[CONSOLIDATED] 柯文哲 Ko P Discussion Thread

[luvbitez]

https://www.wionews.com/world/taiwa...en-says-xi-jinping-on-maos-anniversary-673983

it is dated 26 Dec

indian news anyhow whack..
winnie‘s full transcript here:
https://www.zytzb.gov.cn/zytzb/2023-12/27/article_2023122709082970895.shtml

 

[luvbitez]

but oldies don't have social media leh, so listen half half jiu hao? lol

charcoal’s poll has already encompassed voters’ support (or lack of) from boomers above 50..

 

[mgx-alander]

charcoal’s poll has already encompassed voters’ support (or lack of) from boomers above 50..

KP has already admitted to systematic bias at the start of the interbiew

charcoal did not catch those staying at home and hardly go out ones, KP will still lose, these are silent majority and will come out if the li zhang give them some goodies on voting day

the same systematic bias applies with beauti island, it is unable to capture those outside and not at home one

if u can come out with some algo to combine charcoal + beauti island, then it will be more accurate

but i must say from the looks of it DPP will win at this current state with KP behind and KMT last

 

[luvbitez]

KP has already admitted to systematic bias at the start of the interbiew

charcoal did not catch those staying at home and hardly go out ones, KP will still lose, these are silent majority and will come out if the li zhang give them some goodies on voting day

the same systematic bias applies with beauti island, it is unable to capture those outside and not at home one

if u can come out with some algo to combine charcoal + beauti island, then it will be more accurate

but i must say from the looks of it DPP will win at this current state with KP behind and KMT last

yes, impossible to hv samples 100% of statistical relevant.
quite certain now KMT is out of the game, 13th jan will be a DPP vs TPP 麻花捲…

 

[TUV2008]

yes, impossible to hv samples 100% of statistical relevant.
quite certain now KMT is out of the game, 13th jan will be a DPP vs TPP 麻花捲…

Hard to believe what you said but I hope it comes true

 

[mgx-alander]

i like how hyy gpgt with his signboards

 

[lifezard]

KP has already admitted to systematic bias at the start of the interbiew

charcoal did not catch those staying at home and hardly go out ones, KP will still lose, these are silent majority and will come out if the li zhang give them some goodies on voting day

the same systematic bias applies with beauti island, it is unable to capture those outside and not at home one

if u can come out with some algo to combine charcoal + beauti island, then it will be more accurate

but i must say from the looks of it DPP will win at this current state with KP behind and KMT last

I watched the live stream. Even with the street interviews lai is winning right? 37+% vs 35+%. It seems even the most optimistic pro-ke-p estimations project a lai victory... which I feel is the most probable outcome right now, barring any real serious incidents in the last few weeks.

If ke-p can poll anything close to 35% they have to consider this a minor victory. Certainly a victory for street interviews who at least can brag they are more accurate than ugly island.

 

[mgx-alander]

I watched the live stream. Even with the street interviews lai is winning right? 37+% vs 35+%. It seems even the most optimistic pro-ke-p estimations project a lai victory... which I feel is the most probable outcome right now, barring any real serious incidents in the last few weeks.

If ke-p can poll anything close to 35% they have to consider this a minor victory. Certainly a victory for street interviews who at least can brag they are more accurate than ugly island.

yes 35.93 vs 37.5 smth

if ppl want to change gahment, must qibao hou if not i think lai will win flat

 

[TUV2008]

I want to see how 吴董flip prata tonight based on latest poll

 

[TUV2008]

Wa Lau the host寶傑and 吳董all missing tonight means kena 收押清算了！

 

[mgx-alander]

Wa Lau the host寶傑and 吳董all missing tonight means kena 收押清算了！

dun have 寶傑 where got nice to watch.. i like his dramatic reactions

 

[luvbitez]

yes 35.93 vs 37.5 smth

if ppl want to change gahment, must qibao hou if not i think lai will win flat

charcoal’s corrected prediction:
kp - 35.93%
dpp - 37.49%
kmt - 26.58%

still stand on my prediction dtd 25nov:

my bet on 14jan:
kp - 38%
dpp - 36%
kmt - 20%

ie dark horse will win only by inches..

whats yrs?

 

[menthol28]

yes 35.93 vs 37.5 smth

if ppl want to change gahment, must qibao hou if not i think lai will win flat

How to 弃保 HYY when all the media are 80% pro DPP and 20% pro KMT? In fact media all asking Ke supporters to 弃保 Ke
I think left 19 days only, looks like Lai will win comfortably, even his illegal house issue is not affecting his polls, in fact HYY and wife as Landlord is pulling his polls down

 

[lifezard]

yes 35.93 vs 37.5 smth

if ppl want to change gahment, must qibao hou if not i think lai will win flat

At this moment unlikely to have qibao effect when either side portraying themselves as leading the other. Want to qibao hou, quite likely have to operated from pan blue media (tvbs zhongtian) side themselves, i.e. depicting the hokang combo as a lost cause etc.

But seriously do pan blue people really want ke-p in power? They will probably regret from day 1 just like how the greens regretted supporting ke-p in the 2014 Taipei mayor elections. The difference between ke-p and kmt is a lot bigger than between ke-p and dpp.

 

[menthol28]

At this moment unlikely to have qibao effect when either side portraying themselves as leading the other. Want to qibao hou, quite likely have to operated from pan blue media (tvbs zhongtian) side themselves, i.e. depicting the hokang combo as a lost cause etc.

But seriously do pan blue people really want ke-p in power? They will probably regret from day 1 just like how the greens regretted supporting ke-p in the 2014 Taipei mayor elections. The difference between ke-p and kmt is a lot bigger than between ke-p and dpp.

At this moment I like to show you YT clips of HYY and Zhu harping about 小我and 大我

 

[mgx-alander]

charcoal’s corrected prediction:
kp - 35.93%
dpp - 37.49%
kmt - 26.58%

still stand on my prediction dtd 25nov:


whats yrs?

As of Today? altho i sarpork ah peh, but his battle is very difficult

KP 34%
KMT 28%
Lai P 38%

Lai P will win if voting turn up rate for young people is low,

KP need to work on earning his oldies vote... he came up with something like our PG Package, > 65 years jian bao free and remove some laws that prevented oldies form working (IF THEY WANT TO, not increase retirement age like pap )

Today 33 release their internal polls, Lai P leading by a huge margin

 

[luvbitez]

As of Today? altho i sarpork ah peh, but his battle is very difficult

KP 34%
KMT 28%
Lai P 38%

Lai P will win if voting turn up rate for young people is low,

KP need to work on earning his oldies vote... he came up with something like our PG Package, > 65 years jian bao free and remove some laws that prevented oldies form working (IF THEY WANT TO, not increase retirement age like pap )

Today 33 release their internal polls, Lai P leading by a huge margin

we do our predictions for fun here.
by law all survey/prediction must be finalised by 3jan.. thereafter no one should give any number..
charcoal very steady - first to 封關 ie will not make any changes..
wonder what 美麗倒’s 封關 will be at the last minutes…

 

[bongnino]

yes, impossible to hv samples 100% of statistical relevant.
quite certain now KMT is out of the game, 13th jan will be a DPP vs TPP 麻花捲…

Hard to believe what you said but I hope it comes true

I watched the live stream. Even with the street interviews lai is winning right? 37+% vs 35+%. It seems even the most optimistic pro-ke-p estimations project a lai victory... which I feel is the most probable outcome right now, barring any real serious incidents in the last few weeks.

If ke-p can poll anything close to 35% they have to consider this a minor victory. Certainly a victory for street interviews who at least can brag they are more accurate than ugly island.

charcoal’s corrected prediction:
kp - 35.93%
dpp - 37.49%
kmt - 26.58%

still stand on my prediction dtd 25nov:


whats yrs?

As of Today? altho i sarpork ah peh, but his battle is very difficult

KP 34%
KMT 28%
Lai P 38%

Lai P will win if voting turn up rate for young people is low,

KP need to work on earning his oldies vote... he came up with something like our PG Package, > 65 years jian bao free and remove some laws that prevented oldies form working (IF THEY WANT TO, not increase retirement age like pap )

Today 33 release their internal polls, Lai P leading by a huge margin

It's very very weird that you all actually think Ke can poll more than 25% even lol. Based on what .. some dodgy opinion surveys here and there? Based on how aggressive and vocal his supporters are? Just like some of you here? Do you all know all of the "hao de tou ke" flooding and aggressive "I am right you are wrong" behaviours from TPP, have pissed many middle ground people off?

White is meant to be a breakthrough and differential way of politics than green or blue but all these behaviors above by people like you, have made white the same or WORSE than typical green/blue. And that has pissed many middle ground people off big time.

So it's almost virtually impossible that tpp can poll more than 25%.

Sorry don't mean to burst your bubbles or diss for the sake of dissing .. you all have the rights to support him or whoever.

Just trying to say... some of your views are ultra unrealistic and far from reality. Very far in fact.

It's like you all didn't realise you are watching a wrong football match/channel and thinking it's the correct match lolol.

 

[testart]

Left 6 days to campaign

Last 10 days cooling period

 

[testart]

Why everyone calling William Lai as Lai Pi Liao?