by ocbc research
KEY IDEA
Telecoms Sector: Maintain OVERWEIGHT in uncertain times
For 2016, we believe that the telcos will stand out in an increasingly uncertain market, given their defensive business, strong cash-flow generating abilities and relatively attractive yields. Hence, we maintain our OVERWEIGHT on the sector. We currently have BUYs on all the three telcos; but M1 stands out in terms of highest expected total return, and could see the strongest share price recovery if concerns of a new telco prove to be unfounded. (Carey Wong)
M1: Offers highest yield among peers
M1 is the worst performer among the telco stocks so far in 2015, down some 20.2% YTD; besides concerns over rising interest rates, we believe that the growing talks of the emergence of a fourth telco in Singapore could also be weighing on sentiment. Having said that, we note that the company’s outlook for 2015 still happens to be the most optimistic among its peers. And in line with the sharp correction in its share price, M1’s forecasted dividend yield has risen from as low as 3.5% at the beginning of the year to about 6.5% currently, which we believe should more than adequately mitigate any spike in interest rates here. Hence, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock with an unchanged S$3.66 fair value. We also note that M1 offers the highest total expected return of nearly 34%; and its share price could rise strongly if the fears of a new telco are unfounded. (Carey Wong)
CAPITALAND MALL TRUST | BUY
A GOOD BLUE CHIP NAME TO BUY
- Price corrected post our downgrade
- FY16F yield close to 2 SD above 5-year mean
- Expect stable DPU growth
Following CapitaLand Mall Trust’s (CMT) recent share price pull-back, we believe its risk-reward is now compelling, from both a distribution yield and P/B perspective. We thus upgrade CMT from ‘Hold’ to BUY, with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$2.09. We like CMT’s constant efforts to enhance the value of its portfolio and seeking opportunities to unlock its asset value, such as the possible redevelopment or disposal of Funan DigitaLife Mall. While we are cognisant of challenges facing retail landlords, we expect CMT to continue delivering stable growth to its unitholders. We forecast DPU growth to come in at 2.3% and 2.5% for FY15 and FY16, respectively, partly driven by contribution from its recent Bedok Mall acquisition.