2022 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[churnmaster]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/07/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
Prices of commodities are dropping hard. Inflation number is likely going to reverse.

I think the US economy will see a soft landing and FED will start reversing interest rates towards end of the year.

My take is US stocks will see a strong rebound in the H2.

We saw extreme optimism around 4700 and extreme pessimism around 3700. Add to longs and play for mid/high teens.

 

[churnmaster]

Another joke is Boris and UK. What a greater joke than Russia for this year. UK is a Clown.

The joker is out but circus is still on. The next European winter is something to watch.

 

[d9_lives]

I only see one thing.....

Whether it goes up or down...... I buy buy buy....

I rather buy when it down....so I get to average it down further....=)

Dis is de way.

 

[limster]

new trading week, pls show me the way!
SG market closed, looking at Australia, ASX 200 P/E 16.5x , Dividend yield 4.25%, not cheap but not expensive either. Maybe worth adding a bit more to my holdings.

speaking of P/E, for bigger markets, there are websites that are able to calculate and adjust P/E almost real-time after each component company reports earnings.... Singapore doesn't seem to have any comparable website ... whats the best website for seeing STI P/E and dividend yield (even if not updated as quickly as other markets?)

 

[dappermen]

how bad can it get? : more than 80%? for billionaire
https://fortune.com/2022/05/06/stoc...SumfeQlUXmgvxzq1OYVBFMV6kqI3ZALPHM0VnANL65970

 

[churnmaster]

new trading week, pls show me the way!
SG market closed, looking at Australia, ASX 200 P/E 16.5x , Dividend yield 4.25%, not cheap but not expensive either. Maybe worth adding a bit more to my holdings.

speaking of P/E, for bigger markets, there are websites that are able to calculate and adjust P/E almost real-time after each component company reports earnings.... Singapore doesn't seem to have any comparable website ... whats the best website for seeing STI P/E and dividend yield (even if not updated as quickly as other markets?)

Fed meeting and monthly option expiry week, so I guess a down week. However, don’t think it will change the technical view of a slow rebound, unless we hit 3600.

 

[sohguanh]

Fed meeting and monthly option expiry week, so I guess a down week. However, don’t think it will change the technical view of a slow rebound, unless we hit 3600.

I have read online articles when ppl advise stay out of US markets and then re-enter next year instead. Some say wait for Fed to complete their series of rate hikes then re-enter. So many opinions how everyone hope there is a crystal ball to forsee future indeed.

 

[platee]

I have read online articles when ppl advise stay out of US markets and then re-enter next year instead. Some say wait for Fed to complete their series of rate hikes then re-enter. So many opinions how everyone hope there is a crystal ball to forsee future indeed.

Now anytime WW3 or next pandemic can be triggered. Can't go long at all.

 

[limster]

Now anytime WW3 or next pandemic can be triggered. Can't go long at all.

TLDR - if you are right about WW3 it will be nuclear and we are all dead (or life greatly shortened due to fallout or starvation due to no food), if you are wrong, you will be poor because you didn't go long. What would be the right decision in this case?

Anyway, I bought more ETFs tonight, I still think its a good time to accumulate little bit by little bit.

 

[churnmaster]

EUR / USD almost parity from a peak of 1.60 in 2008. Similarly, EUR / SGD down from 2.20 in 2008 to 1.40 now. More than 35% drop in both the cases over 14 years.

 

[ultraboost]

Do you know how recession feels like? If it is true, we are barely there yet. BUY IN AT JUNE 2023!!!

 

[theMKR]

Do you know how recession feels like? If it is true, we are barely there yet. BUY IN AT JUNE 2023!!!

wah your prediction chart so satki can project until so far off

 

[theMKR]

TLDR - if you are right about WW3 it will be nuclear and we are all dead (or life greatly shortened due to fallout or starvation due to no food), if you are wrong, you will be poor because you didn't go long. What would be the right decision in this case?

Anyway, I bought more ETFs tonight, I still think its a good time to accumulate little bit by little bit.

how about buying gold?? will that help for ww3?

 

[dappermen]

Gold? Not even climbing up…..


Even they admit it is in a “fragile” state!


https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/global-economy/global-economy-fragile-state-temasek?fs=e&s=cl

 

[kimsix]

TLDR - if you are right about WW3 it will be nuclear and we are all dead (or life greatly shortened due to fallout or starvation due to no food), if you are wrong, you will be poor because you didn't go long. What would be the right decision in this case?

Anyway, I bought more ETFs tonight, I still think its a good time to accumulate little bit by little bit.

is it because of how successful the marketing of etf and dca that bear market is calm downtrending?

means got support bases, too large to fail, every month will have buyers,

so just buy and buyed, sure huat like properties, need dry powder and holding power

 

[limster]

is it because of how successful the marketing of etf and dca that bear market is calm downtrending?

means got support bases, too large to fail, every month will have buyers,

so just buy and buyed, sure huat like properties, need dry powder and holding power

The magic word is "Liquidity" - as long as there is plenty of cash sloshing around the system, the market will move in a fairly orderly manner. Of course, this is the market and not individual stocks - some individual stocks may crash a lot harder than others. So I guess its 'safer' to buy ETFs, especially MSCI/FTSE World-based ETFs.

Maybe this market will favour the value investor - that invests in companies with good free cash flow and 'make their own liquidity.' Growth companies that are burning cash and depending on investors and banks to provide them with cash to burn through are more at risk... especially with higher interest rates.

 

[zzTiny]

You are better off stocking up on toilet papers and tin cans if you betting on ww3. Who the **** wants a gold bar in a wasteland.

There are not a single strategy that works best in all time frame and condition. An all weather strategy eats up opportunity risk and even that fails splendidly.

Pick your poison.

 

[ExEngineer]

Looking at short term trading idea ….UK FTSE (100, 250…)

With Boris Johnson quitting, there is a large field (>10) of mostly crazy people (right Wing conservatives, with very poor economic sense) running to replace him as PM.
Almost all of them a promising to cut taxes, which might be sound like good news for corporate profits, but mostly this will be terrible as none of them have any ideas how to pay for the tax cuts except for cutting essential government services.

The rules have been announced which will narrow the list down to 2 people within a week.

My hypothesis is that the UK stock market may bounce a little when the shortlisting exercise is completed and the majority of the clowns are eliminated and the 2 candidates remaining are relatively less-harmful than all the others (note I didn’t say the top 2 would be any good…just they are less cartoonish that their colleagues).

I put some money behind this today, just for fun to see if the bounce theory works out, make some coffee money while watching the politics circus. Mind you if it does bounce I won’t be holding - on a dead cat like the UK economy, probably better take the profit and run (contrary view…at current prices, the financials/energy/staples-heavy FTSE 100 is paying almost a 4% dividend so there may be upside…but it also may go to ****).

 

[limster]

I bought LLOY tonite

 

[theMKR]

boring-est day in US market today.....