Kuudere
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https://www.threads.com/@sagecanaday/post/DEN9YawRXyJ?hl=enInteresting...... in 2023 only 8 "amateurs" broke 3 for men in SG (these include ex SEA games fellas or TEAM Singapore / subset Singapore Athletics)....discounting those local record holders like SRY or Benjamin Khoo who probably have very good genetics and excellent background etc.
For 2023/2024, no women broke 3 in SG. A few came very close tho.
edit - basically same story for 2022
Or if we take 2:45 overseas as the standard in which you pretty much can be confident that you have a very good shot in breaking 3 locally.
Edit - not a pro, i just eyepower some PB examples, it might even be closer to 20 mins / 2:40 overseas
So breaking 3 in SG for hobbyists like us with no serious background other than just following some plans and having good consistency seems like it's quite the barrier / bragging rights in the local context where you need to juggle family and career or at least your sian day job.
And when some might finally be able to retire early and have loads of time to pursue these endurance hobbies (eg lets just take age 55), it's nearly impossible by then.
Or if you age 40 kena Toto grp 1 then power lah dey.
And of coz, if you are just basing it off 1 single certified race per year ie SCSM , then lagi forget it...... by sheer probability alone you are already down that much. Anything screw up like it rains or nutritional absorption screw up or wanna cramp but it's still not full blown type, it's bye bye unless you have trained much and have lots of buffer.
Sage coached many people over the years and he recommended 85-100k/week of mileage, for a shot at breaking sub-3 overseas. 100-130k/week to gun for 2:40s, at which point should be realistic volume to go for sub-3 marathon in Sg.
So far, I only know two friends in my running circles that average 85-100k/week and both don't have family commitments (single by choice) and have solid work-life balance. One of them owns his business so have flexible schedule to run.
Apart from this, whether you get into injury and hamper your training performance is another matter altogether. The friend who owned business ran 30k (sg weather) in 4:15-4:16 min/km pace and was gunning for sub 3-hour marathon this year until he encountered an injury which set him back to running 3 times a week.
There are of course, some local runners that have fantastic marathon PR that don't run competitively in Sg. Know of 1 guy - Derek Li, ran 2:39 marathon and 1:14 HM overseas. Given the weather in Sg, it's not too surprising really.