General S-REITs Discussion Thread

[weng0202]

The great sg reit sale is here, are you ready?

 

[revhappy]

DW dividends on track to increase to $40k this year. However his capital gains decreased by about same amount or more. Used to be about + 200k++ about 6 mths ago, now about +150-170k++. But if he hold 2 more years, when REITs rebound when rates peaked or decrease, it will be the mother of all rebounds (in Adam Khoo's words lol).

His portfolio size is about 700k. So about 6% yield. We are not going back to QE era interest rates again, unless then is a major recession. So I think REITs are just fairly priced given the current interest rate environment.

I always found it funny that REIT investors do 1st order analysis, 'vivocity good footfall, so buy MCT'. I always believe in efficient market hypothesis, which means, everything which I know, everyone else also knows. So it is all priced it. It is not like I am the only smart person who can see Vivocity has good footfall, there are PhD fund managers, super computers which can calculate the same thing much faster and better than me. Unless I know some insider information, everything is priced in and only if there is an upside surprise I make money above the risk free rate. If there is a downside surprise I lose money.

 

[MrHighlander]

His portfolio size is about 700k. So about 6% yield. We are not going back to QE era interest rates again, unless then is a major recession. So I think REITs are just fairly priced given the current interest rate environment.

I always found it funny that REIT investors do 1st order analysis, 'vivocity good footfall, so buy MCT'. I always believe in efficient market hypothesis, which means, everything which I know, everyone else also knows. So it is all priced it. It is not like I am the only smart person who can see Vivocity has good footfall, there are PhD fund managers, super computers which can calculate the same thing much faster and better than me. Unless I know some insider information, everything is priced in and only if there is an upside surprise I make money above the risk free rate. If there is a downside surprise I lose money.

I will buy more CLR if it continues to fall

today just bought a small 6K thereabouts

 

[limster]

even though this is a REIT thread, I'm going to say that we should be very careful about betting against MSCI World. As prices fall, buy some REIT, buy some MSCI world, don't all-in REITS.

I did another round of DCA of Capitaland Ascott, VWRD, and LSPU today.

 

[DevilPlate]

His portfolio size is about 700k. So about 6% yield. We are not going back to QE era interest rates again, unless then is a major recession. So I think REITs are just fairly priced given the current interest rate environment.

I always found it funny that REIT investors do 1st order analysis, 'vivocity good footfall, so buy MCT'. I always believe in efficient market hypothesis, which means, everything which I know, everyone else also knows. So it is all priced it. It is not like I am the only smart person who can see Vivocity has good footfall, there are PhD fund managers, super computers which can calculate the same thing much faster and better than me. Unless I know some insider information, everything is priced in and only if there is an upside surprise I make money above the risk free rate. If there is a downside surprise I lose money.

No leh...those overseas reits listed here mostly to "scam" our sinkie monies since we do not know whats going on there. LOL

 

[DevilPlate]

The great sg reit sale is here, are you ready?

Have been on sale since Last Sept/Oct liao

See who got enough bullets & faith to keep DCA

 

[TehSi99]

Rotational play and BBs are moving out of Reits?

 

[direbmem]

His portfolio size is about 700k. So about 6% yield. We are not going back to QE era interest rates again, unless then is a major recession. So I think REITs are just fairly priced given the current interest rate environment.

Yes, think it was almost 750-800k+ a while back..
Yes, REITs are fairly priced now at current interest, and will adjust to its fair price again when interest rates lower.

 

[TehSi99]

S-REITs' current unit prices an 'attractive opportunity' to reposition for eventual interest rate pause: PhillipCapital​

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/ca...es-attractive-opportunity-reposition-eventual

PhillipCapital analyst Darren Chan is keeping his “overweight” rating on Singapore REITs (S-REITs) with the S-REIT Index down by 3.2% m-o-m. The bulk of losses came during the last two weeks after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held interest rates unchanged and indicated that rates will likely remain higher for longer.

At their current unit price levels, S-REITs are trading at a forward dividend yield of 6.4% or 0.5 standard deviations (s.d.) above the mean of 6.1% and a P/NAV of 0.86x, 2.0 s.d. below the mean of 1.03x. At this point, Chan believes that it could signal an attractive opportunity to reposition into S-REITs for the eventual pause in the interest rate hikes and a possible decline in interest rates.

Despite his positive take on the sector, Chan is careful to note that he remains more selective, preferring REITs with a healthy balance sheet, strong sponsor and improving metrics such as the hospitality and retail sub-sector. “Catalysts are expected from pick-up in the economy and asset recycling,” he writes.

“However, we think it will remain challenging for S-REITs (apart from the hospitality sub-sector) to grow [their] distributions per unit (DPU) with higher borrowing costs and forex headwinds expected,” he adds.

Among the sub-sectors, Chan has indicated a preference for the hospitality and retail sub-sectors due to higher revenue per available room (RevPAR) and the gradual reopening of China. Furthermore, suburban retail offers resiliency in a downturn while downtown retail stands to benefit from the recovery of international visitor arrivals, which will in turn lift tenant sales and sentiment.

In his report dated Oct 16, Chan is “overweight” on the hospitality and retail sub-sectors and is “neutral” on the office and industrial sub-sectors.

Specific to individual REITs, the analyst’s top picks are CapitaLand Ascott Trust HMN 0.00% (CLAS) and Frasers Centrepoint Trust J69U 0.00% (FCT). He has given CLAS an “accumulate” call and target price of $1.20 while FCT, also at “accumulate”, has a target price of $2.35.

“CLAS’s share price has experienced a decline of [around] 10% from its preferential offering price of $1.025, which was undersubscribed at 64.7%, including excess rights. The joint lead managers, bookrunners and underwriters subscribed for the remaining portion that was not subscribed.

Together with the $200 million raised through the private placement at $1.043, gross proceeds of $303.1 million was raised from this equity fundraising – 56.1% of which will be used to fund the 1.8% distribution per unit (DPU) accretive acquisition of $530.8 million in assets,” says Chan.

“Considering CLAS’s share price’s post-issue performance in this weak market, we believe REITs will hold off any equity fund-raising plans in the foreseeable future, unless as a last resort to reduce leverage, or a highly promising acquisition opportunity arises,” he adds.

Units in CLAS and FCT closed at 88.5 cents and $2.11 on Oct 19.

Every time price dropped, reports shouting BUY, OPPORTUNITY.... just for us to find out prices dropped further few months later.

 

[direbmem]

Every time price dropped, reports shouting BUY, OPPORTUNITY.... just for us to find out prices dropped further few months later.

Yeah I have impression seeing such buying opportunity headlines quite a few times lol

 

[churnmaster]

Yeah I have impression seeing such buying opportunity headlines quite a few times lol

They actually meant “Bye Bye” to all those who boarded the ship (boat)

 

[TehSi99]

Yeah I have impression seeing such buying opportunity headlines quite a few times lol

Mt reits in red for last 2 years. Not putting in any more money. Looking for other opportunities.

 

[lunafan]

Mt reits in red for last 2 years. Not putting in any more money. Looking for other opportunities.

After factoring in the dividend for last 2yrs, still in the red?
My reits buying price vs current price, in the red but after factoring in dividend over the years, broke even. Now is the opportunity to buy and lower my avg price as I got nothing to lose

 

[sohguanh]

After factoring in the dividend for last 2yrs, still in the red?
My reits buying price vs current price, in the red but after factoring in dividend over the years, broke even. Now is the opportunity to buy and lower my avg price as I got nothing to lose

Over the years is how many years? From the year REIT IPO till now 2023?

 

[lunafan]

Over the years is how many years? From the year REIT IPO till now 2023?

Forgot to state, I also started reits around 2yr+ ago

 

[sohguanh]

Forgot to state, I also started reits around 2yr+ ago

Thanks for sharing. If you have faith in the REIT story now is time to get some. I have mine REIT some in their IPO in 2000s till now confirm green colour after factor in dividends collected over the years. Just be careful REIT can get delisted. If you scared get those blue chip with market cap billions.

 

[lunafan]

Thanks for sharing. If you have faith in the REIT story now is time to get some. I have mine REIT some in their IPO in 2000s till now confirm green colour after factor in dividends collected over the years. Just be careful REIT can get delisted. If you scared get those blue chip with market cap billions.

Yes, i only go for reits with solid sponsor, history of increasing dpu and are consistently in the top 10 holdings of various reit etf. So far so good….

 

[zeroX26]

I can’t imagine SREITs will get butchered like this

dividends warrior must be under the bus with China Tech and SREITs both in dire straits

He got buy China Tech meh?

 

[stanlawj]

I can’t imagine SREITs will get butchered like this

dividends warrior must be under the bus with China Tech and SREITs both in dire straits

Your perspective is to get rich quick.

Drawdowns like this come with part of his strategy. If you are not forced to liquidate, then when the cycle turns up 3 years later, the drawdowns will be recovered in a few more years.

That's why dividend investing is getting rich slow and steady. Same with all the property tycoons. They can't just sell all their multi-billion dollar property portfolio every recession and then try to buy back everything at the start of recovery. They have to hold through the recession. At most is do some minor adjustment.

If you want a faster boat, you may need a different strategy like Chicken Genius' way. But the faster the boat, the more dangerous the boat is, the easier to crash & die early.

 

[churnmaster]

I can’t imagine SREITs will get butchered like this

dividends warrior must be under the bus with China Tech and SREITs both in dire straits

He has about 150K unrealized gains on an investment of 550K and has earned 275K as dividends over the years. I would assume the 550K includes a portion of the 275K he earned thru dividends. Rest of the dividends have been utilized for some other purposes.

So even if the holdings go down by 20% from the current level, he’ll be in the money. He’s a long term investor and knows what he’s doing and hence should do well.

In fact there’ll be others who’d be more worried about their REITs investment before him.