The bears den

[Dividends Warrior]

I have been observing this thread. Seems like opinions here will change easily since there are no solid thesis.

The situation is..... fluid

 

[DukeCS33]

My approach:
Stick to rules of your back tested system. Don't let the market dictate your opinions. And don't assume what the market should be like....

It can be as simple as dollar cost averaging etc.

Aside from backtesting, has your system been adding on to your winning average? So you have no views or calls and rely only on your system to trade?

I like the DCA approach and think it is a very good methodology for ETF investments as most indices tracking ETFs are gamed to rise... The methodology of ETF is as such.

However when one ventures into stock picking, I find that most retail systems built on technicals just could not win. So even if there is backtesting, it only gives some false comfort - the forward looking story is not that rosy as the Insto system funds, HFT have various strategies to exploit the retail players. Unless, you have designed a prop trading system built around unique algo or technicals, it would be hard to get an edge over the funds who have $$$ to research advance systems. If you have a chance to work on the other side, you would know what I mean.... maybe you have designed a unique system with prop indicators but you need to get a few years of actually trying the system and not solely rely on backtesting as a means to conclude that the system has an edge. Also, for most systems, they tend to throw out a few candidates - if one has limited funds and need to then narrow down the choice and not trade on all shortlisted picks, it would not be an accurate reflection of the system's edge.

There are also some examples on youtube… Adam Khoo has posted some of his systems... They work only when markets are trending up strongly. (
then, one need not have a system...just close eye and buy blindly and you may also be winning) And when markets whip around, the systems breakdown. That said, when his systems show up a few candidates, not all get traded as well... There is still discretion and when discretion is applied, was it with a view or without a view on where markets are trading? We all have our confirmation bias and that's where I find that retail system breaks down.

 

[DukeCS33]

My approach:
Don't let the market dictate your opinions. And don't assume what the market should be like....

Quite the contrary, when I trade intraday, I let the market tell me what to do. If the bias is bullish, I rather be buying. Of course if it is near a technical support or resistance level, then I do not take a position ahead of it unless I have a strong view that it may break or reject. It also applies for very short term swing trades. On top of that, you need to have discipline to cut losses when your view proves to be wrong. Ultimately its all about trading probabilities and hence this saying - the trend is your friend.

 

[Trader11]

Aside from backtesting, has your system been adding on to your winning average? So you have no views or calls and rely only on your system to trade?

I like the DCA approach and think it is a very good methodology for ETF investments as most indices tracking ETFs are gamed to rise... The methodology of ETF is as such.

However when one ventures into stock picking, I find that most retail systems built on technicals just could not win. So even if there is backtesting, it only gives some false comfort - the forward looking story is not that rosy as the Insto system funds, HFT have various strategies to exploit the retail players. Unless, you have designed a prop trading system built around unique algo or technicals, it would be hard to get an edge over the funds who have $$$ to research advance systems. If you have a chance to work on the other side, you would know what I mean.... maybe you have designed a unique system with prop indicators but you need to get a few years of actually trying the system and not solely rely on backtesting as a means to conclude that the system has an edge. Also, for most systems, they tend to throw out a few candidates - if one has limited funds and need to then narrow down the choice and not trade on all shortlisted picks, it would not be an accurate reflection of the system's edge.

There are also some examples on youtube… Adam Khoo has posted some of his systems... They work only when markets are trending up strongly. (
then, one need not have a system...just close eye and buy blindly and you may also be winning) And when markets whip around, the systems breakdown. That said, when his systems show up a few candidates, not all get traded as well... There is still discretion and when discretion is applied, was it with a view or without a view on where markets are trading? We all have our confirmation bias and that's where I find that retail system breaks down.

Exactly, forward testing is important as well.... Also constantly thinking how to improve and testing new ideas. If the market is rigged, then what's the best way to measure it.. That's the question to answer.

 

[d9_lives]

revhappy I know you very well.

Soon you will fund more money. Then more money.

And you will sell everything. Close account.

The cycle repeats.

It's destined that he will go PRATA.
There's a bet between you and him isn't it?

 

[Mecisteus]

It's destined that he will go PRATA.
There's a bet between you and him isn't it?

https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/119580653-post1866.html

Yes. Actually, he can take money any time if his level is triggered.

While I have to wait past 2021 to see my $100.

revhappy, can I collect $100 from you first?

I will pay you $200 if your level triggered.

 

[Dividends Warrior]

https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/119580653-post1866.html

Yes. Actually, he can take money any time if his level is triggered.

While I have to wait past 2021 to see my $100.

revhappy, can I collect $100 from you first?

I will pay you $200 if your level triggered.

This is exciting

 

[d9_lives]

https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/119580653-post1866.html

Yes. Actually, he can take money any time if his level is triggered.

While I have to wait past 2021 to see my $100.

revhappy, can I collect $100 from you first?

I will pay you $200 if your level triggered.

His prediction is bolder than Jim Rogers's...he knows something!
There's a massive, sinister conspiracy!
...maybe he's a PROPHET?

Let's scare the **** outta each other

 

[churnmaster]

The other interpretation is that the smart money believe that some kind of trade deal will eventually be done despite today's doom n gloom. That US n China are now merely sabre rattling but will eventually come to their senses.

I think despite all the postering Trump is more keen for a deal and the Chinese have figured out the same.

It the same that's happening with Iran. He wants them to come and negotiate from a position of weakness.

Pressure tactics won't work for both these countries.

 

[revhappy]

Trump wants to keep the cake and eat it too. He wants to reduce dependence on China, rightly so. Yet, he doesn't want the markets to tank. So he keeps talking up the markets that deal is on. The Chinese never said the deal is on and not pretending about it. They are putting massive stimulus into the economy to prepare for th trade war. It needs to be seen for how long Trump manages to fool the markets.

 

[churnmaster]

Not sure... I was not too sure yesterday as well as we had a mini downward channel that was broken to the topside - price action suggests a test of the upside and I was not sure if 2866 would break. So my trading plan was built around a break... CSCO and WMT strong earnings suggest that the market may test the topside and attempt a break. So I waited for a break before going long as the intraday bias would have been for the upside.

Today, I would also watch the price action around the 2900.

Relatively, 2800 is a strong support as it was a pivot point... 2900 has not that kind of credentials. The only hint of selling was that the market rejected the 2893 level in the close last night.

I am still bearish but am paying attention to the headline tweets as they can change the market direction. The market was oversold and has rebounded from that condition - for the market to push higher, there needs to be a trade deal and until we get that, I would sell the rallies if there are good short setups. If not, I am happy to trade intraday.

Weekly 100 pts range should be good enough to make some money. Three up days in a row, fourth day open gap up and then move lower ... just hoping

 

[churnmaster]

There has to be some risk premium for all the new uncertainty created. Right now markets are reacting to stale data. WMT earnings is past. They have said themselves that prices will rise if tariffs are increased.

The other thing EMs are still down compared to US. I already see a dislocation here.

Yep, the dislocation started around mid-Mar when the Brazil index peaked and started moving lower while most other markets were still rallying. Now other EMs too have joined the down move. In early 2016, when the EM story came back into favor, even then Brazil index was one of the first movers.

 

[DukeCS33]

Trump wants to keep the cake and eat it too. He wants to reduce dependence on China, rightly so. Yet, he doesn't want the markets to tank. So he keeps talking up the markets that deal is on. The Chinese never said the deal is on and not pretending about it. They are putting massive stimulus into the economy to prepare for th trade war. It needs to be seen for how long Trump manages to fool the markets.

You need to be open to the possibility that the trade war may escalate but the Markets may not tank. That's what happens when there is too much liquidity floating in the system.... Fed would not sit by and do nothing either.... if they pump prime massively, the Markets may well be supported.

 

[revhappy]

I hope China can meddle in the American media and call out Trump's bluff. China was quiet until this time, because they were buying time.

 

[churnmaster]

A slowdown in the economy with prices rising would present one of the toughest environment for the Fed to manage. Does it deal with slower growth and cut rates or raise rates to combat higher inflation? Big dilemma.

I think Fed should have started raising the rates much earlier. Janet Yellen just maintained statuesque and pushed the can down the road for Powell. I would say he did the right thing by raising rates.

 

[DukeCS33]

I think Fed should have started raising the rates much earlier. Janet Yellen just maintained statuesque and pushed the can down the road for Powell. I would say he did the right thing by raising rates.

We are speaking with the benefit of hindsight... in reality, it is very hard for them to do that. I read a stats sometime ago that the Fed does not forecast better than anyone.... Their records were at best 50-50.

 

[churnmaster]

You need to be open to the possibility that the trade war may escalate but the Markets may not tank. That's what happens when there is too much liquidity floating in the system.... Fed would not sit by and do nothing either.... if they pump prime massively, the Markets may well be supported.

Exactly and fact that in this 10 yrs bull run US has been the strongest amongst the developed markets, more that double its previous peak.

The weaker markets are the first to crumble and its already happening here in Asia.

 

[revhappy]

China may have little interest in trade talks with U.S right now - Xinhua

China is talking down markets and Trump is talking up, lol.

 

[churnmaster]

China may have little interest in trade talks with U.S right now - Xinhua

China is talking down markets and Trump is talking up, lol.

Go long China and short US .... Just kidding

 

[revhappy]