alone.

You said Fed needs to cut before they do damage to the economy which means you think there is no damage yet. When the damage is reported, then you said, oh...I have been saying this in the past. That's not how I frame my statements.

So, when I say conspiracy theory, it is a statement about what is happening behind the scenes, but not yet recognised widely or even acknowledged by market. Hence you have difficulty in this view. You're skating to where the moving puck is now, but I'm skating to where the moving puck is heading to in the next few months, which is:

Market will be deliberately crashed during Trumps' presidency.

 

[d5dude]

You claim the stock market is up due to passive investing as the result of booming jobs, but the BLS latest massive downwards revision clearly proves the stock market is manipulated upwards throughout 2024 by other means, not passive investing.

I was talking about long term, I'm not a daytrader like you. 170k jobs every month = more people that will receive pay checks and invest in the stock market via 401k over the long run, sure there will be recessions and job cuts every now and then but the long term trend is UP.

Also you still have not answered my question. why did the BLS understate jobs in 2022 if the whole aim of the biden admin is to lie so that the stock market can move up? Does Biden, who is always bashing wall st and talking about taxing the crap out of investors, even care about the stock market in the first place? Your conspiracy theory makes absolutely zero sense.

You said Fed needs to cut before they do damage to the economy which means you think there is no damage yet. When the damage is reported, then you said, oh...I have been saying this in the past. That's not how I frame my statements.

Damage = jobs lost = economic contraction. The US economy is still adding 174k jobs per month, as noted above this is around trend growth for the US. The main pt is that I have been saying rates are too high while people like you say rates will keep going up and stuff like reits will crash further (read your own post history).

So, when I say conspiracy theory, it is a statement about what is happening behind the scenes, but not yet recognised widely or even acknowledged by market. Hence you have difficulty in this view. You're skating to where the moving puck is now, but I'm skating to where the moving puck is heading to in the next few months, which is:

Market will be deliberately crashed during Trumps' presidency

Conspiracy theory = nonsense that people come up with to support an established position/belief, IOW its nothing more than confirmation bias. Perhaps 1/100 conspiracy theories will turn out to be true, but thats just luck.

 

[stanlawj]

I was talking about long term, I'm not a daytrader like you. 170k jobs every month = more people that will receive pay checks and invest in the stock market via 401k over the long run, sure there will be recessions and job cuts every now and then but the long term trend is UP.

Also you still have not answered my question. why did the BLS understate jobs in 2022 if the whole aim of the biden admin is to lie so that the stock market can move up? Does Biden, who is always bashing wall st and talking about taxing the crap out of investors, even care about the stock market in the first place? Your conspiracy theory makes absolutely zero sense.




Damage = jobs lost = economic contraction. The US economy is still 174k jobs per month, as noted above this is around trend growth for the US. The main pt is that I have been saying rates are too high while people like you say rates will keep going up and stuff like reits will crash further (read your own post history).




Conspiracy theory = nonsense that people come out with to support an established position/belief, IOW its nothing more than confirmation bias. Perhaps 1/100 conspiracy theories will turn out to be true, but thats just luck.

OK you are right in being able to assess rates are too high and have to come down, because I did not have any particular peak in rate in mind that would warrant me to view that it must come down.

We have different personal circumstances, where you have a nice paying job but I don't have and I must pull cash out of the market regularly, so the views on the market will be different. I'm not going to be as long-term as you do.

As for REITS, when new policy came into action that changed the UST market significantly (more T-bills, less Tbonds), then I became bullish, but projected to only limited in time frame (up to H2 2024). Then you want to refer to this point where I said, the change in SREITS is confirmed by this method I stated on 5th Nov 2023 (1st order effect = financing cost increase):

So far, the 1st order effects are still true for the REITS price and the positive correlation has not manifested.

But when the share price doesn't fall much more given that the 1st order effects are supposed to be true, is the point in time we buy REITS because it means the bad future has been fully discounted. I'm watching for this (i.e. the negative correlation to break and turn positive).

Currently this is not true yet. And the UST yield curve hasn't un-invert yet (i.e. normalise or fully steepen)

13 July 2024: (SREITS bottomed on 10 July did not make a lower low at this time)

BoJ has pivoted! Hike rates from 0.1% to 0.25%!!!
BoJ pivot means FOMC pivot (rate cut) coming soon!!

SREITS bear market has ended!

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/31/boj...roadmap-for-trimming-bond-buying-program.html

Bank of Japan raises benchmark interest rate, outlines roadmap for trimming bond buying program​

31 July 2024:

That's what was being priced in the past year of bear market.

5 Aug 2024:

Good time to buy the dip in SREITS!

I shall not dwell on conspiracy theory and try to explain official stats for 2022 as we are both consistent in the ending conclusion that Fed has done some damage and too slow to cut rates, so I'll just let the differences stand with regard to how the ending conclusion arrived.

For 2025, it is my view that the US Treasury bond market failure (yield spike) is something that is postponed temporarily, providing relief to REITS to rally for the time being. BoJ is about to pivot to rate hiking in 2025. If they do pivot substantially, there may be large selling in UST to buy JPY bonds (by Japanese banks or Japanese citizens).

 

[aurvandil]

This is from a post I wrote yesterday in the S&P thread. This was before the BLS revision came out.

https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/threads/official-s-p-500-market-watch.7025556/page-9

The recent sharp decline, followed by an equally sharp recovery, has caught many on the wrong side of the trade. It has particularly frustrated those who were bearish and positioned for a deep, prolonged market crash. Among this group, the latest talking point is the upcoming revision of jobs data by the BLS, with expectations ranging from 360k (JPMorgan Chase) to 1 million (Goldman Sachs). The bears are highlighting the Goldman number and predicting another crash. Currently this narrative is only being taken seriously by retail investors, particularly "furus" active on YouTube and X. There is no sign that institutions are paying attention to the release. The VIX is at a moderate 15.88, and trading volume has been normal since Monday. The consistent, extended one-time framing up by the market is a bullish sign, suggesting quiet accumulation ahead of Powell's policy announcement. The expectation is that the market will break above 5721.25 following Powell's speech and heading into Nvidia's earnings on August 28.

This was a follow up post I put up earlier today in the same thread following the release.

As for the BLS revision to employment numbers, these came in at -818k. As expected, it was a non-event. The numbers cover the period from April 2023 to March 2024, and as far as the market is concerned, this is ancient history with no bearing on current price action. It’s only the “furus” on YouTube and X who talked about it prior as if it were a major market-moving event. If you’ve been following someone who has been saying how the revision would cause a market crash, you might want to seriously consider hitting "Unlike" and "Unsubscribe"—they clearly have no idea what they are talking about.

 

[stanlawj]

This is from a post I wrote yesterday in the S&P thread. This was before the BLS revision came out.

https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/threads/official-s-p-500-market-watch.7025556/page-9



This was a follow up post I put up earlier today in the same thread following the release.

This is consistent with my view. Since the market (from Oct 2022 onwards) is levitated primarily via options and institutional players are the ones who can pull of this feat with huge options positions allowed for them (retail can't), so it isn't the passive investing alone by job holders that determine the direction of the market.

In fact, these revisions downwards of employment are catalysts for market to run-up even more. The Fed rate cuts have been front run to the extent that more than 100bps cuts have been priced in over the course of next 12 months. (UST 1yr yield = 4.42% now, down from peak 5.5%).

Since the BLS revision (leaked the previous week, confirmed on Wed), XBI has run up strongly. XBI ETF consists of many companies very sensitive to interest rates as many of them need to raise capital to fund drug discovery and trials.

 

[haddington21]

Don't say Jon Snow bo jio.

 

[haddington21]

Or that Jon Snow didn't warn you.

 

[d9_lives]

Don't say Jon Snow bo jio.

You appearance really put me in a dilemma.
I am in the midst of taking profit to invest in a big way with a nigerian prince whom suddenly emailed me last week.

Knowing all the doomsayers/doom prophets who usually come out of woodwork everytime there's a minor correction to spread fear, doom and gloom (they don't usually put money where their mouths are) only to delete their posts/accounts and go quiet later,
your appearance is a BIG sign to buy.

Recent case, @final1 said some BS about crash, recession, depression etc I bought more and my port. stonk close to 30% from that point.

Now, you with your winter is coming BS....
I dunno man, sounds bullish.

 

[haddington21]

You appearance really put me in a dilemma.
I am in the midst of taking profit to invest in a big way with a nigerian prince whom suddenly emailed me last week.

Knowing all the doomsayers/doom prophets who usually come out of woodwork everytime there's a minor correction to spread fear, doom and gloom (they don't usually put money where their mouths are) only to delete their posts/accounts and go quiet later,
your appearance is a BIG sign to buy.

Recent case, @final1 said some BS about crash, recession, depression etc I bought more and my port. stonk close to 30% from that point.

Now, you with your winter is coming BS....
I dunno man, sounds bullish.

Wonderful, go for it.

 

[stanlawj]

You appearance really put me in a dilemma.
I am in the midst of taking profit to invest in a big way with a nigerian prince whom suddenly emailed me last week.

Knowing all the doomsayers/doom prophets who usually come out of woodwork everytime there's a minor correction to spread fear, doom and gloom (they don't usually put money where their mouths are) only to delete their posts/accounts and go quiet later,
your appearance is a BIG sign to buy.

Recent case, @final1 said some BS about crash, recession, depression etc I bought more and my port. stonk close to 30% from that point.

Now, you with your winter is coming BS....
I dunno man, sounds bullish.

I'm long the market in lagging sectors (which I now realise is lagging) with this viewpoint below:



It's not a long-term view, but a very short-term one.
Hope to cash out decent money because I've suffered alot from choosing too many lagging stocks instead of focusing on just the top Mag 7 stocks.

 

[DevilPlate]

I'm long the market in lagging sectors (which I now realise is lagging) with this viewpoint below:



It's not a long-term view, but a very short-term one.
Hope to cash out decent money because I've suffered alot from choosing too many lagging stocks instead of focusing on just the top Mag 7 stocks.

So morale of the story…..save the effort and js whack CSPX/SPY can liao.

When Mag 7 chiong, index goes up….and now when the other 493 stocks starts to chiong, index will also go up

 

[sohguanh]

I'm long the market in lagging sectors (which I now realise is lagging) with this viewpoint below:



It's not a long-term view, but a very short-term one.
Hope to cash out decent money because I've suffered alot from choosing too many lagging stocks instead of focusing on just the top Mag 7 stocks.

I say a few times just whack the trillion dollar market cap stocks can liao. Buffet stock not yet trillion yet.

 

[d5dude]

OK you are right in being able to assess rates are too high and have to come down, because I did not have any particular peak in rate in mind that would warrant me to view that it must come down.

We have different personal circumstances, where you have a nice paying job but I don't have and I must pull cash out of the market regularly, so the views on the market will be different. I'm not going to be as long-term as you do.

As for REITS, when new policy came into action that changed the UST market significantly (more T-bills, less Tbonds), then I became bullish, but projected to only limited in time frame (up to H2 2024). Then you want to refer to this point where I said, the change in SREITS is confirmed by this method I stated on 5th Nov 2023 (1st order effect = financing cost increase):


13 July 2024: (SREITS bottomed on 10 July did not make a lower low at this time)


31 July 2024:


5 Aug 2024:


I shall not dwell on conspiracy theory and try to explain official stats for 2022 as we are both consistent in the ending conclusion that Fed has done some damage and too slow to cut rates, so I'll just let the differences stand with regard to how the ending conclusion arrived.

For 2025, it is my view that the US Treasury bond market failure (yield spike) is something that is postponed temporarily, providing relief to REITS to rally for the time being. BoJ is about to pivot to rate hiking in 2025. If they do pivot substantially, there may be large selling in UST to buy JPY bonds (by Japanese banks or Japanese citizens).

Good quality reits already bottomed last year, in fact there were 2 opportunities to get in (Oct 2022/2023), both times coincided with the panic selling in long bonds, the drop was slightly more severe in 2022 because credit spreads widened at the same time as treasury yields spiked. I should know this because I bought a mapletree treasury bond at >5% YTM back in 2022, the price never really retraced much in 2023.

July 2024 is already late, though there should still be value if interest rates drop by over 300bps, and there are always opportunities with turnaround stories since reits are essentially stocks. Many of the reits with high HK/China exposure have been crushed, even though their bonds have rallied quite a bit.

Neither BOJ or Japan is going to have any long term impact on the TSY bond market because they only hold 1.1T of the 27T outstanding TSYs (the other 8T is intra gov debt). 1.1T is only 4%, they could sell it all and it still wouldnt make much of a difference in the end. Maybe the debt will matter when debt to gdp hits 200%, but then again Japan's debt to gdp is over 260% and 10yr JGBs are still under 1% so who really knows whats going to happen?

And yes we do operate on different time frames and have different objectives. Theres no need for me to guess if the market is going to crash tomorrow, my portfolio is well prepared for most situations, including a 50% stock market crash.

 

[d5dude]

I say a few times just whack the trillion dollar market cap stocks can liao. Buffet stock not yet trillion yet.

Mag7 will underperform the market at some point, they are very good companies but nothing goes up in a straight line.

 

[sohguanh]

Mag7 will underperform the market at some point, they are very good companies but nothing goes up in a straight line.

I diversify my investment so ok unlike some readers heavily invested in USD stocks etfs.

 

[d5dude]

The picture is not as clear you imply.
There is no way to determine a bottom has been reached until the next bottom is higher than the previous one (= higher low). Lots of ppl got their money stuck in REITS at a loss from 2022 till now trying to time bottoms.

What are the good quality REITS in your opinion back in Oct 2022/23? I have not read anywhere you state any good quality REITS before, whereas for myself, I do mention FCT (J69U) as my only pick in the SREITS discussion forum, and this REIT did make its ultimate low in Oct 2022, thus if you say FCT is good REIT then I would agree with you. Can share about any others?

I think CICT is pretty good.

 

[stanlawj]

I think CICT is pretty good.

Oh... i shifted the discussion to General S-REITS discussion forum thread, can shift your reply there for REITS part?

 

[d9_lives]

.

I'm long the market in lagging sectors (which I now realise is lagging) with this viewpoint below:



It's not a long-term view, but a very short-term one.
Hope to cash out decent money because I've suffered alot from choosing too many lagging stocks instead of focusing on just the top Mag 7 stocks.

What are your lagging stocks?

 

[stanlawj]

.
What are your lagging stocks?

Oh no... this is very embarrassing, gold miners. I won't reveal exact names until I get my pound of flesh out of this excruciating sector. It's certainly not NEM, not AEM and not even WPM.

 

[d9_lives]

Wonderful, go for it.

You see la.
With your appearance, everything stonk again. I really don't know what to buy now.

Can you uh......make another post on winter is coming or any gloomy shi.t and why everyone should load up puts next week?

I am not greedy, just a little boost before taking profit. Do me a solid bro.