General S-REITs Discussion Thread

[60Remajust]

analyst in SG mostly say BUY BUY BUY, even as REITs continued to crash....

not sure if spend money on fengshui master or analyst is more wasteful

 

[sky1978]

not sure if spend money on fengshui master or analyst is more wasteful

There are a lot of free reports out there, though the second link has a lot of ads.

https://www.sgx.com/research-education/analyst-research?page=1&pagesize=100
https://sginvestors.io/sgx/reit-listing/alpha

If you are buying hoping that the price will hit those price targets, then it is probably a waste of time (to read), even when the reports are FOC. If you are looking for the projected DPU to get some forecast yield, the average of a few reports probably won't be that far off, and you can compare their past reports to the actual results to get a feel for the accuracy. REIT income is not that difficult to forecast unless they throw out some surprises.

 

[DevilPlate]

There are a lot of free reports out there, though the second link has a lot of ads.

https://www.sgx.com/research-education/analyst-research?page=1&pagesize=100
https://sginvestors.io/sgx/reit-listing/alpha

If you are buying hoping that the price will hit those price targets, then it is probably a waste of time (to read), even when the reports are FOC. If you are looking for the projected DPU to get some forecast yield, the average of a few reports probably won't be that far off, and you can compare their past reports to the actual results to get a feel for the accuracy. REIT income is not that difficult to forecast unless they throw out some surprises.

Their target price is most likely assuming a soft landing and near zero interest rate environment

 

[sky1978]

Their target price is most likely assuming a soft landing and near zero interest rate environment

In some detailed reports, many price targets are based on historical yield spread over the 10-year SG govt yield. Different asset classes like industrial, retail and office have their own average spread and then geographical differences will also impact this spread. If we worked backwards to get the DPU on those REITs listed on Macquaires' table and assuming their DPU forecast is correct, the resulting yield will hover around the 5% range after hitting the target price. Comparing that to the current 10-year govt yield at 2.8%, the spread is between 2% to 2.5% for most REITs inside that table, but the market may or may not agree with this spread level.

 

[limster]

and you can compare their past reports to the actual results to get a feel for the accuracy.

if you do this you'll realise they are pretty inaccurate

 

[60Remajust]

In some detailed reports, many price targets are based on historical yield spread over the 10-year SG govt yield. Different asset classes like industrial, retail and office have their own average spread and then geographical differences will also impact this spread. If we worked backwards to get the DPU on those REITs listed on Macquaires' table and assuming their DPU forecast is correct, the resulting yield will hover around the 5% range after hitting the target price. Comparing that to the current 10-year govt yield at 2.8%, the spread is between 2% to 2.5% for most REITs inside that table, but the market may or may not agree with this spread level.

are u in this line by any chance? first time i ever hear of anyone defending them lol

i spoke to the big boss of a major brokerage firm some years back and even he cannot understand why he spends so much money on the analysts.

 

[limster]

are u in this line by any chance? first time i ever hear of anyone defending them lol

i spoke to the big boss of a major brokerage firm some years back and even he cannot understand why he spends so much money on the analysts.

There are quite a few website with AI written analyst report, that's probably the future for 'free reports' which are more like advertising.

Before AI, I would say they can hire students to write analyst report to save money. Some of the contributors to seeking alpha are actually still in High School.....

In some detailed reports, many price targets are based on historical yield spread over the 10-year SG govt yield. Different asset classes like industrial, retail and office have their own average spread and then geographical differences will also impact this spread. If we worked backwards to get the DPU on those REITs listed on Macquaires' table and assuming their DPU forecast is correct, the resulting yield will hover around the 5% range after hitting the target price. Comparing that to the current 10-year govt yield at 2.8%, the spread is between 2% to 2.5% for most REITs inside that table, but the market may or may not agree with this spread level.

This sort of method to calculate target price, an AI Bot can do easily, no need human analyst.

 

[sky1978]

are u in this line by any chance? first time i ever hear of anyone defending them lol

i spoke to the big boss of a major brokerage firm some years back and even he cannot understand why he spends so much money on the analysts.

Nope, I am not in that line, but I do use their reports as long as they are FOC.

Unless we want to buy something blindly, else there aren't that many options
1. Do the forecasting yourself
2. Go find some video or blogger who spends probably just a few hours doing their homework
3. Find some research reports to read, usually different analysts would have different values, and the DPU normally falls within the low and the high estimates.

If you understand the nature of the different REITs, some are inherently easier to forecast which means the chances of negative variances are lower. Those big blue-chip REITs with minimal foreign assets usually stand a higher chance of being accurate. You can go to the SGX free portal and pick a few that are about a year apart under the same brokerage/bank and see for yourself, many are quite accurate in terms of DPU but not the price target, so it depends on what you are seeking from those reports.

For brokerage firms, research always costs centre to them because they hardly bring in any revenue, But, they are plenty of users relying on such reports. Many investment managers out there even paid for research subscriptions. We as individuals can probably buy as and when we like, those investment managers will have to justify their investment decision either through their own research or someone else, otherwise, they would have failed in their duty of care to their client.

 

[sky1978]

This sort of method to calculate target price, an AI Bot can do easily, no need human analyst.

Assuming they already had the DPU, then it is quite easy. But can they derive a DPU estimate and consolidate all the information from investors' or analyst briefings? Maybe not.

In future, maybe they will bring the AI to attend such briefings and the AI could simply feed the numbers into the financial model or even improvise them. By then, many jobs would have been made redundant. But, in the near future, human supervision is probably still required even if they want to rely on AI.

 

[stanlawj]

UST 10yr 30yr yields continue to fall tonight!
Ok, now, SREITS, show me you can RISE!!

not sure if spend money on fengshui master or analyst is more wasteful

I've already checked the last 3 SREITS crashes are due to UST long duration bond yields spike up.

 

[stanlawj]

BUY BUY BUY!!

Current higher yields on Singapore Savings Bonds and Treasury bills unlikely to last: analysts​

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/co...nds-and-treasury-bills-unlikely-last-analysts

Gabriel Yap, a veteran Reit investor and chairman of GCP Global, noted that S-Reits are also trading at a low, as the market priced in higher fiscal budget deficits. However, he pointed out that most of the well-diversified, well-managed Reits are still trading above a dividend yield of 6.4 per cent, which has historically delivered 12-month returns of 11.9 percent. "I believe that it is time to get back to S-Reits at their lows," he said.

 

[Tiny Shrimp]

BUY BUY BUY!!

Current higher yields on Singapore Savings Bonds and Treasury bills unlikely to last: analysts​

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/co...nds-and-treasury-bills-unlikely-last-analysts

Gabriel Yap, a veteran Reit investor and chairman of GCP Global, noted that S-Reits are also trading at a low, as the market priced in higher fiscal budget deficits. However, he pointed out that most of the well-diversified, well-managed Reits are still trading above a dividend yield of 6.4 per cent, which has historically delivered 12-month returns of 11.9 percent. "I believe that it is time to get back to S-Reits at their lows," he said.

positive indicator ah....

 

[TehSi99]

UST 10yr 30yr yields continue to fall tonight!
Ok, now, SREITS, show me you can RISE!!


I've already checked the last 3 SREITS crashes are due to UST long duration bond yields spike up.

UST seems to be continuing up.

 

[TehSi99]

Using POEMS. Sometimes can see from the trade history, there are trades with 1 share.
Someone trying to trick others from buying/ selling from last trade price?

 

[60Remajust]

vol for the etfs seem to be good this morning

 

[TehSi99]

vol for the etfs seem to be good this morning

Queuing for CFA using CPF for long term.

 

[stanlawj]

CFA is melting up slowly. Both Link REITS and CICT are also inching up.

 

[DriftKing]

CFA is melting up slowly. Both Link REITS and CICT are also inching up.

No jinx, immediately fall back to 1.96

 

[highsulphur]

Don't need to rally too soon. Let me buy more first

 

[stanlawj]

MPACT is moving in the wrong direction! Funny REITS.
No reason for this behaviour.