*Official* Shiny Things club - Part 2

[limster]

This is what you have been waiting for!
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/st...ch-52-week-lows-as-sti-sinks-below-3000-level

STI ETF still above $3. Maybe next week. Friday shorts are covering, so won't go below $3 tomorrow.

Today i bought small amount of Frasers Property and VDPX using SCB to add to the Capitaland that i bought earlier this week.

 

[Maeda_Toshiie]

Because the Monetary Authority of Singapore publishes the going market yield for the benchmark 5 year bond every business day, on its Web site, and that's the current market yield.


No, it's not risky at all. It's actually the least risky item you can buy with Singapore dollars, because it's the safest place to park Singapore dollars. These AAA-rated Singapore government bonds trade within a very narrow range. And placing a non-competitive bid means you're assured that, if you're allocated bonds (which in all likelihood you will be, fully), you'll get the very best yield that anybody obtains in Monday's auction.

If you'd commit suicide because the best yield ends up being "only" 2.28% in Monday's auction, then don't buy this bond.

http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/sgxweb/home/marketinfo/fixed_income/sgs

I won't call that trading at a narrow range.

 

[Maeda_Toshiie]

@ST

I sent you a PM some days ago.

 

[BBCWatcher]

I won't call that trading at a narrow range.

Different maturities have different yields, of course. That's a very separate issue. Specific benchmarks don't fluctuate much day to day.

 

[Shiny Things]

So, first, a question: What would people like to see covered in a 2018-2019 edition of Rich by Retirement? What would you find interesting, or what do you think needs to be updated? Obviously the rise of MBH and Singapore Savings Bonds is a big one; I'd like to flesh out the CPF sections a bit as well.

@ST

I sent you a PM some days ago.

Yep, I got it. I'm tossing around the roboadvisor idea right now, since I've had some interest from a few people.

Stick to your plan. I am reading the Early Retirement Forum and people in their late 50s losing 6 figure and they are consoling each other.

I think here most of us are still very young. So we have a lot of time to ride this.

One thing to keep in mind is that so far, the S&P 500 is off about 10% from its highs of the year. That's a pretty average drawdown; in any given year, it's pretty normal to see about a 10-13% drawdown from the highs to the lows. So what we're seeing right now is unusual compared to 2017, which was a bit of a ridiculously good year; but it's normal compared to most years.

Iwda below 53 now, should we buy or wait for further dip?

Depends: does your allocation say you need to buy IWDA? Remember, you're not trying to pick the lows; nobody knows where the low is going to be.

That's quite a big drop. I have been short SIMSCI to hedge my STI ETF long position. The portfolio size almost similar with roughly about 80% STI ETF and 20% Singtel. For ST Index, from around 3600 to 3050, portfolio down about 4% mainly due to Singtel portion.

So, couple of things:
1) Why not just sell the STI ETF rather than shorting futures against it? Seems a bit capital-intensive.
2) Most of the people in this thread aren't going to be chucking it around in futures, nor should they be. Actively trading and trying to take hedges on and off is sort of the antithesis of what we're talking about here.

Can anyone care to share any explanation why the IWDA in year 2016 from about USD $38 to now in 2018 around USD$54?

the IWDA rise from 2016 to 2018 is much higher during the 2 years period of 2014-2016.

cheers and thanks

2016-2018 has generally been a pretty good period for the global economy. The start of 2016 was the depths of the last big emerging-market wobble, and everything was getting sold off pretty hard; but since then, the US and European economies have been chugging along relatively well (which is good for stocks); and the US economy has navigated the Fed's rate hikes very well.

 

[revhappy]

Indeed S&P 500 has fallen only 10% and in SGD terms, since SGD has declined, it has not even fallen.

However, the rest of the world is in a 2016 style bear market, this has never happened in the recent history. If you are an American investor in rest of the world, you are absolutely screwed, since on top of the stocks decline the underlying currencies have depreciated significantly.

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[Slavor]

Hey ST, bought your book a few days ago to kick-start my investment journey and I would like to thank you for providing valuable advice in a Singaporean context.

Yes I think adding more CPF-related advice would be welcome. I have spent the last few days trawling through the pages of this thread, and even until now I still have the barest idea on how best to treat the CPF portion of my savings. There are quite a few considerations for the young investor in Singapore: would it be better to tap on OA for housing in its entirety? Or perhaps better to leave it in and reap the 2.5% interest. And with BBCW's suggestion that CPF should be treated as the bond like component of your portfolio, does it make sense to not invest anything else into bonds?

Just a few things that came into my head when I read up on this matter these past few days. CPF takes up a fifth of a person's salary here and I think that most would be (rightfully) anxious to maximise its utility.

So, first, a question: What would people like to see covered in a 2018-2019 edition of Rich by Retirement? What would you find interesting, or what do you think needs to be updated? Obviously the rise of MBH and Singapore Savings Bonds is a big one; I'd like to flesh out the CPF sections a bit as well.

 

[Shiny Things]

Indeed S&P 500 has fallen only 10% and in SGD terms, since SGD has declined, it has not even fallen.

However, the rest of the world is in a 2016 style bear market, this has never happened in the recent history. If you are an American investor in rest of the world, you are absolutely screwed, since on top of the stocks decline the underlying currencies have depreciated significantly.

Errm... not really? You've just described my situation (an American investor with plenty of rest-of-world holdings), and my overseas investments are down but they're not disastrous.

VEA (Vanguard's DM-ex-US ETF) is off about 11.5% from its recent highs in USD terms, and VWO (Vanguard's EM ETF) is off about 10% in USD terms over the same period. To be fair, VWO's been dribbling off since about June, but those numbers still aren't vastly worse than what I've had from the S&P 500 over the same period.

(And my bond holdings are off about 0.3% this month, so they're doing exactly what they're supposed to. When I do my six-monthly rebalance in November I should have plenty of ammo to buy stocks.)

 

[revhappy]

Errm... not really? You've just described my situation (an American investor with plenty of rest-of-world holdings), and my overseas investments are down but they're not disastrous.

VEA (Vanguard's DM-ex-US ETF) is off about 11.5% from its recent highs in USD terms, and VWO (Vanguard's EM ETF) is off about 10% in USD terms over the same period. To be fair, VWO's been dribbling off since about June, but those numbers still aren't vastly worse than what I've had from the S&P 500 over the same period.

(And my bond holdings are off about 0.3% this month, so they're doing exactly what they're supposed to. When I do my six-monthly rebalance in November I should have plenty of ammo to buy stocks.)

The EIMI in my portfolio is down 16% and VEUD is 11% down and both of them were bought after the Jan peak.

If I look at VWRD chart, everything was fine until SEP 21st. Then it just fell off a cliff.

Sent from Dont Take Any Of My Statment As Investment Advice. Do Your Own Due Diligence. using GAGT

 

[BBCWatcher]

So, first, a question: What would people like to see covered in a 2018-2019 edition of Rich by Retirement? What would you find interesting, or what do you think needs to be updated? Obviously the rise of MBH and Singapore Savings Bonds is a big one; I'd like to flesh out the CPF sections a bit as well.

In addition to MBH and SSBs, we've seen some more individual retail bonds and notes, such as the Temasek 2023 bonds (thumbs up on those who want quality Singapore dollar bonds, but only with cash) and the Astrea notes (thumbs down).

Lion Global's new fund (via a zero fee platform, such as POEMS) might be a decent choice for SRS funds.

CareShield Life is coming soon.

Singaporeans continue getting more internationally oriented in terms of studying, working, retiring, and marrying. That trend should properly be reflected in financial plans.

 

[kingboonz]

I would like to see a comprehensive guide on lump sum investing instead of DCA.

 

[Shiny Things]

I would like to see a comprehensive guide on lump sum investing instead of DCA.

I'm going to be a bit flippant here. The difference between lump sum investing and DCA:

Lump sum investing: you have a lump sum. You decide what you want to buy. You buy everything at once. (You might also give me a call for help executing it without moving the market, if the lump is big enough.) You go to the pub.

Dollar-cost averaging: you have a lump sum, or maybe you have a stream of income (like from regular paychecks). You decide what you want to buy. You buy that thing regularly, according to the schedule you've set. You go to the pub.

Seriously though: what would you like to know? The difference between "lump sum investing" and "dollar cost averaging" is just how you buy into the position. It's not what you buy, it's how you buy it, and once you're actually invested that doesn't matter at all.

 

[Shiny Things]

In addition to MBH and SSBs, we've seen some more individual retail bonds and notes, such as the Temasek 2023 bonds (thumbs up on those who want quality Singapore dollar bonds, but only with cash) and the Astrea notes (thumbs down).

Lion Global's new fund (via a zero fee platform, such as POEMS) might be a decent choice for SRS funds.

CareShield Life is coming soon.

Singaporeans continue getting more internationally oriented in terms of studying, working, retiring, and marrying. That trend should properly be reflected in financial plans.

Which Lion Global fund are we talking about? The stuff they've done in the past has been way too expensive for what it is (wrappers around Vanguard funds, basically), but I'm willing to give 'em a second look.

 

[thestatsguy]

So, first, a question: What would people like to see covered in a 2018-2019 edition of Rich by Retirement? What would you find interesting, or what do you think needs to be updated? Obviously the rise of MBH and Singapore Savings Bonds is a big one; I'd like to flesh out the CPF sections a bit as well.

Hi Shiny, could you spare a few words for the Phillip Sing Income ETF as well?

 

[archcherub]

I'm going to be a bit flippant here. The difference between lump sum investing and DCA:

Lump sum investing: you have a lump sum. You decide what you want to buy. You buy everything at once. (You might also give me a call for help executing it without moving the market, if the lump is big enough.) You go to the pub.

Dollar-cost averaging: you have a lump sum, or maybe you have a stream of income (like from regular paychecks). You decide what you want to buy. You buy that thing regularly, according to the schedule you've set. You go to the pub.

Seriously though: what would you like to know? The difference between "lump sum investing" and "dollar cost averaging" is just how you buy into the position. It's not what you buy, it's how you buy it, and once you're actually invested that doesn't matter at all.

maybe he is trying to figure out whether after the Oct correction currently, should he do a lump sum investment or do a dollar cost averaging?

I get that question recently from my younger siblings too.
Not a lot, around $40k to $50k, should she buy in now, or break into 12 months to dollar cost averaging it out....

I personally told her I will probably lump sum in, but she probably should average it out into 12 or 24 months

 

[Maeda_Toshiie]

maybe he is trying to figure out whether after the Oct correction currently, should he do a lump sum investment or do a dollar cost averaging?

I get that question recently from my younger siblings too.
Not a lot, around $40k to $50k, should she buy in now, or break into 12 months to dollar cost averaging it out....

I personally told her I will probably lump sum in, but she probably should average it out into 12 or 24 months

For beginners, the latter is preferred for psychological reasons. Humans are not mathematical machines, nor are they good at recognizing risks (which they wrongly measure by outcomes).

 

[Maeda_Toshiie]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQyCUgiHcn4&t=158

Access to private equity for US retail investors?

 

[kehyi4]

Which Lion Global fund are we talking about? The stuff they've done in the past has been way too expensive for what it is (wrappers around Vanguard funds, basically), but I'm willing to give 'em a second look.

I believe BBCw is referring to this one:

https://www.lgidirect.com.sg/allseasonsfund/

LionGlobal All Seasons Fund
Open to cash and SRS (no CPF)
Expense ratio capped at 0.50%
comes in two flavours:

 

[BBCWatcher]

Which Lion Global fund are we talking about? The stuff they've done in the past has been way too expensive for what it is (wrappers around Vanguard funds, basically), but I'm willing to give 'em a second look.

I haven't found anything better (lower cost) yet specifically for those non-U.S. persons who wish to invest Singapore Supplementary Retirement Scheme (SRS) dollars in a reasonably globally diversified basket of stocks. The candidate fund in that niche role seems to be the LionGlobal All Seasons Fund Growth (SGD Class, Accumulating), ISIN SG9999019285. And it really must be purchased through a zero charge platform to avoid the sales charge, probably specifically POEMS.

 

[revhappy]

We are at 52 week low for IWDA. So we are well and truly into a downturn now.

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