MapleTree NAC Trust

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lzydata

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hoks

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Howcome market price can b 1.22 when the offer is 1.19?
 
LongXia

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I post this in another forum but I thought my point is quite good, so I thought I post here also...

Yes you are right... I was talking about the more definite payout of FY dpu which should be around 3.5 cents and the current price reflects that ($1.194 +$0.035 = $1.23). The cleanup gain is subjective but for discussion sake, we can take the lower end of 2 cents which will end up about total pre-delist payout of $0.055.

which brings to my next point... if you are selling MNACT now and buy into MCT now, you have to be careful with your sum, if you wish to stay vested in the MCTscheme. If you sell MNACT and take profits and quit totally then it's a different matter.

because when you sell. MNACT, to go long on MCT, you are actually forgoing $0.055 predelist gains, meaning you are actually selling MNACT at below scheme offer price of $1.1949. And 5.5 cents gain could give you a 3 cents discount on MCT, or put it another way, if you sell today at $1.22, you may think you actually gain 2.5 cents over scheme offer price of $1.195. But that 2.5 cents gain after deducting brokerage fees can buy you only the most 1.1 cent of MCT. ( I m taking 10,000 shares as the base)

So, the best is to hope that MCT will appreciate greatly in value, on paper at least. But then again if it's is going to aprreaciate greatly in value, say to $2.10/$2.20, you might as well don't sell that MNACT shares in the first place and buy into MCT, waste paying brokerage fees on both sides, and missing the pre delist payouts......

headache...
 
LongXia

LongXia

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hoks said:
Howcome market price can b 1.22 when the offer is 1.19?
Click to expand...
People buy for various reasons, but always remember market is alive and always alert...
I can simply put people who buy this one basically as follows....

1. you would know once upon a time, MNACT is the darling among the REITs before the stupid student riots, and prices would hover around $1.30 to $1.50, because of the hype, many would have bought. If they have not cut loss, they would buy now to average down, because looking at the revised scheme, likely merger will go through, thus taking away some uncertainty.
2. the scheme is likely to compete in august, so we would have one round of FY dpu to go, chow chow around 3.5 cents, plus a cleanup prelist payout, and although this is subjective, I can confidently put it as 2 cents because it is almost close to half yearly results. So total 5.5 cents. So people who are going long on MCT via this MNACT route, would buy into this now, because after deducting the prelisting gains, they still gain....!!
3. with MI now offering a cash only option of $1.1949, it effectively guarantees that MNACT price will not fall below $1.195.... which in fact as I pointed out, it now looks like a de facto takeover offer. Means no body will sell their MNACT at below this price! So if you cannot buy at this price, you can only buy higher, and with MI song pah to subscribe to all the PO price of $2.009, if there are no takers, it also gives market confidence that the MCT will definitely go above this price eventually. So people who believe in this will go for number 2 in the hope of gaining number 3.
4. And of course as in all takeover scenaril, there are always some adventurous people who take position in the hope that there may be a better offer later. So if the price is not overtly price, why not hedge on some. No risks no gain.

one last point, if MNACT remains at this trading range, it’s a matter of time MCT, will take its rightful position of $2.009..... one, in case of arbitrage trading, two, it is the interests of MI and the insiders to see as many shareholders as possible take up it’s all scrips scheme or option. To ensue this to happen, it really needs the help of the black market people and his crounds to do the needful....

PDYODD!!!
 
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sleepingcat

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bought MNACT at 0.95...
not sure which option to go for?
MNACT is the only singapore stock i own which give attractive dividend... if convert to cash the money will just sit in my bank acct
 
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TehSi99

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sleepingcat said:
bought MNACT at 0.95...
not sure which option to go for?
MNACT is the only singapore stock i own which give attractive dividend... if convert to cash the money will just sit in my bank acct
Click to expand...

You already answered yourself.
 
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Andrew833

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sleepingcat said:
bought MNACT at 0.95...
not sure which option to go for?
MNACT is the only singapore stock i own which give attractive dividend... if convert to cash the money will just sit in my bank acct
Click to expand...
1) take the profit and buy MCT
2) continue to hold, may be delisted convert to MCT shares/ cash
Its your money you decide.
(I take profit with over 20% profit and buy some MCT)
 
LongXia

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As I already suggested....

hold on MNACT shares if you are interested in going long on MCT because
there’s the dpu and cleanup gains of prelist MNACT to look forward to.
any price below $1.23, you are actually selling below scheme cash offer of $1.1949 plus you have to foot out brokerage fees. Then get the MCT shares which will likely rise to above $2 by the time merger is effected.

even you don’t want to have MCT, take the dpu plus prelist cleanup payout, which I estimate to be chow chow 5.5 cents. Then after that when the merger is effected, take the all cash option offer of $1.1949.... you don’t have to pay a single brokerage fee on it.
 
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lzydata

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LongXia

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LongXia said:
I post this in another forum but I thought my point is quite good, so I thought I post here also...

Yes you are right... I was talking about the more definite payout of FY dpu which should be around 3.5 cents and the current price reflects that ($1.194 +$0.035 = $1.23). The cleanup gain is subjective but for discussion sake, we can take the lower end of 2 cents which will end up about total pre-delist payout of $0.055.

which brings to my next point... if you are selling MNACT now and buy into MCT now, you have to be careful with your sum, if you wish to stay vested in the MCTscheme. If you sell MNACT and take profits and quit totally then it's a different matter.

because when you sell. MNACT, to go long on MCT, you are actually forgoing $0.055 predelist gains, meaning you are actually selling MNACT at below scheme offer price of $1.1949. And 5.5 cents gain could give you a 3 cents discount on MCT, or put it another way, if you sell today at $1.22, you may think you actually gain 2.5 cents over scheme offer price of $1.195. But that 2.5 cents gain after deducting brokerage fees can buy you only the most 1.1 cent of MCT. ( I m taking 10,000 shares as the base)

So, the best is to hope that MCT will appreciate greatly in value, on paper at least. But then again if it's is going to aprreaciate greatly in value, say to $2.10/$2.20, you might as well don't sell that MNACT shares in the first place and buy into MCT, waste paying brokerage fees on both sides, and missing the pre delist payouts......

headache...
Click to expand...
$0.3393 dpu.... plus the clean up distribution should be very close to my estimate of premerger payouts of 5.5 cents. So if you want to sell, take not of this....
 
Shion

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Analysts downgrade MNACT to 'hold' as current share price reaches cash offer price​


https://www.theedgesingapore.com/ca...-current-share-price-reaches-cash-offer-price
Analysts from CGS-CIMB Research and Citi Research have downgraded their recommendations on Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MNACT) after the REIT’s unit price surpassed the offer price of $1.1949 from Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT).

Units in MNACT have been trading from $1.22 to $1.23 since the manager of MCT announced that it would give MNACT unitholders another option to receive the consideration of $1.1949 in full cash.

CGS-CIMB analysts Lock Mun Yee and Eing Kar Mei have lowered their call to “hold” from “add” with an unchanged target price of $1.13.

“We believe near-term share price upside could be capped by the consideration price,” the analysts write in their report dated April 20.

While MNACT’s results for the FY2022 ended March stood in line with the analysts’ expectations at 98.9% of their full-year forecast, Lock and Eing are lowering their distribution per unit (DPU) estimates for the FY2023 to FY2024 by 1.45% to 1.5%.

Noting the weaker performance at Gateway Plaza in Beijing, the analysts say they see the weak outlook likely to continue to drag on upcoming lease renewals with ample incoming supply.

The REIT currently has 5.1% of its portfolio rental income expiring at Gateway Plaza in FY2023.

To them, a faster-than-expected recovery in the performance of Festival Walk is a catalyst to MNACT’s unit price, whereas a slower-than-expected recovery at Festival Walk and Gateway Plaza is a downside risk.

Citi Research analyst Ken Yeung has also downgraded his call on MNACT to “neutral” even though MNACT posted a strong set of figures for the FY2022.

The REIT’s full-year DPU of 6.819 cents stood 2.7% higher than his estimate of 6.8 cents.

Yeung has also upped his target price estimate on the REIT to $1.195 from $1.14 previously.

“We believe MNACT is on a steady recovery trend on a better outlook post the Hong Kong Covid-19 situation coming under control with social distancing measures gradually to be relaxed post April 21,” Yeung writes in his report dated April 20.

“We expect MNACT’s merger is likely to succeed after the cash-only offer, and hence we now set our target price at the offer price of S$1.195 per share,” he adds.

However, he sees limited upside to the counter as MNACT’s unit price has already reached its offer price from MCT.

As at 10.54am, units in MNACT are trading 1 cent lower or 0.81% down at $1.22.
 
LongXia

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Very funny .... analysing a stock that is going to merge and then giving s TP below scheme offer price, and even worse, lower than current market price
 
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lzydata

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Not sure how it can even trade at $1.21 now that the merger is confirmed. People think the scheme will not pass and somehow they can get a higher price? What gives.
 
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