[CONSOLIDATED] 柯文哲 Ko P Discussion Thread

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Deadmaninc75

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luvbitez said:
Charcoal has concluded Ke P will win the election.
stay tuned later today for a victory message from the president elect!

P3ON5PP.png


柯總統今天會接受木炭專訪
時間Wed Dec 27 10:07:05 2023
昨天木炭環島民調終於結束
絕對票數目前是由柯文哲絕對佔優
加權後請參考12/30的總結
昨天木炭也繼續開噴傳統民調
誰沒穿褲子1/13就知道了
堅定投柯就ㄧ定會贏
Click to expand...
Faked

10 characters
 
likevegetable

likevegetable

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luvbitez said:
they gvgt, gpgt…
accurate poll on previous elections.
will live stream president elect ah peh later at 1600hrs!
def not fake

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My issue if they are just adding those up ish that they put equal weights on all the cities. Eg. Big wins in Miaoli, Yunlin are not in the same class as Taipei, Xinbei, Kaohsiung.

Another ish his go around 民調 ish liddis....
 
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luvbitez

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likevegetable said:
My issue if they are just adding those up ish that they put equal weights on all the cities. Eg. Big wins in Miaoli, Yunlin are not in the same class as Taipei, Xinbei, Kaohsiung.

Another ish his go around 民調 ish liddis....
Click to expand...


the sampling is for taiwan as a whole without weighting on population size. those polled on the street often do not belong to the electorate where it was polled.
such randomisation should be gud enuff to eliminate systematic bias.
 
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luvbitez

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coldware said:
very difficult to believe he is leading now leh.
Click to expand...
blue n green r two extreme poles while hardcore supporters for each of them is only abt 15%..
traditionally the choice of most voters is determined by the party they hated the most. if they hate green then they will vote for blue not that they support the party.
with tpp as the middle ground, the equation of the game has changed.
green n blue both now not whacking one another but tpp to prevent losing votes to kpp; also why biased opinion polls n mainstream media all tilted against kpp..
the poll result from a social media like charcoal is the real reflection of the people choices in tw.
 
mgx-alander

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luvbitez said:
blue n green r two extreme poles while hardcore supporters for each of them is only abt 15%..
traditionally the choice of most voters is determined by the party they hated the most. if they hate green then they will vote for blue not that they support the party.
with tpp as the middle ground, the equation of the game has changed.
green n blue both now not whacking one another but tpp to prevent losing votes to kpp; also why biased opinion polls n mainstream media all tilted against kpp..
the poll result from a social media like charcoal is the real reflection of the people choices in tw.
Click to expand...
but there are green and blue voters who will come out to vote as long as their li zhang organize stuff for them on 13/1

KP vote can be diluted because young ppl need to go back to their hometown to vote which is troublesome

as voting is not compulsory, it is estimated that KP need at least 85% of young voters to win, otherwise lai pi will win after Winnie Xi say they will take back Taiwan no matter what on mao anniversary

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/27/china/china-xi-jinping-taiwan-reunification-intl-hnk/index.html

KMT will lao sai because of winnie xi words, most taiwanese dont want reunification.. the trend of the 10% gap in meli dao says so already, ignoring KP vote count.. so i duno if KMT is a friend of winnie or not given that... Xi is friendly to KMT but making them lose votes :s13:

so only green and white are fighting because they are not so friendly to winnie
 
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luvbitez

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mgx-alander said:
but there are green and blue voters who will come out to vote as long as their li zhang organize stuff for them on 13/1

KP vote can be diluted because young ppl need to go back to their hometown to vote which is troublesome

as voting is not compulsory, it is estimated that KP need at least 85% of young voters to win, otherwise lai pi will win after Winnie Xi say they will take back Taiwan no matter what on mao anniversary

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/27/china/china-xi-jinping-taiwan-reunification-intl-hnk/index.html

KMT will lao sai because of winnie xi words, most taiwanese dont want reunification.. the trend of the 10% gap in meli dao says so already, ignoring KP vote count.. so i duno if KMT is a friend of winnie or not given that... Xi is friendly to KMT but making them lose votes :s13:

so only green and white are fighting because they are not so friendly to winnie
Click to expand...
if green n blue play dirty then ke p will not win.
if all powderful ccp decides to support dpp by calling for reunification then dpp will win.
 
mgx-alander

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luvbitez said:
if green n blue play dirty then ke p will not win.
if all powderful ccp decides to support dpp by calling for reunification then dpp will win.
Click to expand...
winnie xi has already done that 2 days ago to support DPP

i wonder what KMT is thinking now after winnie xi make that announcement
 
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luvbitez

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mgx-alander said:
winnie xi has already done that 2 days ago to support DPP
Click to expand...

dun think its a renew call for reunification..
its originated from a US senator narrating apec meeting of biden-winnie in november.
hope winnie can renew his call n dpp will love him deep deep for cancelling out the voter swing to ke p..
 
mgx-alander

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coldware

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luvbitez said:
blue n green r two extreme poles while hardcore supporters for each of them is only abt 15%..
traditionally the choice of most voters is determined by the party they hated the most. if they hate green then they will vote for blue not that they support the party.
with tpp as the middle ground, the equation of the game has changed.
green n blue both now not whacking one another but tpp to prevent losing votes to kpp; also why biased opinion polls n mainstream media all tilted against kpp..
the poll result from a social media like charcoal is the real reflection of the people choices in tw.
Click to expand...
but oldies don't have social media leh, so listen half half jiu hao? lol
 
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