I think the current problem is the fx. It is very difficult to judge the fx. Another headache to even try to consider. And, I am not very good with fx.
As for commodities, especially oil and gas price, it has substantially been sold down. Looks good if this continue/stabelize. I do think the idea wherether recession or Russia driving oil and gas price hugely is pretty bullcrap. There is certainly some price due to Russia. But not that huge.
Previously, I predict the oil price to only go down to 2019 oil price by 2 years. But it seems the acceleration of rig counts has been slowly increasing. This seems good. The main problem is the pricing of Russia. Where will Russia oil goes? And how much can you even price the loss? If so, we should see the oil price to be 2019 oil price + certain oil price due to Russia within 2 years by late 2023 if the rig counts increases at the same pace.
