[GE2025] Extensive changes to electoral boundaries due to population shifts; only 5 GRCs, 4 SMCs left intact

[buzzlightyear852]

Not so easy one lah.. I strongly suspect oppy parties inside got 卧底... if needed, the 卧底 will press the button to self destruct the oppy parties.. nothing new really..

that rk is a good example lor.

 

[Jacy_Phang]

I am currently under Sengkang WP one. Honestly, the MP from Sengkang WP never even walk on the ground one. Never even seen him face to face before. But I will still vote for WP not because of he got walk on the ground or not, but is WE NEED MORE OPPOSITION to voice our concerns as an entire country, not just electoral locations.
If not, we are no different from North Korea, frankly speaking.

Which MP? Jamus or Louis?

 

[tokong]

I am currently under Sengkang WP one. Honestly, the MP from Sengkang WP never even walk on the ground one. Never even seen him face to face before. But I will still vote for WP not because of he got walk on the ground or not, but is WE NEED MORE OPPOSITION to voice our concerns as an entire country, not just electoral locations.
If not, we are no different from North Korea, frankly speaking.

Like your name - hosehliao.

 

[vegaspace]

Those Joo Chiat residents won't be able to offset the larger numbers in the newly added Chai Chee HDB estates, aka Boomer Central. You know how this group swings.

I read the interesting analysis below by a redditor who suggested that Chai Chee was added to balance Joo Chiat. Overall, East Coast is still very competitive but it may be hard for WP to win it. TPL's MacPherson is the lynchpin for PAP in the new Marine Parade GRC.

My observations for the northeast/east side:


I don't think there's too much gerrymandering over what's already done as there were already few SMCs for WP to focus on. Specifically, the whole movements in the East was a merry-go-round resulting from the need to split up Pasir Ris Punggol:


- It was quite obvious that Pasir-Ris Punggol would likely get split- it was one of the largest GRCs and should have had 6 MPs in fact- and Punggol and Pasir Ris are very different towns. Its perfectly logical to have a GRC for Punggol (which WP already expected and was walking the ground) By splitting it into two, there was insufficient voters for Pasir Ris (87k) and this had to be combined with some of neighbouring East Coast to bring it up to enough numbers. Pasir Ris will probably be contested by the SDA, while Punggol will be likely contested by the WP and is similar in profile to Sengkang- a sleeper pickup if the chips all fall right.


- East Coast was already underpopulated (smaller than Sengkang in fact) and had to take in voters from somewhere. Tampines is already well drawn but somewhat overpopulated, and the EBRC choose to carve out a SMC in a safe portion of Tampines instead (mostly mature HDB blocks), and to bring voters over from Marine Parade to East Coast. Joo Chiat will make it too vulnerable (see 2011) so Chai Chee had to be brought over to balance it out. It overall probably is a wash for risk profile, and WP will make another attempt which might well fall short yet again.


- But that has the effect of Marine Parade being underpopulated, and thus they have to dig for voters from the neighboring const to bring it up to numbers- EBRC choose to slice off parts of Mountbatten/Potong Pasir. Marine Parade is now dependent on Macpherson and TPL, its probably slightly less risky than EC and will also be hotly contested by the WP.


- The Aljunied change- its logical and perfectly defensible- those condos could have been overlooked but with new BTOs coming up there, they should be in Tampines as they identify more with Tampines than the far-away Aljunied. Likely wil make little to no change in the Aljunied and Tampines risk- its only 3800 votes from 2 condos at present.


- AMK was over populated and had to cough up a SMC somewhere- the choice was either on the west side (which already has Kebun Baru and YCK split up, another SMC split will result in it becoming "Hougang GRC" instead of AMK GRC), or on the east. Anything in Hougang is too risky- WP is strong in the area- so the only choice is what is Jalan Kayu (its bascially the old Sengkang West SMC from 2011/2015. Regardless, Jalan Kayu is prime territory and its going to be hotly contested by the WP as a potential pickup- all opposition knows it which is why so many are already staking claims.


- Bishan-Toa Payoh, Nee Soon and Marymount are already well drawn and match their respective estates, no justification to redraw- the only puzzling thing is why Marymount didnt get subsumed back into Bishan-Toa Payoh- they must be confident that Gan Siow Huang can hold it for the PAP. Dont think any will be contested by WP and none are at risk other than Marymount if PSP gives it a good go again.

 

[charleslee1989]

Did not really get your question.
Correct me if I read it wrongly.

Using CSJ as a case study.
You mean how to react if CSJ found out that his target area become larger.
Then, he have to decide to raise more funds and gather more volunteers for the battle.
Or just move to a SMC for his battle.

Being a OPP is never easy.
If you are too fixated about the boundary change, then you are just losing time on generating solutions to fight the battle.
Or else just give it up completely.

The more popular opposition parties like WP,PSP and SDP all never reveal their cards at all. They all need to think on how to campaign going based on the 30% hardcore oppo supporter, 40% hardcore Pap and the rest being swing voters...

 

[tokong]

I read the interesting analysis below by a redditor who suggested that Chai Chee was added to balance Joo Chiat. Overall, East Coast is still very competitive but it may be hard for WP to win it. TPL's MacPherson is the lynchpin for PAP in the new Marine Parade GRC.

Lim Biow Chuan and Tintin there how to win wor.

GE2020

Constituency	PAP Candidate	PAP Votes	PAP (%)	Opponent (Party)	Opponent Votes	Opponent (%)	Total Valid Votes
MacPherson SMC	Tin Pei Ling	14,115	71.74%	Goh Meng Seng (PPP)	5,559	28.26%	19,674
Potong Pasir SMC	Sitoh Yih Pin	11,232	60.69%	Jose Raymond (SPP)	7,275	39.31%	18,507
Mountbatten SMC	Lim Biow Chuan	16,227	73.84%	Sivakumaran (PV)	5,748	26.16%	21,975

 

[gonewiththesmart]

if all opp contest below 50%, their chance is higher than contesting 80% and above.
now we see one 4 corner and few 3 corners fights,, no eye see lah.

 

[jericho75]

u all happy every 5 years can start moving houses without physically moving. also dun need mop one.

 

[nasfieldjohn]

The more popular opposition parties like WP,PSP and SDP all never reveal their cards at all. They all need to think on how to campaign going based on the 30% hardcore oppo supporter, 40% hardcore Pap and the rest being swing voters...

should ask the 30 swing sinkies want their caipng be 10 dollars or not

 

[mryang]

The more popular opposition parties like WP,PSP and SDP all never reveal their cards at all. They all need to think on how to campaign going based on the 30% hardcore oppo supporter, 40% hardcore Pap and the rest being swing voters...

But Dr chee a really revealed he going to contest at bb smc

While WP and PSP continue their ground work out reach as usual

 

[mryang]

u all happy every 5 years can start moving houses without physically moving. also dun need mop one.

Watch Electoral Boundaries_ A Political Merry-Go-Round

 

[jericho75]

But Dr chee a really revealed he going to contest at bb smc

While WP and PSP continue their ground work out reach as usual

he can come gombak.

 

[gonewiththesmart]

If we dont unite together and vote the mandate out, we will really “hoseh liao” in the upcoming years.

Late LKY quoted this before, “I think there will come a time when eventually the public will say, look, let’s try the other side, either because the PAP has declined in quality or the opposition has put up a team which is equal to the PAP and they say, let’s try the other side,” he said. “It must come.”

And FYI, mandate party last time in the 1959 also opposition.

So please vote wisely.

every ge, i am prepared miw lose majority...i always remember 1959 , change sky in over night

 

[Jacy_Phang]

Louis

Never join his fb page ah? He was my ex-mp. I think he does show face but at rv plaza at times.

 

[mryang]

he can come gombak.

Jurong central smc kym

 

[icebleue]

I read the interesting analysis below by a redditor who suggested that Chai Chee was added to balance Joo Chiat. Overall, East Coast is still very competitive but it may be hard for WP to win it. TPL's MacPherson is the lynchpin for PAP in the new Marine Parade GRC.

Agree with this analysis.

WP should focus on Punggol GRC and Jalan Kayu SMC...
Might do a Sengkang 2.0

East Coast and Marine Parade actually quite hard.
In fact, East Coast now quite fortified that its almost impossible to win.
Edwin Tong going over... and with Heng Swee Keat still there, what has WP gonna offer??

Marine Parade GRC is weak though

 

[gonewiththesmart]

Watch Electoral Boundaries_ A Political Merry-Go-Round

why miw keep the three strong hold of WP,, Aljunied just lose 3890 voters to Tampines.
Can MIW destroy all the castles of WP? of course, can lah.

quote n translation
【选区划分】反对党选区罕见出现变化 阿裕尼集选区小部分范围划入淡滨尼
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/singapore/story20250311-5999346

被划入淡滨尼集选区，受影响选民人数为3834人。 不过，另外两个属于工人党的盛港集选区和后港单选区，选区范围检讨委员会建议保留现有范围。

The number of voters affected by the inclusion of Tampines GRC is 3,834. However, the other two constituencies, Sengkang GRC and Hougang SMC, which belong to the Workers' Party, were recommended by the constituency review committee to retain their existing boundaries.

 

[vegaspace]

Lim Biow Chuan and Tintin there how to win wor.

GE2020

Constituency	PAP Candidate	PAP Votes	PAP (%)	Opponent (Party)	Opponent Votes	Opponent (%)	Total Valid Votes
MacPherson SMC	Tin Pei Ling	14,115	71.74%	Goh Meng Seng (PPP)	5,559	28.26%	19,674
Potong Pasir SMC	Sitoh Yih Pin	11,232	60.69%	Jose Raymond (SPP)	7,275	39.31%	18,507
Mountbatten SMC	Lim Biow Chuan	16,227	73.84%	Sivakumaran (PV)	5,748	26.16%	21,975

Lim Biow Chuan is not in the new Marine Parade. His Mountbatten SMC is still separate, but some parts were carved out and added to the new GRC.

To win MP GRC, WP either has to win a decent amount of votes in MacPherson or get enough support from elsewhere in the GRC to offset the boomers.

 

[jonleelk]

Louis

His Facebook page quite regularly post his block visits.

 

[gonewiththesmart]

Maybe I conveyed my comments in a wrong way.
I am not sure whether CSJ is connecting his cafe with the party even though he is holding some of their activities there.
(That is one point I cannot confirm cos I dunno.)

I can only say that CSJ may want to give the meal as a token of appreciation for the donations.
But, the donation also "covered" the cost of the meal.
(Ha, Ha, Ha. Hope I am not causing more confusion.)

chee dinner / lunch donation drive emphasis for Bt Batok fight only---for him only