The bears den

[NewInvestor]

wow the selling is jin scary.

It is already recovering. Probably bargain hunting.

 

[revhappy]

It is already recovering. Probably bargain hunting.

I don't think, things like this get settled in one day.
The most important thing is to watch how CNY moves tomorrow, if there is another big fall, expect all hell to break loose. But I dont think it will be a one way street. It may go up and down, but the direction is down, so I expect global markets to keep plunging until Yuan stabilises.

 

[Trader11]

I don't think, things like this get settled in one day.
The most important thing is to watch how CNY moves tomorrow, if there is another big fall, expect all hell to break loose. But I dont think it will be a one way street. It may go up and down, but the direction is down, so I expect global markets to keep plunging until Yuan stabilises.

The last bear market, market crashes 1-2% everyday... Most SSI warriors were panicking....

 

[Trader11]

Even Shanghai suspend market because of 10% crashes

 

[coolhead]

Even Shanghai suspend market because of 10% crashes

Hsi futures at -4.5% Liao.

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[littleredboy]

wow my VX keeps hitting alert. up down up down.

 

[revhappy]

Hsi futures at -4.5% Liao.

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This is continuation of today's cash market close. So 3% has already been accounted for, 1.5% is the extra fall. So tomorrow cash open it should 1.5% down, if futures close today at this level.

 

[coolhead]

This is continuation of today's cash market close. So 3% has already been accounted for, 1.5% is the extra fall. So tomorrow cash open it should 1.5% down, if futures close today at this level.

I see. I tot that 4.5% is new down after hsi close. So it's not so bad afterall...I don't really keep track of hsi until today.

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[jasonlim1988]

The last bear market, market crashes 1-2% everyday... Most SSI warriors were panicking....

Which period do u refer to?

 

[revhappy]

Whoa!

 

[Mecisteus]

I'm starting to buy back when there is a lot of fear.

 

[revhappy]

US futures down another 1%, after yesterday's 3% fall! Wow, that was a quick plunge.

05 Aug - 06:03:42 PM [RTRS] (ESc1) - US EMINI FUTURES FOR S&P 500 ESC1 FALL 1% IN ASIA AFTER U.S. TREASURY SAYS CHINA A CURRENCY MANIPULATOR

 

[peterchan75]

I'm starting to buy back when there is a lot of fear.

DJI close on the fib retrace of 38.2%. It could go further to 61.8%(Jun 2019 low) or even 127.2%(Dec 2018 low). You no scare?

 

[coolhead]

Yikes! Uvxy up 30% that's mightily huge!

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[revhappy]

I guess I'd ask a couple of questions:

1) Why do you need AUD in the first place? If you don't need it for a specific reason, why bother buying it?

2) What's your holding period?

---

The default answer is usually going to be "just stick it in govvy bonds". But really, the miserable yields on Aussie govvies (1% in the 10-year!) mean that it's not worth taking the FX risk: that's actually less than you'd earn just leaving the money in the bank in Singapore.

Another option is shorting ASX, you don't even need to convert to AUD. I agree with this tweet, ASX needs to fall a lot, just because AUD has fallen a lot doesn't solve their problems.

 

[DukeCS33]

The US treasury has designated China as a currency manipulator. It does seem like we have hit a point of no return on the trade talks as both sides are just not making any compromises that is critical for a negotiated deal. And I guess that's the reason why the SP futures are trading some 1+% lower this morning. This tit for tat escalation may well continue for a while yet and we may see the equity markets continue to sell off. From here, I would like to watch the Fed's indication if they would cut... and if they do, they would need to deliver an aggressive one to arrest the slides in the equity markets. The 2 - 10s in the UST space bears watching and an inversion may be used by the equity markets as another excuse to sell off the next leg.

Sell offs like this does vindicate my change in trading approach to trade intraday. I kept a record of the swing trades that I may have taken if I were to swing trade and on hindsight, those trades would have suffered large drawdowns. That said, I did not get to trade the setups that I identified for last night's trading as there was a large gap down and I would not chase prices.

There are certain stocks that I have identified for my long term portfolio and am now waiting to scale in an entry into those counters. As a general approach, I tend to wait for those stocks to hit their 200 MAs before contemplating a move.

 

[revhappy]

The last leg of rally from the bottom of May 2019, was entirely driven by fed rate cuts and even though Trump had escalated the trade war in the beginning of May. The fall in May was very slow, I guess because markets were cautious and they were strong longs. But the last leg from May bottom were the most careless and weak longs who got in sort of FOMO and threw in the towel and now they are bailing out. There was absolutely no reason for markets to go up just because Fed was cutting, so they deserve to be chopped.

 

[coolhead]

The last leg of rally from the bottom of May 2019, was entirely driven by fed rate cuts and even though Trump had escalated the trade war in the beginning of May. The fall in May was very slow, I guess because markets were cautious and they were strong longs. But the last leg from May bottom were the most careless and weak longs who got in sort of FOMO and threw in the towel and now they are bailing out. There was absolutely no reason for markets to go up just because Fed was cutting, so they deserve to be chopped.

Actually all the more there's reason for markets to go up because the fed is cutting isn't it?

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[DukeCS33]

Actually all the more there's reason for markets to go up because the fed is cutting isn't it?

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If the Fed cuts aggressively, the Markets should rally. There is a chance that this scenario does not play out and then we are going to be in a lot of trouble.... We had already a lot of QE / rates cut globally but that has failed to spur growth. So I would not rule out that second scenario. I would likely trade from the perspective that markets rally but the question is when would the Fed start on this and by how much?

 

[coolhead]

If the Fed cuts aggressively, the Markets should rally. There is a chance that this scenario does not play out and then we are going to be in a lot of trouble.... We had already a lot of QE / rates cut globally but that has failed to spur growth. So I would not rule out that second scenario. I would likely trade from the perspective that markets rally but the question is when would the Fed start on this and by how much?

But why is there alot of trouble? If there is no corporate growth, the lower borrowing costs help to sustain share buybacks.

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