General S-REITs Discussion Thread

[sohguanh]

i think the rising US 10Y bond yield is the trigger for all these... feel like there's more room to go down since 10Y yield is still less than 1Y yield

For blue chip REIT stock there will be a support price I think. Can you imagine Capland or Frasters or Mapletree REIT stock trading at 1 cent ? Cannot be correct so mystery is what will then be that support price for each of them hmm....

 

[sohguanh]

Forget to share SGX stock same as REIT allow contra and shorting. So those transactions do not mean really got investors with genuine buy/sell intention for the REIT stock. They are just using it to earn monies they have zero intention to hold on to the stock at all. Such activity is rampant in a bear market like this year.

https://www.sgx.com/research-education/securities

Above URL provide a lot of info for those curious to know.

 

[endlssorrow]

For blue chip REIT stock there will be a support price I think. Can you imagine Capland or Frasters or Mapletree REIT stock trading at 1 cent ? Cannot be correct so mystery is what will then be that support price for each of them hmm....

Nobody know the support price and won’t drop to $0.10

 

[boliao123]

For blue chip REIT stock there will be a support price I think. Can you imagine Capland or Frasters or Mapletree REIT stock trading at 1 cent ? Cannot be correct so mystery is what will then be that support price for each of them hmm....

yeah given reits are backed by real, hard and cash producing assets there will real tangible value - but it will also fluctuate given the interest rate environment.

 

[DevilPlate]

Nobody know the support price and won’t drop to $0.10

Blue chip reits cannot drop to zero....those quality reits survived 08 gfc crisis which is alot worst than current situation.

If buy sampan reits, ofc can drop to zero lah when nobody wana lend to them haha

 

[Iyarash11]

China just keeps melting. I have a feeling their stock market will just be closed down and everything marked to zero.

they kinda have many resources to pawn to keep they market looks like normal
just like slowly drain off ground water, apparently on the surface looks ok, but what's the consequence?

 

[sohguanh]

Parkwaylife REIT, CDL HTrust hit new 52 week low today. Dun think they are small as market cap is 1 , 2 billion.

 

[Shion]

S-REITs' current unit prices an 'attractive opportunity' to reposition for eventual interest rate pause: PhillipCapital​

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/ca...es-attractive-opportunity-reposition-eventual

PhillipCapital analyst Darren Chan is keeping his “overweight” rating on Singapore REITs (S-REITs) with the S-REIT Index down by 3.2% m-o-m. The bulk of losses came during the last two weeks after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held interest rates unchanged and indicated that rates will likely remain higher for longer.

At their current unit price levels, S-REITs are trading at a forward dividend yield of 6.4% or 0.5 standard deviations (s.d.) above the mean of 6.1% and a P/NAV of 0.86x, 2.0 s.d. below the mean of 1.03x. At this point, Chan believes that it could signal an attractive opportunity to reposition into S-REITs for the eventual pause in the interest rate hikes and a possible decline in interest rates.

Despite his positive take on the sector, Chan is careful to note that he remains more selective, preferring REITs with a healthy balance sheet, strong sponsor and improving metrics such as the hospitality and retail sub-sector. “Catalysts are expected from pick-up in the economy and asset recycling,” he writes.

“However, we think it will remain challenging for S-REITs (apart from the hospitality sub-sector) to grow [their] distributions per unit (DPU) with higher borrowing costs and forex headwinds expected,” he adds.

Among the sub-sectors, Chan has indicated a preference for the hospitality and retail sub-sectors due to higher revenue per available room (RevPAR) and the gradual reopening of China. Furthermore, suburban retail offers resiliency in a downturn while downtown retail stands to benefit from the recovery of international visitor arrivals, which will in turn lift tenant sales and sentiment.

In his report dated Oct 16, Chan is “overweight” on the hospitality and retail sub-sectors and is “neutral” on the office and industrial sub-sectors.

Specific to individual REITs, the analyst’s top picks are CapitaLand Ascott Trust HMN 0.00% (CLAS) and Frasers Centrepoint Trust J69U 0.00% (FCT). He has given CLAS an “accumulate” call and target price of $1.20 while FCT, also at “accumulate”, has a target price of $2.35.

“CLAS’s share price has experienced a decline of [around] 10% from its preferential offering price of $1.025, which was undersubscribed at 64.7%, including excess rights. The joint lead managers, bookrunners and underwriters subscribed for the remaining portion that was not subscribed.

Together with the $200 million raised through the private placement at $1.043, gross proceeds of $303.1 million was raised from this equity fundraising – 56.1% of which will be used to fund the 1.8% distribution per unit (DPU) accretive acquisition of $530.8 million in assets,” says Chan.

“Considering CLAS’s share price’s post-issue performance in this weak market, we believe REITs will hold off any equity fund-raising plans in the foreseeable future, unless as a last resort to reduce leverage, or a highly promising acquisition opportunity arises,” he adds.

Units in CLAS and FCT closed at 88.5 cents and $2.11 on Oct 19.

 

[avviicc]

Parkwaylife REIT, CDL HTrust hit new 52 week low today. Dun think they are small as market cap is 1 , 2 billion.

CDL Htrust going to increase income due to increased in Hotel rate + traveller , more than enough to cover the increase in interest rate but still kana sold down. I got a feeling is short selling. Who the hell would want to sell down a counter that is going to announce good results.?

Very strange... why ppl dun want to sell at $1.07 recent high but want to anyhow throw low now at 96 cents ?everyone selling, no one buying when share price so low liao.

Then when share price goes back to $1.07 above, then everyone buying .. why dun buy now and prefer to buy at $1.07???

 

[sohguanh]

CDL Htrust going to increase income due to increased in Hotel rate + traveller , more than enough to cover the increase in interest rate but still kana sold down. I got a feeling is short selling. Who the hell would want to sell down a counter that is going to announce good results.?

I have post a few times REIT stock like normal SGX stock allow shorting and contra. These group of players have zero interest to hold the stock becuz they no monies hold. They trade the difference and to have good profits they need huge quantity.

In other forum some readers ask SGX to ban short sell. But if I am SGX why would I do that when I can earn fees from them? In a way they help to create huge volume aka huge fees to earn on the counter.

 

[avviicc]

I have post a few times REIT stock like normal SGX stock allow shorting and contra. These group of players have zero interest to hold the stock becuz they no monies hold. They trade the difference and to have good profits they need huge quantity.

In other forum some readers ask SGX to ban short sell. But if I am SGX why would I do that when I can earn fees from them? In a way they help to create huge volume aka huge fees to earn on the counter.

ya lo.. those shortist ppl early morning shorted .. very obvious.. they put a HUGE sell queue at 98 cents (1000 lots). Then they short at 97.5 cents to the buyers in the queue , anyhow sell. They just throw!!!.. then when share price dropped to 97 cents, they continue to short sell..

Then put a HUGE sell queue at 97.5 cents (1000+ lots).

Those small shareholders of CDL see liao panic, all dun care liao, anyhow selling , contra players or those investors who always like to sell low like Temasek. So in the end, the share price dropped and dropped.

Then u see some covering at 96.5 cents towards later part of afternoon. They earn 1-1.5 cents by shorting at 97.5-97 cents and buy back at 96-96.5 cents. But huge volume so they earn.

And stupid small investors kana their trap and anyhow throw ... faint..

The only way to beat these shortists if they encounter one investor/group who has enough capital to catch them on the wrong foot by buying up relentless until the shortist sai also come out then have to cover high price.

But in this market, where got such loaded investor/group to fight them?

 

[apriliasiao]

To my Mapletree and CapitaLand, I'm rdy to go all in. The more u drop, i more i buy. Not enough, I borrow. lol

 

[MrHighlander]

If S REITs still drop tmr, I will
Probably continue to load up on CLR

I prefer a REIT etf despite the expense ratio

 

[revhappy]

The funny thing is we still have a very healthy economy, full employment, full reopening etc. So boom times. High interest rates have not even made any impact on the consumers purchasing power and it will take a while for the rates increases to feed into the system with a lag.

Maybe last decade, it was all bad news is good news -> QE -> rates fall -> stocks rip.
Now, it is good news is bad news -> QT -> rates rise -> stocks crash.

 

[Senthil1179]

On the idea of REIT-ETF (like CLR) vs individual REITS.

Pros of ETF

1. You don't need to track the individual REITS
2. You get a basket portfolio
3. You don't need to take care of the Rights issue

Pros of buying Individual REIT

1. There is no expense ratio or Management fee
2. You can choose what you want in % allocation

There should be more to the pros & cons of each approach. But my question is this....

The CLR claims the expense ratio is 0.6%. And the management fees is 0.5%

What does this this translate to ? I am not expert in this - as to what is the difference between Expense ratio and Management fees. But let us add them together for simplicity - 1.1%. How does this impact our performance ?

1. Is my NAV effected by 1.1% i.e. if I buy individually the same basket, then I will be having asset which is 1.1% higher ? And cumulatively for 20 years, this will grow bigger.
2. From the distribution/yield perspective, what does this mean ? I am worried about it. Will this translate to a big reduction ? Or the expense & mgmt fees only goes in reduction of asset price, but the dividends from that asset flows thru directly to us ? I know it is a dumb question, but yes, I have a concern.

Personally, I like the ETF though , but I am wary of the fees.

 

[direbmem]

I think the expense ratio is inclusive of management fees.

 

[stanlawj]

​

PhillipCapital: S-REITs' current unit prices an 'attractive opportunity' to reposition for eventual interest rate pause​

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/ca...es-attractive-opportunity-reposition-eventual

"At their current unit price levels, S-REITs are trading at a forward dividend yield of 6.4% or 0.5 standard deviations (s.d.) above the mean of 6.1% and a P/NAV of 0.86x, 2.0 s.d. below the mean of 1.03x. At this point, Chan believes that it could signal an attractive opportunity to reposition into S-REITs for the eventual pause in the interest rate hikes and a possible decline in interest rates."


The last part in bold is where this analyst is just guessing ("possible"?).
The Treasury Yield curve is still inverted => https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/
Long duration end is what is killing REITS funded with long-term debt, and it has room to rise.

 

[sohguanh]

And stupid small investors kana their trap and anyhow throw ... faint..

The only way to beat these shortists if they encounter one investor/group who has enough capital to catch them on the wrong foot by buying up relentless until the shortist sai also come out then have to cover high price.

But in this market, where got such loaded investor/group to fight them?

Relax, this kind of shortist player play finish will go play other REIT stock. Think today Keppel REIT being played. Last time in an old forum got some readers admit to be shortist and he says not all shortist is successful becuz for every successful trade there is a corresponding failed trade so tally up one month he may not even earn a lot hence he later return to work for other boss as paid employee. There are of cuz successful shortist but they should belong to the minority than majority reason being if it is so easy to master this skill why need to work for boss as a paid employee correct? Can treat it like your full-time job every trading day go short stock to earn monies.

So for majority I think either work as paid employee with stock as investing for side income or really be your own boss open company do business. Trying to treat the stock market as your rice bowl is not for everyone obviously.

 

[homer123]

I find those bluchip reits from mapletree, capland, keppel YTD are dropping more than 2nd liners like AIM, ESR, Paragon, Cromwell after this week...

 

[DevilPlate]

I find those bluchip reits from mapletree, capland, keppel YTD are dropping more than 2nd liners like AIM, ESR, Paragon, Cromwell after this week...

Sampan reits already drop alot mah.

probably resume dropping after blue chip reits drop…