2022 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[endlssorrow]

If you had a long time period and had DCA your way through these high and low inflation periods, you would have done well. From a retirement planning perspective, sequence of risk seems to be more a key risk.

These are some of the details I was able to elicit from reading research and articles across the various finance blogs mostly from U.S.

DCA monthly above for now doesn’t not work efficiently
If weekly it will be great as for now

 

[churnmaster]

If you had a long time period and had DCA your way through these high and low inflation periods, you would have done well. From a retirement planning perspective, sequence of risk seems to be more a key risk.

These are some of the details I was able to elicit from reading research and articles across the various finance blogs mostly from U.S.

Good stuff.

Based on the average % decline, the trough should be around 3200. 3200-3400 is anyways a congestion zone, with 3400 as the previous peak and thus a technical target. It is also the 50% retracement level of the 2020 - 2022 rally.

Days to the trough is anyone's guess and more a function of the FED's actions. If they restart liquidity injection thru bond buying, the retracement will get stalled. Anyways, so far they have committed to very little (about 600B) of liquidity draining till the end of the year.

Russel 2000 has already broken below its previous peak. So, we already have a precedence.

 

[TehSi99]

Anyone selling their Singapore stock if they are green now and intend to buy back later?

 

[yumsang]

since US market already corrected so much, will there still be a black swan to trigger ** 5-10 times like in mar 2020? if yes then maybe should sell my reits, else will let it be and collect div.

 

[pcuser123]

Anyone selling their Singapore stock if they are green now and intend to buy back later?

One can try but would not get as much as selling the US stocks.

 

[churnmaster]

Anyone selling their Singapore stock if they are green now and intend to buy back later?

I would be buying now and selling later after 4-5% rally, incase if we get one in Jul.

 

[churnmaster]

since US market already corrected so much, will there still be a black swan to trigger ** 5-10 times like in mar 2020? if yes then maybe should sell my reits, else will let it be and collect div.

You are right US markets have corrected a lot and should expect a bounce (pullback) from here.

You don't get limit down days very often in major indexes. There needs to be a very strong trigger for that to happen. Margin debt is one such potential trigger but for now things seems to be in control.

 

[InterestingStuff]

i dont think us can be great again,
bond yields higher than china already

 

[churnmaster]

i dont think us can be great again,
bond yields higher than china already

Great again ... that's Trump's tagline

Four years of utter non sense which not just the US but the whole world had to tolerate.

 

[churnmaster]

South Korean index, KOSPI already trading below its previous peak.

 

[zzTiny]

I disagree. I think s&p will and should end this year at 3600-3800 unless something broke. If something broke,

USD still remains as king during distressed situation. Something worth to take note in future.

 

[churnmaster]

I disagree. I think s&p will and should end this year at 3600-3800 unless something broke. If something broke,

USD still remains as king during distressed situation. Something worth to take note in future.

I agree by year end, we should be in Wave 2 (corrective wave) in the overall downward journey.

 

[limster]

bought LLOY and AV earlier today. came back and checked prices, LLOY suddenly +2.2% green, BBVA +2.9%, SAN +2% so Euro banking sector is pretty green, Aviva still red but at least recovered 1% from the price I bought it at.... market trying to stage a comeback but I'm doubtful.

 

[pcuser123]

i dont think us can be great again,
bond yields higher than china already

Beg to disagree if one is suggesting that the US economy is presently worse than the Chinese.

To give that conclusion, one would need many economic indicators. Bond yield is just one of them. Bond yield has been used before to predict a recession but does not necessarily indicate if the US will perform worse than others.

A better way to compare the economy is using the rates of CDS. This CDS rate will indicate how bond investors perceived the probability of defaults in Government bonds of various countries. If the risk of bond default is high, the CDS value will be high.

https://skyjuiceiswater.blogspot.com/2022/06/would-investors-ditch-us-bond-market.html

 

[churnmaster]

This forum is very quiet these days. Action seems to have shifted to the gov sec forums.

Btw, the last few sessions saw some major divergences in terms of sectors. Energy and materials got beaten down resulting in some of the high dividend yield stocks now almost 20-40% cheaper. Just looking at the index level it was hard to figure this out.

We are yet to see the S&P500 touch / break below 3600 on an intraday basis though.

 

[limster]

This forum is very quiet these days. Action seems to have shifted to the gov sec forums.

Btw, the last few sessions saw some major divergences in terms of sectors. Energy and materials got beaten down resulting in some of the high dividend yield stocks now almost 20-40% cheaper. Just looking at the index level it was hard to figure this out.

We are yet to see the S&P500 touch / break below 3600 on an intraday basis though.

I'm buying some ETFs tonight. valuations are getting reasonable.

S&P500 effectively back to Dec 2020 levels so basically the slightly irrational rally of 2021 has been wiped out. I also think 3600 is a key level and I'm still optimistic we'll end the year higher than that.

 

[churnmaster]

I'm buying some ETFs tonight. valuations are getting reasonable.

S&P500 effectively back to Dec 2020 levels so basically the slightly irrational rally of 2021 has been wiped out. I also think 3600 is a key level and I'm still optimistic we'll end the year higher than that.

I’ve also been adding to my length. Closed most of my shorts last week and added some underlying. However, staying away from European stocks. Yields and VIX both are down now so should see some continuation to the upside.

 

[limster]

interesting market movement. I thought that market would have 5-10% more downside followed by summer rally.

I think still can buy at this price, but I would be cautious. My target price for IWDA is $75 and currently its $73.50, so I may still accumulate world ETFs this month.

If IWDA goes above $75 that would be a signal to me to stop buying to monitor whether the rally is fake.

 

[zzTiny]

Be cautious. This is the same rally as last end of month which got squash at the mid of next month. We are still heavily dependent on data.

 

[Perisher]

https://theconversation.com/amp/how...ation-and-what-could-possibly-go-wrong-176426
Expecting interest rate to keep rising till inflation goes down but then it’s actually a perfect storm with the Russia-Ukraine situation… jialat.