Forex/Cryptocurrency General Chit Chat Thread

[awful999]

Tiagong McDonalds pay is S$10.00/hr? Zhun boh?

Please don't bluff uncle like me leh. I work at fast food restaurant when I was a small boy for S$1.90/hr.

McDonalds pay got so high at S$10.00/hr?

Applying for McDonalds part time job now!

normally day is $5 per hour, hoilday is double pay $10

 

[Mr.Canberra]

also good lah. retires can go mcd exercise and free food, no need collect cardboard box.

Walau high cholesterol leh! Retirees are not young people ok!

normally day is $5 per hour, hoilday is double pay $10

Chey still so low!

 

[Mr.Canberra]

More and more Crypto ponzi snakeoil schemes with guaranteed returns nowadays. U-ASS-I Tech.

If so ho kang tao then no need to be trader liao loh!

I remember got one clown said he only have winning trades and do not practice NO STOP LOSS. It is like go casino buy BIG open BIG, buy SMALL open SMALL. Walau God Of Wall Street sia!

 

[Mr.Canberra]

'High Interest Savings Account' Strategy

https://www.valuewalk.com/2018/04/trade-wars-and-fx-carry-part-1-of-3/

Article quite cheem but some fund managers are making a killing with EM carry trades with calculated risks.

The words 'arbitrage' and 'basket of currency pairs' mentioned in the article are what I have always been advocating. In layman terms it means to profit from market inefficiencies in pricing and with the lowest risk possible.

A very good example is CNY (onshore) and CNH (offshore). If one day (not any time soon) should China completely liberalise RMB and make it freely tradable then I cannot exploit this 'loophole' to arbitrage both exchange and interest rate differentials any more.

Too cheem to understand what I have said? No worries if you have the passion for Forex you will have the determination to research and study in depth. If your main purpose is to make some quick bucks then sorry Forex is not the easiest way. But if you know what you are doing then Forex is the least risky way out of all asset classes to profit if you use unconventional strategies.

~ Stocks and bonds can go to zero but not Forex.
~ Provided margin is sufficient if no stop loss.

This is why I love Forex because the mathematics of it is just so intriguing to me. Now you all know inside the brain of the Ah Neh money changer is not so simple.

One part of Forex is to buy big or small and hope you make the correct bet. Another part of Forex is like performing a magic trick by making a big object to appear by using a small object (leverage/arbitrage) as an illusion.

What Is FX Carry?

FX carry is a pairs trading concept that combines these two elements:

long position in a cash or derivative security denominated in a currency with higher prevailing government bond yields
short position in a cash or derivative security denominated in a currency with lower government bond yields

In other words, investors may require a risk premium to buy such currencies. Countless studies have examined the record of FX carry strategies, and over the long run, returns are stronger and more robust than in most other asset classes.

In fact, an astonishingly simple global FX carry strategy, using the 28 most liquid currencies and the same mechanics described above, would have generated 9% returns over the past decade with a Sharpe ratio of 0.8 (12/31/2007 – 12/31/2017, source: Tullett Prebon, Jirisan calculations). That bests the S&P 500’s 8.5% annualized return over the same period, with a 0.5 Sharpe ratio). Standard deviation of returns was slightly lower and drawdowns were significantly lower.

Because the strategy often involves leverage, optimistic traders can easily lose all their capital. Up to 200x leverage is available in some trading venues. However, when normalized for volatility, drawdowns are no worse than for overall fixed income assets. With the modest amounts of leverage taken in a diverse basket of currency pairs, the strategy is generally no more volatile than corporate bonds.

 

[ExtremeWays]

https://www.valuewalk.com/2018/04/trade-wars-and-fx-carry-part-1-of-3/

Article quite cheem but some fund managers are making a killing with EM carry trades with calculated risks.

The words 'arbitrage' and 'basket of currency pairs' mentioned in the article are what I have always been advocating. In layman terms it means to profit from market inefficiencies in pricing and with the lowest risk possible.

A very good example is CNY (onshore) and CNH (offshore). If one day (not any time soon) should China completely liberalise RMB and make it freely tradable then I cannot exploit this 'loophole' to arbitrage both exchange and interest rate differentials any more.

Too cheem to understand what I have said? No worries if you have the passion for Forex you will have the determination to research and study in depth. If your main purpose is to make some quick bucks then sorry Forex is not the easiest way. But if you know what you are doing then Forex is the least risky way out of all asset classes to profit if you use unconventional strategies.

~ Stocks and bonds can go to zero but not Forex.
~ Provided margin is sufficient if no stop loss.

This is why I love Forex because the mathematics of it is just so intriguing to me. Now you all know inside the brain of the Ah Neh money changer is not so simple.

One part of Forex is to buy big or small and hope you make the correct bet. Another part of Forex is like performing a magic trick by making a big object to appear by using a small object (leverage/arbitrage) as an illusion.

Nice article...... Gam sia....

 

[[M]aiev]

Tiagong McDonalds pay is S$10.00/hr? Zhun boh?

Please don't bluff uncle like me leh. I work at fast food restaurant when I was a small boy for S$1.90/hr.

McDonalds pay got so high at S$10.00/hr?

Applying for McDonalds part time job now!

MCD $10/hr I might consider leh. I think is public holidays then $10/hr lah. Go drive grab/cab can earn more than that lor.

 

[[M]aiev]

normally day is $5 per hour, hoilday is double pay $10

I work as a waiter at public holiday also close to double lor.

 

[ExtremeWays]

I work as a waiter at public holiday also close to double lor.

Got any job to intro????

 

[peterchan75]

One part of Forex is to buy big or small and hope you make the correct bet. Another part of Forex is like performing a magic trick by making a big object to appear by using a small object (leverage/arbitrage) as an illusion.

The Illusion of Validity

 

[awful999]

I work as a waiter at public holiday also close to double lor.

ya now almost all hourly work double pay in public hoilday

 

[Takodoro]

https://www.valuewalk.com/2018/04/trade-wars-and-fx-carry-part-1-of-3/

Article quite cheem but some fund managers are making a killing with EM carry trades with calculated risks.

The words 'arbitrage' and 'basket of currency pairs' mentioned in the article are what I have always been advocating. In layman terms it means to profit from market inefficiencies in pricing and with the lowest risk possible.

A very good example is CNY (onshore) and CNH (offshore). If one day (not any time soon) should China completely liberalise RMB and make it freely tradable then I cannot exploit this 'loophole' to arbitrage both exchange and interest rate differentials any more.

Too cheem to understand what I have said? No worries if you have the passion for Forex you will have the determination to research and study in depth. If your main purpose is to make some quick bucks then sorry Forex is not the easiest way. But if you know what you are doing then Forex is the least risky way out of all asset classes to profit if you use unconventional strategies.

~ Stocks and bonds can go to zero but not Forex.
~ Provided margin is sufficient if no stop loss.

This is why I love Forex because the mathematics of it is just so intriguing to me. Now you all know inside the brain of the Ah Neh money changer is not so simple.

One part of Forex is to buy big or small and hope you make the correct bet. Another part of Forex is like performing a magic trick by making a big object to appear by using a small object (leverage/arbitrage) as an illusion.

Yes arbitrage means to profit from inefficiency. But it still require you to make the right judgment call. The main assumption is that USD has low interest rate and will not appreciate against IDR.

My A-level A-grade economics say that if USD interest rate increase, USD will appreciate. With the never-ending trade war discussion nowadays, my A-level A-grade economics again say that countries will try to depreciate their currency against USD to boost export in the short-term. But textbook economics also say that any countries that impose tariff will ultimately suffer in their economics. So will USD rise or will USD drop? I don't know. But the vibe I got is that USD will benefit more from trade war than China. China is usually very arrogant in their diplomatic stance. But you can see this time round they are being very humble in all their speeches regarding trade war topic.

But arbitrage definitely help to hedge against risk. Simple real life scenario for me: EUR/USD drop, USD/SGD drop, so I "arbitrage" and go short EUR/SGD. In the end, EUR/SGD rise by about 200 pips. I really chua sai. Luckily I got other currency pair to help to mitigate the impact.

After last week adventure/mis-adventure with focus fire, which cause my NAV to increase and drop by 10%, I am going back to "basic" again this week. As they said, profit is temporary, loss is permanent. Really must "bu bu wei ying", and not be greedy and make a huge bet at any time. Good luck all this week.

 

[Takodoro]

0144 GMT - The Bank of Japan expanded its holdings of Japanese government debt by Y49.4 trillion during the fiscal year that ended on March 31, well below Y75.2 trillion the previous year and the bank's Y80 trillion guidance, according to BOJ data. During the current fiscal year, about Y52 trillion of JGBs in the BOJ's portfolio are expected to mature, meaning the bank will need to buy much larger amounts of bonds to maintain even its current pace, says Yoshimasa Maruyama, chief market economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. The BOJ's policy switch to interest rate targets in September 2016 has reduced the bank's asset purchases so far. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

 

[[M]aiev]

ya now almost all hourly work double pay in public hoilday

Some places damn kiam siap one esp during public holiday one. I worked at Tunglock during CNY at this year and it was $18/hr lor. I know of Chinese restaurant which pays at $20/hr but that one bo slot when I asked.

 

[ExtremeWays]

Kiwis is underrated

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (APR 9-13, 2018)

EURUSD:

Technical Outlook: The EURUSD currency pair touched down just a few pips shy off the 1.2213 handle which marks a strong level of support. The consolidation over the past few weeks has resulted in EURUSD forming a descending wedge pattern. Watch for a near term decline to 1.2250 where support could be established. A reversal off this support level could signal EURUSD targeting 1.2323 followed by a move higher toward 1.2385. In the event that price action slips below the support at 1.2250 then we expect to see the downside resume.

Fundamental Outlook: The week ahead will see mostly second tier data from the Euro Zone coming out. Following the previous week’s data which showed that consumer confidence in the Eurozone slipped, the week ahead will see the SENTIX investor confidence data which could potentially validate the concerns among officials especially when it comes to the global trade uncertainty. The German and the Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment data will also be coming out. Later in the week, the ECB’s monetary policy meeting minutes will be released as well. The minutes cover the ECB’s March monetary policy meeting where the central bank left monetary policy unchanged but gave a hawkish forward guidance.

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (APR 9-13, 2018)

GBPUSD:

The GBPUSD managed to defend the big psychological level 1.4000 and posted a strong weekly close above it. Last week late rally was motivated by the weaker than expected NFP report, which can provide further fuel for the bullish trend. As long as we stay above the big round number 1.4000, we should expect the GBPUSD to challenge our next level of resistance at 1.4244. A daily break and close above 1.4244 can open the door for a retest of the current yearly high 1.4315 level.

The stochastic indicator is rapidly moving into overbought territory, so early in the week we need to be nimble while we wait for the stochastic indicator to rest. If the 1.4000 level manage to hold the downside during the retest than the bulls can have the momentum on their side again. However a daily break and close below 1.4000 can open the door for a deeper retracement into support level 1.3900. The UK economic calendar has some notable risk events that can disrupt the market volatility. Tuesday will bring the NIESR GDP estimate for the first 3 months of the year while on Wednesday the Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance figures will drive the currency exchange rates. Before the week finishes, the BOE’s Carney is also due to speak at the Canada Growth Summit, in Toronto on Thursday.

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (APR 9-13, 2018)

USDCHF:

Technical Outlook: The USDCHF posted strong gains over the week and reached the upside target of 0.9629. The gains came after a brief period of consolidation in the price near the 0.9462 level. Following this rally, USDCHF was seen giving up the gains rather quickly by Friday’s close. In the near term, USDCHF is expected to maintain the range within the mentioned resistance and support levels. Watch for another modest gain to the upside and if USDCHF forms a lower high below 0.9629, then we expect to see price action falling back to the support level.

Fundamental Outlook: Data from Switzerland this week is quiet with only the unemployment rate and the producer price index data on the cards. Most of the flows into the Swiss franc will be determined by the economic data from the U.S. and the market sentiment to a certain extent. This week, the economic data from the U.S. will cover the producer prices index as well as the consumer prices index data. A higher than expected increase in inflation could potentially keep the markets on the back foot as speculation could rise that the Fed will hike four times this year against the current expectations of three rate hikes. On Wednesday, the FOMC meeting minutes data will be released which could be a highlight for the markets.

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (APR 9-13, 2018)

USDJPY:

Technical Outlook: The USDJPY currency pair rallied to a five week high last week as price action traded briefly around the 107.00 level. The U.S. dollar was seen giving up the gains rather promptly. However, price action is seen supported near the price level of 107.00 – 106.85. If this support level holds, then we expect USDJPY to turn to the upside with renewed momentum. Resistance at 108.34 will be the most likely upside target. Alternately, a close below the current support level could signal a decline toward the 105.78 handle.

Fundamental Outlook: Data from Japan this week will start off with the consumer confidence report due on Monday. Later in the week, the preliminary machine tool orders will be coming out followed by the core machinery orders report on Tuesday. It is a relatively light week as far as the Japanese yen is concerned. However, the yen could be seen reflecting the ongoing uncertainty especially in regards to trade pacts between the U.S. and China. The market sentiment is likely to remain cautious and this could reflect in the Japanese yen that could continue to strengthen as the market’s risk appetitie wanes.

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (APR 9-13, 2018)

USDCAD:

The USDCAD technical pattern suggests that the Canadian dollar might be poised for more strength in the near future after the USD/CAD successfully managed to break below key support level 1.2800. However, a daily break and close above 1.2800 can easily negate the bullish case and put the bulls in the money again. In this case we can’t rule out the possibility of a retest of intraday resistance level 1.2940.

On the downside, we can note important support at 1.2688 followed by 1.2570 but with the stochastic indicator in oversold territory we’ll have to wait for the reset until more downside can be seen. There are no major risk events scheduled on the Canadian economic calendar but we can mention some minor risk events on Monday when the BOE business outlook survey is released an on Tuesday we have the Building Permits.

 

[Mr. Wood]

WEEKLY FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK: (APR 9-13, 2018)

AUDUSD:

The Aussie didn’t manage to post any gains despite the broad based dollar weakness. This makes the AUD/USD more vulnerable on the downside and a break below 0.7640 previous week low can be seen. However, for the bears to really take control of the trend we need a daily close below 0.7640, otherwise this can be proven a false breakout that can potentially form a new swing low.

On the upside the last week high 0.7726 can be a good level of resistance. However, the bulls have a chance to dominate this market only if they manage to bring the AUDUSD above key resistance level 0.7800. The stochastic indicator is neutral territory, so not much insight can be taken out of it. There are no major risk events on the Australian economic calendar other than the speech of RBA Governor Lowe which is due to speak at the Australia-Israel Chamber of Commerce, in Perth.