Yes, I remember when HSI index used to be 24k ages ago. The fact that HSI is now 16k, I just can't imagine how it is even possible. It is like S&P500 was 2000 when HSI was 24k 10 years back and now HSI is 16k while S&P500 is 4600. I mean how can anybody logically explain losing so much money over this time period, which you can never expect to earn back in your lifetime.
To be fair, HSI did rally to around 33.5K so there was enough opportunity to liquidate and realize some profits. Even last October after dropping to around 14.5K it rallied to 22.5K, more than 55% rally in about 3 months. But I’m sure not many permabulls would have realized their gains during this bull run that’s because they are thinking in terms of 2X, 3X, 4X, etc.
Most people are investors and not traders. I wouldn't trade in and out with my entire networth. I don't know how you do it. I have an asset allocation and then I do take some bets on small amounts, which I usually get perfectly wrong. But imagine people who have long term allocation to Asia/China like 30% of their networth. They are not trading in an out and that is not supposed to be how it is done. We are supposed to accumulate into assets which generate returns. For example S&P500, trading in and out is not needed.
Its not trading in and out; its just portfolio rebalancing lah.
Who said you have to trade in and out with your entire networth ? If an index rallied 50% in a year and your investment in that index is up 30% wouldn’t you realize some of the profits if not all ?
But many herds still inclined to hold SPY and QQQ for the next few decades hoping to achieve 8-10% pa. Whahaha
It’s OK to hold however like in the case of HSI if you get more than 55% rally in about 3 months from Oct22 to Jan23 and if your investment is up 30% (which is like 3 years of your expected returns) won’t you take profit atleast partially.
No, because I would have bought the index 200% higher and then it crashed 50% so even though it rallied 100% I am still down 50%.
That’s true and so from time to time I have exposure to US, UK, Brazil, India, etc in addition to SG thru stocks or ETFs. None of them thru Global index ETFs though.
You mean to say you would be a spectator when your investment tanks by 50% from 200 to 100 and then won’t add during the subsequent rebound to 150 ?No, because I would have bought the index 200% higher and then it crashed 50% so even though it rallied 100% I am still down 50%.
You may be the perfect timer in the world, please start a hedge fund and help earn money for others, instead of preaching here
My idea of rebalancing is not adding into markets which haven’t done well in this case China but to take the money out and park into a HY account or UST etc for redeployment when the opportunity presents itself.
Ok you may call it as active portfolio management, for me it’s just securing my returns and slowly building over time.
I am telling you man, you must start a hedge fund, you are wasting your talent, unless you are already an NRI private banking RM. Then I think you are in the right job
Thanks for your advice.I am telling you man, you must start a hedge fund, you are wasting your talent, unless you are already an NRI private banking RM. Then I think you are in the right job
Its ok to buy IWDA at 88 in Jan 2022, you just had to continue DCA as the price went down, so your average price should be much lower.
I am also a risk averse investor, so I prefer to buy stocks that are undervalued, because the risk that they will go down is much less than the risk they will go up
For example, as I have said, buying STI when it is under 3,000 to me is low risk and almost like free money, sure go back to 3,000.
However, low risk doesn't mean no risk. If STI is too risky for you, then buying IWDA under $75 may be a better example. It's a low risk purchase because it will go back to $80.
