*Official* MasterLeong Thread - Part 2

[MasterLeong]

ML, good price to eat 2 piece combo today?

1.94 1.52 ok to board if u want long term dividends

 

[MasterLeong]

Job market still looking pathetic...

you never been through 2007-08

no job, less jobs still fine

when you see bodies flying off hdb flats then you scared for sure

 

[MasterLeong]

CDG 2.40 support looks to be holding well

1 more week to results

 

[JuzMobile]

Darn.... tempted to unload my AIMS.
been performing quite well this past few days.

 

[MasterLeong]

hoot comfortdelgro this morning... huat ah!

Sent from Redmi 2 Enhanced using GAGT

welcome on board mate, hope CDG can go to $3 by year end ^_^

next friday results, hope earnings flat or up slightly

 

[lbs]

is FLT risky? nobody knows... isn't this newly listed?

 

[MasterLeong]

KEY IDEA


Oil & Gas sector: Interest is returning



Ever since OPEC announced that it will cut production – the first time in eight years – in late Nov last year, oil prices have increased from the mid $40s to the mid $50s currently, and investors keen to gain exposure to oil plays have generally focused on the large caps like Keppel Corp (+16%), Sembcorp Industries (+19%), Sembcorp Marine (+9%) and mid-sized Ezion Holdings (+20%), possibly due to concerns that some smaller companies would face greater financial difficulties under the tough environment. Despite some returning interest in the sector in fear of losing out during an oil price rally, we also get the sense that investors in general are still cautious about entering the sector in a big way, due to conservative company guidance and the continued flow of some negative news. Looking ahead, investors are advised to be nimble amidst the uncertainties, but those with a longer-term horizon could consider accumulating on dips our preferred pick, Sembcorp Industries [BUY, FV: S$3.36].

 

[JuzMobile]

you never been through 2007-08

no job, less jobs still fine

when you see bodies flying off hdb flats then you scared for sure

Of course scared la.
Not because economy bad or no jobs. But because i relac relac walk around my estate, can see flying bodies everywhere. Horror show in the making sia..

 

[MasterLeong]

Darn.... tempted to unload my AIMS.
been performing quite well this past few days.

when the results out?

I saw their last Q presentation, numbers were very bad

rental reversion negative 10%

from this year june onwards they got 30% lease to renew... most likely at lower rates

i think AA reit will see lower DPU in the 12-24 months to come

just my view, i may be wrong

i not vested and I will not buy even if it drops

 

[MasterLeong]

is FLT risky? nobody knows... isn't this newly listed?

among reits its one of the higher risk one

1) all overseas aussie assets
2) new ipo... do not have 5 nor 10 year track record as compared to Areit
3) sponsor has a lot of assets to dump into FLT, may see rights issue in 1-2 years time

 

[MasterLeong]

for new investors who die die want an industrial reit

take A reit first... then FLT later.......

 

[zzxiaoboizz]

Assessing the impact of ezra grp

Ezra or its associated companies could face liquidation
●   Ezra has called for a trading halt on 1 Feb pending the release of an announcement. We believe this is related to the results of its discussions with lenders and other stakeholders regarding its financial position, which could result in the group, its JV or subsidiaries’ liquidation in the worst case scenario.
●   As of 31 Aug 2016, the group had US$989m of term loans and bills payable to banks, including US$568m from 75.46%-owned EMAS Offshore Limited and US$150m from 60.9%-owned Triyards Holdings Limited.

Impairment at EMAS Chiyoda Subsea
●   Ezra’s JV partners in its subsea business, EMAS Chiyoda Subsea Limited, recently wrote down their stakes in the JV. Chiyoda Corp took a ¥38bn impairment charge for its 35% stake, while NYK Line took a ¥13bn impairment on its 25% stake.
●   After netting off their share of goodwill, we estimate that the two JV partners wrote down 25-74% of fixed asset value. With estimated bank debt of US$579m, its fixed assets can be written down by 43% before recoverability comes into question.

Quantifying lending exposures to the Ezra group
●   As the banks do not disclose their lending exposures to individual clients, we adopt an arbitrary approach and assume each company’s debt is equally split among its principal bankers as listed in its annual report.
●   Based on this assumption, we estimate that DBS has the largest exposure to the Ezra group of companies at S$637m, followed by OCBC at S$300m and UOB at S$166m. DBS’s larger exposure is mainly due to its lending to EMAS Chiyoda Subsea, given that it was the co-lead arranger for the loan facility for EMAS Chiyoda’s main vessel, the Lewek Constellation.

DBS would be hardest hit in event of liquidation
●   Should the entire Ezra group go into liquidation, the banks will have to recognise their exposures as NPLs and make adequate provisions for the unrecoverable amounts.
●   Based on 40-80% write-down in book value of fixed assets across the group, we estimate DBS will have to make specific provisions (SPs) of 8-16bp, OCBC: 9-12bp and UOB: 6-7bp. This assumes no SPs have been taken yet, and will impact DBS’s FY17F net profit by 6-12%, OCBC: 5-8%, and UOB: 4-5%.

Maintain sector Underweight
●   We remain Underweight on the Singapore banks, as asset quality concerns still loom. Despite higher oil prices and the introduction of new working capital loans by SPRING Singapore, the banks’ exposure to oil & gas firms still remain under stress as E&P spending has yet to return. We are also watchful of the banks’ exposure to the SME sector and trading firms that could be hurt by the stronger US dollar.
●   We are less optimistic than consensus on the banks’ NIM outlook in 2017, as weak loan demand could put pressure on customer loan yields. Recent US$ weakness also supports our more bearish expectation of SIBOR/SOR. OCBC remains our top sell. Risks to our call include higher interest rates and stronger GDP growth.
   

Sent from Samsung SM-N910G using GAGT

 

[MasterLeong]

seems like a lot interested in FLT

today i will read again their ipo sheet and give my views here

http://investor.fraserslogisticstrust.com/misc/ipo.pdf

 

[MasterLeong]

somemore ezra did rights issue at 10 cents, now going to 0 cents

lesson here is do not throw good money into bad money

noble also did rights issue at 10 cents, it may go to 0 cents if it continues to make losses

NEVER PUT MORE MONEY INTO A SINKING SHIP

a company making LOSSES is always a BIG RED FLAG

 

[Shion]

looking for job? Got lobang?

Sent from Sony E6853 using GAGT

I am still looking. No lobang.

you never been through 2007-08

no job, less jobs still fine

when you see bodies flying off hdb flats then you scared for sure

 

[Shion]

somemore ezra did rights issue at 10 cents, now going to 0 cents

lesson here is do not throw good money into bad money

noble also did rights issue at 10 cents, it may go to 0 cents if it continues to make losses

NEVER PUT MORE MONEY INTO A SINKING SHIP

a company making LOSSES is always a BIG RED FLAG

May be to avoid those that keep on having rights issue

 

[MasterLeong]

https://www.investingnote.com/users/zoexanong#/?display=profile&user=zoexanong&tab=posts

chio bu spotted

 

[MasterLeong]

I am still looking. No lobang.

u jobless how long?

what u worked as?

maybe i can intro u

 

[JuzMobile]

Assessing the impact of ezra grp

Ezra or its associated companies could face liquidation
● * Ezra has called for a trading halt on 1 Feb pending the release of an announcement. We believe this is related to the results of its discussions with lenders and other stakeholders regarding its financial position, which could result in the group, its JV or subsidiaries’ liquidation in the worst case scenario.
● * As of 31 Aug 2016, the group had US$989m of term loans and bills payable to banks, including US$568m from 75.46%-owned EMAS Offshore Limited and US$150m from 60.9%-owned Triyards Holdings Limited.

Impairment at EMAS Chiyoda Subsea
● * Ezra’s JV partners in its subsea business, EMAS Chiyoda Subsea Limited, recently wrote down their stakes in the JV. Chiyoda Corp took a ¥38bn impairment charge for its 35% stake, while NYK Line took a ¥13bn impairment on its 25% stake.
● * After netting off their share of goodwill, we estimate that the two JV partners wrote down 25-74% of fixed asset value. With estimated bank debt of US$579m, its fixed assets can be written down by 43% before recoverability comes into question.

Quantifying lending exposures to the Ezra group
● * As the banks do not disclose their lending exposures to individual clients, we adopt an arbitrary approach and assume each company’s debt is equally split among its principal bankers as listed in its annual report.
● * Based on this assumption, we estimate that DBS has the largest exposure to the Ezra group of companies at S$637m, followed by OCBC at S$300m and UOB at S$166m. DBS’s larger exposure is mainly due to its lending to EMAS Chiyoda Subsea, given that it was the co-lead arranger for the loan facility for EMAS Chiyoda’s main vessel, the Lewek Constellation.

DBS would be hardest hit in event of liquidation
● * Should the entire Ezra group go into liquidation, the banks will have to recognise their exposures as NPLs and make adequate provisions for the unrecoverable amounts.
● * Based on 40-80% write-down in book value of fixed assets across the group, we estimate DBS will have to make specific provisions (SPs) of 8-16bp, OCBC: 9-12bp and UOB: 6-7bp. This assumes no SPs have been taken yet, and will impact DBS’s FY17F net profit by 6-12%, OCBC: 5-8%, and UOB: 4-5%.

Maintain sector Underweight
● * We remain Underweight on the Singapore banks, as asset quality concerns still loom. Despite higher oil prices and the introduction of new working capital loans by SPRING Singapore, the banks’ exposure to oil & gas firms still remain under stress as E&P spending has yet to return. We are also watchful of the banks’ exposure to the SME sector and trading firms that could be hurt by the stronger US dollar.
● * We are less optimistic than consensus on the banks’ NIM outlook in 2017, as weak loan demand could put pressure on customer loan yields. Recent US$ weakness also supports our more bearish expectation of SIBOR/SOR. OCBC remains our top sell. Risks to our call include higher interest rates and stronger GDP growth.
* *

Sent from Samsung SM-N910G using GAGT

Good Good. Banks dip, I pick
Win Win situation.
Ezra.. pls toh...

 

[chowck]

Oil & gas sector recovering?

Thought of punking Nobel.

Just read somewhere (cant rem which broking hse) TP 25ct!