Tesla stock

[hwmook]

How you roll ? Sell at the loss and re sell at the higher expiration?

Sell and buy, IBKR can roll for you easily. You can make money from rolling, just different strike price and duration. The beauty of options is you always make money from time decay if you sell.

If you sell a USD 910 strike 28Jan and price drop to USD 900 on 28Jan. You probably can rollover by buying back and selling a USD 890 strike 4Feb option for same price. I have been selling calls and puts on stock that I own, it pay me handsome rewards no matter the underlying stock go up or down.

 

[dushensiao]

Sell and buy, IBKR can roll for you easily. You can make money from rolling, just different strike price and duration. The beauty of options is you always make money from time decay if you sell.

If you sell a USD 910 strike 28Jan and price drop to USD 900 on 28Jan. You probably can rollover by buying back and selling a USD 890 strike 4Feb option for same price. I have been selling calls and puts on stock that I own, it pay me handsome rewards no matter the underlying stock go up or down.

Is your weekly options cash secured or naked?

 

[hwmook]

Is your weekly options cash secured or naked?

Partial cash secured, partial margin.

 

[s7460597]

Fundamentally has the company changed for the worse at 1200 last year and 940+ now? No.

Deliveries smash expectations? Yes.
Analysts revising EPS up? Yes.

Why are we down now? Fed taper tantrums and rate hikes and they should be priced in within the next week after fed speaks. It's a macro issue and it's affecting every company right now. This is a discount at below 1000, much less below 950. Sure it could go further down to below 900 temporarily but are you sure you can time the market bottom? At below 900, with your thinking cfm will say it will go below 800 and further down to buy, even below your target price. Chances of you missing the rebound with your thinking? High.

Market always overreact on both the downside and upside. I think we're overreacting to the downside now and this is a good opportunity. Sure it can test lows at 890 in dec but if it doesnt, you're missing the boat again.

Unless fundamentally the company has changed for the worse, i dont see why anyone shouldnt include tesla in their portfolio. The delivery numbers and execution is there for everyone to see. It is light years ahead of any of its competitors as evident by their EV delivery numbers. Look at ford, Rivian and GM, what a joke. They would be lucky to even have 2021 Tesla's delivery numbers in 2030.

Yup that's the reason I missed 500 last year. Scared it could go lower.

 

[edmwftw]

Fundamentally has the company changed for the worse at 1200 last year and 940+ now? No.

Deliveries smash expectations? Yes.
Analysts revising EPS up? Yes.

Why are we down now? Fed taper tantrums and rate hikes and they should be priced in within the next week after fed speaks. It's a macro issue and it's affecting every company right now. This is a discount at below 1000, much less below 950. Sure it could go further down to below 900 temporarily but are you sure you can time the market bottom? At below 900, with your thinking cfm will say it will go below 800 and further down to buy, even below your target price. Chances of you missing the rebound with your thinking? High.

Market always overreact on both the downside and upside. I think we're overreacting to the downside now and this is a good opportunity. Sure it can test lows at 890 in dec but if it doesnt, you're missing the boat again.

Unless fundamentally the company has changed for the worse, i dont see why anyone shouldnt include tesla in their portfolio. The delivery numbers and execution is there for everyone to see. It is light years ahead of any of its competitors as evident by their EV delivery numbers. Look at ford, Rivian and GM, what a joke. They would be lucky to even have 2021 Tesla's delivery numbers in 2030.

Tesla is a good company no doubt. But the share price is still too high and overbought.

If you compare to expensive value stocks like Amazon, it's traded far below its fair intrinsic value. And current bearish sentiments does not bode well for Tesla stock for the time being.


https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/automobiles/nasdaq-tsla/tesla#valuation

 

[edmwftw]

Tesla earnings to be announced this Wed. If earnings soar, it might be the only high-cap tech stock huating for this week to lead the charge. But if they miss earnings.....Not for the faint-hearted, LOL.
https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/...-full-year-2021-financial-results-and-webcast
AUSTIN, Texas, January 12, 2022 – Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2021 after market close on Wednesday, January 26, 2022. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q4 and full year 2021 update, which will be available on Tesla’s Investor Relations website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 4:30 p.m. Central Time (5:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook.

What: Date of Tesla Q4 and full year 2021 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast
When: Wednesday, January 26, 2022
Time: 4:30 p.m. Central Time / 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time
Q4 & FY 2021 Update: http://ir.tesla.com
Webcast: http://ir.tesla.com (live and replay)

Approximately two hours after the Q&A session, an archived version of the webcast will be available on the Company’s website.

For additional information, please visit http://ir.tesla.com.
------------------

 

[HarCKai]

Tesla is a good company no doubt. But the share price is still too high and overbought.

If you compare to expensive value stocks like Amazon, it's traded far below its fair intrinsic value. And current bearish sentiments does not bode well for Tesla stock for the time being.


https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/automobiles/nasdaq-tsla/tesla#valuation

You're looking at the current PE which is wrong to value growth stocks. Rebase Tesla for forward PE of $3 EPS per quarter for 2022. Currently that is a 80 PE multiple instead of your 274 multiple.

Saying that tesla is overvalued based on current EPS and multiple of 274 is like saying that your annual earnings are the same as the previous after you get promoted. It makes no sense.

 

[edmwftw]

You're looking at the current PE which is wrong to value growth stocks. Rebase Tesla for forward PE of $3 EPS per quarter for 2022. Currently that is a 80 PE multiple instead of your 274 multiple.

Saying that tesla is overvalued based on current EPS and multiple of 274 is like saying that your annual earnings are the same as the previous after you get promoted. It makes no sense.

Simply Wall ST actually uses the more traditional and widely accepted two-stage DCF model to derive fair value which is more reliable, not the PE/EPS model like the one below which will be much worse.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/automobiles/nasdaq-tsla/tesla#valuationhttps://support.simplywall.st/hc/en-us/articles/360001741016-How-is-fair-value-calculated
Hence their valuation is fairly accurate at around US$500 which is already conservative.

https://www.investorsobserver.com/symbols/tsla/valuation

The ideal case for Tesla for the next 12 months is to gradually reduce to near US$500 before soaring again to make more people huat, else if sudden crash will be disastrous for those who use leverage. But we all know Tesla stock always defies the odds, LOL.

 

[hwmook]

You're looking at the current PE which is wrong to value growth stocks. Rebase Tesla for forward PE of $3 EPS per quarter for 2022. Currently that is a 80 PE multiple instead of your 274 multiple.

Saying that tesla is overvalued based on current EPS and multiple of 274 is like saying that your annual earnings are the same as the previous after you get promoted. It makes no sense.

Forward PE of 80 is cheap to you? Stocks with 40x PE are getting hammered, 80x forward PE definitely doesn't seem like a good deal.

 

[boroangel]

I will get slaughtered by those knee deep in Tesla for posting this here but I actually think in the next 3 years Tesla will get to a fairer valuation of $300 to $400 and even so it would still be more expensive compared to the likes of apple , msft.

Just wondering where is the moat in Tesla?

Competition seems to be catching up fast, and have this feeling Lucid and eventually Rivian will end up encroaching on a lot of their sales. Not to say the traditional auto makers who start coming out with their own EVs.
When the market is flooded with EV options in a few years time, I know personally I will look around the different automaker options before I decide which to buy. In terms of design, I personally I like what lucid is coming up with ( not vested in Lucid).

anyways my point is competition for Tesla will only get more intense. Those long term put options on Tesla…are looking attractive.

just expressing my opinion here, end of the day it’s what we make from the stock that matters in our bank account.

 

[boroangel]

Just to add I also find it quite interesting that there’s quite a few Youtubers coming out desperately last week to explain why they still believe in Tesla and why they are holding the stock.

you can sense there’s some desperation there.

 

[HarCKai]

Forward PE of 80 is cheap to you? Stocks with 40x PE are getting hammered, 80x forward PE definitely doesn't seem like a good deal.

Analysts are setting price targets of 1200 to 1400. Growth stocks have higher multiples to account for their future earnings. If by your logic, every stock should only have 20 PE multiple then you wouldnt even have bought amazon, apple back when they were still growing.

Find me a 20 or 40 PE stock that's growing 88% YoY? Tesla just grew 88% on deliveries YoY and you think it deserves a lower than 40 PE ratio?

What's expensive and what's cheap doesnt seem that straightforward based on your boomer mentality of buy only at 20 PE multiple.

 

[HarCKai]

Simply Wall ST actually uses the more traditional and widely accepted two-stage DCF model to derive fair value which is more reliable, not the PE/EPS model like the one below which will be much worse.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/automobiles/nasdaq-tsla/tesla#valuationhttps://support.simplywall.st/hc/en-us/articles/360001741016-How-is-fair-value-calculated
Hence their valuation is fairly accurate at around US$500 which is already conservative.

https://www.investorsobserver.com/symbols/tsla/valuation

The ideal case for Tesla for the next 12 months is to gradually reduce to near US$500 before soaring again to make more people huat, else if sudden crash will be disastrous for those who use leverage. But we all know Tesla stock always defies the odds, LOL.

The issue with such models is that it usually reduces the number of years in which tesla will be growing at 50% YoY which Elon Musk says tesla will grow at for the foreseeable future. Heck I dont even think wall street accounts for 50% growth in their dcf model. Tesla just did 88% YoY for deliveries.

We have austin, berlin and china ramping up its factory this year, 50% growth this year is a given.

I understand that you rely on wall street information but just wondering, how many times in the past year have analysts underestimated tesla's delivery numbers? I guess that's where the dcf model has its issues.

 

[HarCKai]

I will get slaughtered by those knee deep in Tesla for posting this here but I actually think in the next 3 years Tesla will get to a fairer valuation of $300 to $400 and even so it would still be more expensive compared to the likes of apple , msft.

Just wondering where is the moat in Tesla?

Competition seems to be catching up fast, and have this feeling Lucid and eventually Rivian will end up encroaching on a lot of their sales. Not to say the traditional auto makers who start coming out with their own EVs.
When the market is flooded with EV options in a few years time, I know personally I will look around the different automaker options before I decide which to buy. In terms of design, I personally I like what lucid is coming up with ( not vested in Lucid).

anyways my point is competition for Tesla will only get more intense. Those long term put options on Tesla…are looking attractive.

just expressing my opinion here, end of the day it’s what we make from the stock that matters in our bank account.

Like i said, it will be a miracle if lucid, rivian, gm, ford can match tesla's 2021 delivery numbers by 2030. Legacy automakers and new ev companies taking away significant tesla's market share?

I think if you add all of their total EV production numbers in 2030, they wont be able to match tesla's 936k EV deliveries in 2021.

 

[boroangel]

Hi HarCkai, curious about your train of thought at the moment. Being a bull on Tesla, are you hoping it keeps going up from here? Or are you hoping it will go down in the short term so you can continue to pick up more and accumulate?

also, mind sharing whats your average price for Tesla in your portfolio?

 

[HarCKai]

Hi HarCkai, curious about your train of thought at the moment. Being a bull on Tesla, are you hoping it keeps going up from here? Or are you hoping it will go down in the short term so you can continue to pick up more and accumulate?

also, mind sharing whats your average price for Tesla in your portfolio?

I hope it remains between 900-1200 till sep to accumulate. I think it will be around the 1400-1500 range by year end. That being said, with the macro issues US has right now, i will only accumulate at below 1000 before fed speaks in March. I dont foresee tesla being below 1000 after april

I have 76 shares currently with average price of around 700. Started accumulating last year March.

 

[boroangel]

I hope it remains between 900-1200 till sep to accumulate. I think it will be around the 1400-1500 range by year end. That being said, with the macro issues US has right now, i will only accumulate at below 1000 before fed speaks in March. I dont foresee tesla being below 1000 after april

I have 76 shares currently with average price of around 700. Started accumulating last year March.

Ok 700 so you have some buffer.

Let’s see what happens this year with Tesla, it always defies what people think it will be and really no one knows what it can do.

 

[HarCKai]

Ok 700 so you have some buffer.

Let’s see what happens this year with Tesla, it always defies what people think it will be and really no one knows what it can do.

Yup agreed. Even if it does badly this year, it wont be because of the business itself but because of macro.

As long as it reaches my thesis of at least $4000 by 2030, I am fine with a down year.

 

[RedsYWNA]

Ok 700 so you have some buffer.

Let’s see what happens this year with Tesla, it always defies what people think it will be and really no one knows what it can do.

For companies like Tesla, there will be a period of time when you can make enormous gains, before the competitors get going. Just like the time when the first airline, the first copier, the first super computer started and so on.....

But dont HODL till 30 years later when everyone caught up and it becomes mainstream.

 

[Overture1928]

I was skeptical about TSLA early last year but after reading up more, TSLA is really a beast in their field.

The technology lead that they have put themselves up ahead with other manufacturers is too much.

Now with gigafactories being commissioned, and their AI being developed, I think this is one stock you can DCA for the next 10 years and still beat the market