China & hk stocks/ etfs

[stanlawj]

Short term is down due to foreign funds waiting for better price and algos playing the correlation with UST long bond yields up and USD ripping up.

 

[d9_lives]

I will think about it if HSI come back down to 17k.

I am curious.....how's your performance so far?
Does your experience fit the following statement?

Peter Lynch: Far More Money Has Been Lost By Investors Trying To Time Corrections Than In All Corrections Combined

 

[mooseolly]

Yes, of course. The Anti-China and Taiwan invasion propaganda fed to the Westerners is still strong.

Short term is down due to foreign funds waiting for better price and algos playing the correlation with UST long bond yields up and USD ripping up.

Dropped not because of Western propaganda?

 

[aurvandil]

I am curious.....how's your performance so far?
Does your experience fit the following statement?

Peter Lynch: Far More Money Has Been Lost By Investors Trying To Time Corrections Than In All Corrections Combined

I only trade the S&P 500. I don't dabble in anything else. My performance in what I trade is consistent.

 

[d5dude]

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/688...tQXRDdXJyZW50TW91c2VQb3NpdGlvbiI6ZmFsc2V9fQ--


Despite being the same entity, SMIC is worth over 3X as much in China over its HK listed share. This looks crazy to me, have mainland investors/speculators lost their damn minds?

 

[stanlawj]

Dropped not because of Western propaganda?

Western propaganda is what is keeping most of them away for the long term investment.

Reality eventually will hit them hard. Like Ford CEO got flustered about Xiaomi SU7. Apple did not even get a chance to make and showcase their iCar.

 

[sky1978]

Despite being the same entity, SMIC is worth over 3X as much in China over its HK listed share. This looks crazy to me, have mainland investors/speculators lost their damn minds?

There are plenty of such shares around. SMIC H Share trades at a 70% discount to A Share, and there are 20+ shares that are also trading at more than 60% discount. If you lower the discount to 50%, you can find another 30 more.

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/market/ah.aspx?sort=5&order=1&filter=3

 

[d5dude]

There are plenty of such shares around. SMIC H Share trades at a 70% discount to A Share, and there are 20+ shares that are also trading at more than 60% discount. If you lower the discount to 50%, you can find another 30 more.

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/market/ah.aspx?sort=5&order=1&filter=3

Yea I'm aware that many H shares trade at a discount to A shares (primarily due to capital account inconvertibility), but the average premium has always been ~40%, 300+% is just insane, this is definitely not normal.

 

[stanlawj]

I only trade the S&P 500. I don't dabble in anything else. My performance in what I trade is consistent.

That's true. It doesn't really matter what you trade, as long as you know how to make money out of it.

 

[stanlawj]

Yea I'm aware that many H shares trade at a discount to A shares (primarily due to capital account inconvertibility), but the average premium has always been ~40%, 300+% is just insane, this is definitely not normal.

Alot of things are not normal nowadays. For example:

Isn't this also China's fault?

 

[mooseolly]

Western propaganda is what is keeping most of them away for the long term investment. But real estate will not be going to lead the bull.

Reality eventually will hit them hard. Like Ford CEO got flustered about Xiaomi SU7. Apple did not even get a chance to make and showcase their iCar.

I wonder why there are many Eastern propaganda but didn't keep investors away from US stock market for the long term investment.

 

[d5dude]

Alot of things are not normal nowadays. For example:

Don't tell me it's not related to China?

These correlations never stick for very long, go further back (before 2000) and you will find that real yields have little to do with gold prices.

 

[d5dude]

I wonder why there are many Eastern propaganda but didn't keep investors away from US stock market for the long term investment.

Because the US stock market has generated long term value for investors. This video (requires decent Chinese language proficiency) has some numbers on why the Chinese stock market has done so poorly for long term investors over the years, there are just too many structural issues:

 

[Tiny Shrimp]

Alot of things are not normal nowadays. For example:

Isn't this also China's fault?

wah how come liddis?

 

[stanlawj]

These correlations never stick for very long, go further back (before 2000) and you will find that real yields have little to do with gold prices.

Cherry-picking dates to justify your argument is not a reasonable ground for defence.

Each period in history has their own justifications. I've chosen one which is appropriate, which is the most relevant time.

Because the US stock market has generated long term value for investors. This video (requires decent Chinese language proficiency) has some numbers on why the Chinese stock market has done so poorly for long term investors over the years, there are just too many structural issues:

You conveniently left out the part 1970-1980, 2000-2009.

Reference:
https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data
https://www.macrotrends.net/1437/sp500-to-gold-ratio-chart

wah how come liddis?

Central banks are replacing their US Treasury bond holdings with gold.

 

[Tiny Shrimp]

Cherry-picking dates to justify your argument is not a reasonable ground for defence.


You conveniently left out the part 1970-1980, 2000-2009.

Reference:
https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data
https://www.macrotrends.net/1437/sp500-to-gold-ratio-chart


Central banks are replacing their US Treasury bond holdings with gold.

wah liddis really dedollarization leh...............

 

[stanlawj]

Because the US stock market has generated long term value for investors. This video (requires decent Chinese language proficiency) has some numbers on why the Chinese stock market has done so poorly for long term investors over the years, there are just too many structural issues:

Putting this here as a separate point.

Long-term investment = buy and sell time frame separated by anything longer than 1 year
Long-term investment =/= LIFE-TIME investment (buy but never sell or rebalance).

Buffett himself bought BYD shares for long-term investment (2008 - 2021). BYD was never his LIFE-TIME investment.

If you want to focus on making money, then all that matters is liquidity (amount of money) and flows (direction of money). Even scam stocks can also make money, doesn't matter whether it is listed in US, China or Singapore.

wah liddis really dedollarization leh...............

No, it's not dedollarisation in forex exchange transactions that affects us (as is implied by "dedollarization")

It's de-dollarisation of central bank RESERVES, which only affects the governments. However, the subsequent monetary policies set by the govt to support this will indirectly influence the USD exchange values.

 

[d5dude]

Cherry-picking dates to justify your argument is not a reasonable ground for defence.

Each period in history has their own justifications. I've chosen one which is appropriate, which is the most relevant time.


You conveniently left out the part 1970-1980, 2000-2009.

Reference:
https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data
https://www.macrotrends.net/1437/sp500-to-gold-ratio-chart


Central banks are replacing their US Treasury bond holdings with gold.

How is a 20 yr period in which real yields and gold both fell considered “cherry picking”? It’s exactly like I said, these correlations dun stick (negative or positive) so they are pretty much random, you could overlay the price of gold with something else and get similar results. It’s nothing more than confirmation bias.

 

[d9_lives]

Brah....all i can see is walls of text.
Not a single recommendation on what stock to buy and why.

Can we cut to the chase?

 

[d5dude]

Putting this here as a separate point.

Long-term investment = buy and sell time frame separated by anything longer than 1 year
Long-term investment =/= LIFE-TIME investment (buy but never sell or rebalance).

Buffett himself bought BYD shares for long-term investment (2008 - 2021). BYD was never his LIFE-TIME investment.

If you want to focus on making money, then all that matters is liquidity (amount of money) and flows (direction of money). Even scam stocks can also make money, doesn't matter whether it is listed in US, China or Singapore.


No, it's not dedollarisation in forex exchange transactions that affects us.
It's de-dollarisation of central bank RESERVES, which only affects the governments. However, the subsequent monetary policies set by the govt to support this will indirectly influence the USD exchange values.

Yea I know you are a short term trader, obviously anything can happen within such a short time since fundamentals mean nothing. My posts mostly pertain to the long term, from the posts in this thread it’d appear that most people here are long term investors too so it ought to be relevant.