2024 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[stanlawj]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/183457/united-states-resident-population/

https://www.statista.com/chart/8083/immigrants-foreign-born-united-states/

Up and to the right.

I think you should already know, that news written by US-based reporters are anti-China and do not tell the truth.
Likewise news written by China-based reporters are pro-China and also only tell partial truths.

Maybe a little more digging will be needed.

Su Baolin came to Singapore as a legitimate businessman? True or false? How would you know?

Otherwise, your eyes will just only look at news that confirm your preconceived beliefs.
Which Chinese seeks asylum in foreign countries? Like Amos Yee, these are ppl in trouble with the law back home. Unpaid debts, molesters, scammers, violently anti-XJP like the violent HK protesters,... etc.

Here is the truth: America is now anti-Chinese. Not just anti-China.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-...rofessor-wins-appeal-sue-government-rcna86109

After being wrongfully accused of spying for China, professor wins appeal to sue the government​

“I’m very, very glad that we can finally put the government under oath to explain why they decided to do what they did, violating our constitutional rights,” Professor Xiaoxing Xi said in an exclusive interview with NBC News.

 

[d5dude]

I think you should already know, that news written by US-based reporters are anti-China and do not tell the truth.
Likewise news written by China-based reporters are pro-China and also only tell partial truths.

Maybe a little more digging will be needed.

Su Baolin came to Singapore as a legitimate businessman? True or false? How would you know?

These are statistics, not news or op-eds.

The immigration/population statistics were obtained from the relevant authorities in US and China. Of course the statistics could be fake/made-up, but I will give them the benefit of the doubt, until proven otherwise.

 

[revhappy]

By sheer size India will surely become the 3rd largest economy in the world sometime in the future.

As an NRI, I suppose you have better lobangs to invest in India than foreigners like us Sinkies?

I stick to index investing, even though I can open a local brokerage account and buy individual stocks. So there isn't much difference. The locals in India also invest in various active managed funds which invest in small and midcaps and they have delivered really phenomenal returns. But I just stick to main big index.

As an NRI, we have a bit of quitter mentality and we have access to global funds and in Singapore there is no capital gains tax, so I haven't really benefitted much from Indian markets.

 

[revhappy]

Do you mean China has no domestic capital/talent/consumption?

You must follow Michael Pettis on Twitter. He is a super expert economist on China.

He says Chinese govt incentivise manufacturing and exports by giving a lot of subsidies. So a lot of wealth goes to the manufacturing and export and construction sectors and the local governments. Internal consumption is relatively weak in China, because households don't get to keep a lot of the wealth. Most of the GDP growth in China was in infrastructure, construction and manufacturing spending. Not on the consumption side.

China realized this is not sustainable, and they tried to pivot, but that is not working well. Even now most of the stimulus is not given to households for consumption. It is still being directed to supporting the developers from collapsing.

Edit: Found some tweets, but there are lots like these:

 

[stanlawj]

These are statistics, not news or op-eds.

The immigration/population statistics were obtained from the relevant authorities in US and China. Of course the statistics could be fake/made-up, but I will give them the benefit of the doubt, until proven otherwise.

I think my reply should have been directed at @aurvandil .

But I also don't see how your stats make any meaningful contribution since you agreed with the Bloomberg news article.

 

[d5dude]

You must follow Michael Pettis on Twitter. He is a super expert economist on China.

He says Chinese govt incentivise manufacturing and exports by giving a lot of subsidies. So a lot of wealth goes to the manufacturing and export and construction sectors and the local governments. Internal consumption is relatively weak in China, because households don't get to keep a lot of the wealth. Most of the GDP growth in China was in infrastructure, construction and manufacturing spending. Not on the consumption side.

China realized this is not sustainable, and they tried to pivot, but that is not working well. Even now most of the stimulus is not given to households for consumption. It is still being directed to supporting the developers from collapsing.

China's economy is also just super opaque. I was browsing weibo a couple of days ago and I saw some people commenting on the real estate and debt crisis in China. All 3 actors (property buyers, real estate developers, local govts) are highly indebted and in desperate need of liquidity, how is it possible for everyone to be broke? Where did all the money go?

 

[d5dude]

I think my reply should have been directed at @aurvandil .

But I also don't see how your stats make any meaningful contribution since you agreed with the Bloomberg news article.

Dunno what bloomberg article you are referring to, I agreed with Aurvandil because there are statistics that back up his claim that immigration to the US is still very strong.

I'm fairly open minded when it comes to govts fudging the numbers to make them look nicer to the masses, but I'm not a conspiracy theorist, there has to be some evidence (eg. CPI methodologies were revised several times in the 80s) backing these claims.

Also who cares if the Chinese are still moving to the US? I'm a Chinese but I think its pure bigotry to think that the US cannot function without Chinese immigrants, this is a laughable assertion. FWIW, only Nvidia and AMD's founders/CEOs are Chinese, most tech CEOs are either Indian or Caucasian.

 

[stanlawj]

Dunno what bloomberg article you are referring to, I agreed with Aurvandil because there are statistics that back up his claim that immigration to the US is still very strong.

I'm fairly open minded when it comes to govts fudging the numbers to make them look nicer to the masses, but I'm not a conspiracy theorist, there has to be some evidence (eg. CPI methodologies were revised several times in the 80s) backing these claims.

Also who cares if the Chinese are still moving to the US? I'm a Chinese but I think its pure bigotry to think that the US cannot function without Chinese immigrants, this is a laughable assertion. FWIW, only Nvidia and AMD's founders/CEOs are Chinese, most tech CEOs are either Indian or Caucasian.

Looks like you may have lost the thread of debate. The point is about the duration of recovery of China's current bear market. The factor being debated is the continuing loss of talent from China to US. My point is: it has stopped and is reversing due to worsening anti-Chinese persecution in US causing an invisible glass ceiling for Chinese in US. It is not about net migration to US from many countries.

 

[aurvandil]

I think my reply should have been directed at @aurvandil .

But I also don't see how your stats make any meaningful contribution since you agreed with the Bloomberg news article.

I brought out the article as I find it hard to believe that the majority of those from China seeking to emigrate to the US are criminals.

 

[kickass22]

India has domestic capital, domestic talent, domestic consumption. India is the only country like US, in terms of capitalism and being consumption focussed. All your East Asian so called Tiger economies, including China and Japan all of them couldnt match up the structural long term growth like Indian markets have delivered.

India imports a lot from China, so all India has to do is force domestic manufacturing and replace the imports, which is already happening in case of iphones and other smart phones.

I agree with the following statement, there is a portion of population that is reaching the stage where they are able spent and support the Indian economy. However, in order for it to grow, the rest of India needs to grow too.

There is still too much corruption and in the the consumption part, only a small percentage is able to afford it. The rich are definitely getting richer and the middle class is growing but not to the level that it can become like USA. In the terms of talent, while the talent leakage isn't as large as before, it is still leaking a lot to other countries due to the lack of opportunities and corruption for those that are really talented . India has also become a stepping stone to better opportunities in other countries.

 

[aurvandil]

Looks like you may have lost the thread of debate. The point is about the duration of recovery of China's current bear market. The factor being debated is the continuing loss of talent from China to US. My point is: it has stopped and is reversing due to worsening anti-Chinese persecution in US causing an invisible glass ceiling for Chinese in US. It is not about net migration to US from many countries.

Other than the US, they are emigrating to everywhere else in the world that gives them better opportunities. A large number for example have come to Singapore.

 

[stanlawj]

I brought out the article as I find it hard to believe that the majority of those from China seeking to emigrate to the US are criminals.

Why would you want to emigrate to a destination country that is now openly anti-you?
Does it make any sense?

And Singapore is now beginning to be perceived as a front for international China operations with backdoors to China, regardless of whether it is true or not.

You have to dig for news to find what is not being reported.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/russel...ination-in-past-year--survey/?sh=5f3047926880 (Apr 2023)

Nearly three of four Chinese Americans have experienced racial discrimination In the past 12 months, according to a survey unveiled today by Columbia University’s School of Social Work and the Committee of 100, a non-profit organization of prominent Chinese Americans.

— 77% of respondents said they felt accepted in American society
(which means nearly 1/4 do not feel accepted).

— 79% viewed current U.S.-China relations as negative, and negativity grew with increasing educational attainment

— more than half of the sample were born in mainland China and over a quarter (27%) were born in the U.S.
(many Chinese migrants being surveyed).

— some 90% of Chinese American citizens are registered voters


https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2216248120 (Jun 2023)

Caught in the crossfire: Fears of Chinese–American scientists​

Our study reveals the widespread fear among scientists of Chinese descent in the United States arising from conducting routine research and academic activities. If this fear is not alleviated, there are significant risks of underutilization of scientific talent as well as losing scientific talent to China and other countries. Addressing the fear of US-based scientists of Chinese descent and making the American academic environment welcoming and attractive to all will help retain and attract scientific talent and strengthen the US global leadership in science and technology in the long run.

The China Initiative​

In 2018, formalizing standing concerns about “Chinese economic espionage”, the Department of Justice launched the China Initiative (7). In reality, the Initiative mostly targeted US-based academic scientists of Chinese descent for “research integrity” issues, the most prominent being failure to disclose relationships with Chinese institutions on federal grant applications (7, 8). The Initiative was heavily criticized for racial profiling—though views varied on the extent to which this was intentional—by both the scientific community and civil rights advocates, leading to an ending of its official name in early 2022 (9).

There are questions, however, regarding the extent to which the formal dropping of the “China Initiative” name has been accompanied by substantive changes in the government’s practices that address the chilling effects experienced by scientists of Chinese descent. So far, the China Initiative has openly investigated about 150 academic scientists and prosecuted two dozen of them with criminal charges (7, 9), with many more investigated in secret (8).

One high-profile case was against Gang Chen, a former head of the Department of Mechanical Engineering at MIT and a member of the US National Academy of Engineering. After his arrest on January 14, 2021, his lab was closed, and his research group dispersed. A year later, all charges were dropped (10). The chilling effect of the Gang Chen case was significant and consequential; it resulted in greater community awareness among Chinese–American scientists and scientists of Chinese descent regardless of their nationality and heralded nationwide discussions in the community as to how to protect oneself and address the emerging challenges.


https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02162-y (Aug 2023)

Chinese students stay local as favour falls with study abroad​

Fewer opt to move overseas for study owing to factors such as the pandemic and geopolitical tensions.

 

[aurvandil]

China's economy is also just super opaque. I was browsing weibo a couple of days ago and I saw some people commenting on the real estate and debt crisis in China. All 3 actors (property buyers, real estate developers, local govts) are highly indebted and in desperate need of liquidity, how is it possible for everyone to be broke? Where did all the money go?

As I understand it, the buyers of Chinese property have to prepay for the property to the developers.

To do this, they took out mortgages with the banks.

The banks transferred this money to the property developers.

Instead of using this money to complete the property, the developers used the money to borrow more money from the China banks to bid for land to start other projects..

The local governments took the money from the land sales and engaged in massive infrastructure/industry mal-investment in order to meet the aggressive GDP growth targets set by the central government. As the money from the land sales was not enough, the local governments borrowed aggressively from the China banks to fund these projects. The thinking at the time was that even though the mal-investment was unlikely to generate the necessary tax returns to make the projects viable, they could always rely on land sales to make up any short fall.

Everything was working fine as long as property prices went up and there were people buying new projects from the developers.

When the crash came, people stopped buying projects and the money stopped flowing.

As the developers had already deployed the money which they were supposed to use to build the original projects, they had no money to complete these projects. Many defaulted on their debts and went into restructuring. They also stopped buying land as there was no demand for new projects, leading to a liquidity crunch for the local governments who had been counting on land sales to finance their mal-investment debt.

The buyers who had took on mortgages are now stuck with half completed projects that are way past the delivery date. These have little to no value as there is little prospect of them being completed. Although the developer was not able to deliver a completed unit, they still have to pay the bank the mortgage they took out. This has led to a record number of mortgage defaults

The China banks who lent money to finance all this are of course now stuck with a mountain of toxic assets which is why ever so often, we see stories of bank runs or banks freezing accounts and not allowing withdrawals.

 

[revhappy]

Why would you want to emigrate to a destination country that is now openly anti-you?
Does it make any sense?

And Singapore is now beginning to be perceived as a front for international China operations with backdoors to China, regardless of whether it is true or not.

You have to dig for news to find what is not being reported.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/russel...ination-in-past-year--survey/?sh=5f3047926880

Nearly three of four Chinese Americans have experienced racial discrimination In the past 12 months, according to a survey unveiled today by Columbia University’s School of Social Work and the Committee of 100, a non-profit organization of prominent Chinese Americans.

— 77% of respondents said they felt accepted in American society
(which means nearly 1/4 do not feel accepted).

— 79% viewed current U.S.-China relations as negative, and negativity grew with increasing educational attainment

— more than half of the sample were born in mainland China and over a quarter (27%) were born in the U.S.
(many Chinese migrants being surveyed).

— some 90% of Chinese American citizens are registered voters

Its really shocking the pace at which the anti China sentiment took place, Trump was largely to blame as he used his entire administration duration to attack China. Remember the trade war, talks going on talks going off, tariffs.

Then the Coronavirus, Trump again directly blamed China for it.

When a strong man leader so openly attacks a race, I guess it creates a lot of hatred among his supporters. It is sad that this happened in a so called free world democratic country like US.

 

[TehSi99]

Its really shocking the pace at which the anti China sentiment took place, Trump was largely to blame as he used his entire administration duration to attack China. Remember the trade war, talks going on talks going off, tariffs.

Then the Coronavirus, Trump again directly blamed China for it.

When a strong man leader so openly attacks a race, I guess it creates a lot of hatred among his supporters. It is sad that this happened in a so called free world democratic country like US.

US is a racist country to begin with. Trump is just the catalyst or is the someone that people are waiting for to openly start bashing China so that they can openly follows. It was also easy to find a scapegoat to explain why sheat happens, and then find time to solve the problems.

Do you need to advertise you are a free country if you are already one to begin with?

 

[stanlawj]

@aurvandil @d5dude

https://safeguarddefenders.com/en/b...-immigration-expos-shows-there-was-little-end (Aug 2022)

PRC ends cooperation on illegal immigration - exposé shows there was little to end​

As reported by Reuters, “China has been extremely slow, U.S. immigration officials say, to provide the proof of citizenship necessary to send visa violators home. Some of the nearly 39,000 Chinese immigrants awaiting deportation have been under orders to leave for well over a decade, and the backlog continues to grow. 900 of them classed as violent offenders, according to immigration officials.” The explanation from one U.S. official was simple: “They do not want these people back.”[7]

 

[yslvlys]

I stick to index investing, even though I can open a local brokerage account and buy individual stocks. So there isn't much difference. The locals in India also invest in various active managed funds which invest in small and midcaps and they have delivered really phenomenal returns. But I just stick to main big index.

As an NRI, we have a bit of quitter mentality and we have access to global funds and in Singapore there is no capital gains tax, so I haven't really benefitted much from Indian markets.

What do you mean by quitter mentality? Do your other NRI friends have this mentality too or you refering mainly yourself only ?

 

[revhappy]

What do you mean by quitter mentality? Do your other NRI friends have this mentality too or you refering mainly yourself only ?

Some do, some don't. Those who do but are not very savvy investors, just keep their SGD here in bank accounts. Those who beleive in India growth story, remit their money to India and buy real estate or invest in FD in India. I had quitter mentality and kept my money here for quite long time and applied PR many times, but I didn't get it. Eventually I remitted most money to India, but I have allocated to global funds in India and some to Indian funds.

 

[d5dude]

Looks like you may have lost the thread of debate. The point is about the duration of recovery of China's current bear market. The factor being debated is the continuing loss of talent from China to US. My point is: it has stopped and is reversing due to worsening anti-Chinese persecution in US causing an invisible glass ceiling for Chinese in US. It is not about net migration to US from many countries.

My point is that there is no evidence that Chinese emigration to US has changed in the last couple of years (from statistics), or that it even matters at all (few Chinese founders/CEOs in US tech firms).

Also its irrelevant even if Chinese emigration to the US is projected to slow, because we know from official statistics that capital continues to flow out of China (despite strict capital controls) and emigration out of China (to the rest of the world) hasnt slowed, in fact official Chinese statistics show that the rate of net emigration has actually increased steadily since 2014 (after XJP took office), there was only a brief respite between 2008 - 2014, presumably due to the GFC (CCP massively stimulated the economy post GFC).

China is simply not the land of opportunity it once was before XJP took office, I said China was "uninvestable" 2+ years ago after the CCP deleted an entire industry (private education) overnight, things have only gotten worse since that pivotal moment, I think it will take a lot to change my mind.

Btw I am a firm believer of the efficient market hypothesis, I think all the doom and gloom is most likely already priced in at this point, I wouldnt cut China exposure to zero at current valuations, but I certainly would if and when the hot money starts to get excited/optimistic about China's long term growth prospects again.

 

[d5dude]

Instead of using this money to complete the property, the developers used the money to borrow more money from the China banks to bid for land to start other projects..

Well this is just insane since this money is usually kept separately in an escrow account in other countries, using this money to bid for land is misappropriation since the money has clearly been earmarked for property development.

Some people on weibo were saying that Chinese developers usually "空手套白狼", meaning they bid for land with zero or very little capital, if and when they get the land its mortgaged straight to the bank, only God knows where the proceeds ultimately end up. There is great incentive for developers and the local govts to place high bids on the land, since the land is what gets them the money from the banks. This is partly why Chinese real estate prices are where they are today.

Overall a very problematic situation with no easy solution.