The bears den

[BBCWatcher]

I think he sure win 2nd term.

I think he will win the 2nd term again.

I doubt he will win another term, he has too much baggage and democrats already made significant gains in the recent mid-term elections.

There’s a market for this prediction, almost. As I write this, the market consensus is that the Democratic nominee is solidly favored to win the popular vote and thus somewhat or slightly favored to win the electoral vote. (The electoral vote determines the winner, and it’s currently a helpful factor for the Republican nominee. Donald Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton in 2016 but won the electoral vote.)

 

[limster]

i'm surprised that people are already calling the election without even knowing who the democratic candidate is.

I thought people would have learnt from the last election/Brexit, about the limitations of such predictions. Mainly for entertainment value, like Cramer is for stocks.

 

[Merg91]

We are a 'political think tank' lor.
All PhD in political science.

 

[NewInvestor]

i'm surprised that people are already calling the election without even knowing who the democratic candidate is.

I thought people would have learnt from the last election/Brexit, about the limitations of such predictions. Mainly for entertainment value, like Cramer is for stocks.

Oh? Do u need facts and figures to be a political pundit? Is it like you need to know basic economics to be a US President? Haha.

 

[Merg91]

Trump is good.

No war.
Kim's buddy.
Stopping the low end Hispanics illegal
Tickle China /others

 

[littleredboy]

Speculate politics more fun than speculate market mah. Everyday see numbers, candles, bars fun meh. Nothing wrong to voice your own opinion, market open market close, talk c0ck sing song until we go back home pak pak song.

Why so skeptical and cynical leh. Unless you tell me you are US persons, aliens no right to comment so much, then I kowtow to you

This is all Human nature la.
这些都是剔牙买单后，谈笑风生，何足挂齿的话题。

 

[Merg91]

Asian shares near one-week top on soothing trade tone, overall mood cautious
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...ng-trade-tone--overall-mood-cautious-11856352

 

[Mecisteus]

We are all political and stock market analysts here.

If S&P performs well in 2020, that will be the best time to reduce stocks especially after a long long bull run.

From now till next year, get ready for more sky rockets.

The 1st 2 years after the PE, stock market don't perform really well based on past data.

https://www.thebalance.com/presidential-elections-and-stock-market-returns-2388526

 

[limster]

if you speculate on presidential election for entertainment purposes, thats very different from an investor trying to position his portfolio correctly to minimise any potential fallout.

Those doing it for entertainment, I don't take too seriously, like Cramer on MSNBC.

 

[DukeCS33]

This is a apt article for the bears den:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/30/three-charts-suggest-this-rebound-rally-may-falter.html

 

[DukeCS33]

Traders, what has been your experience been last few weeks? Do you find that shorting tends to be more profitable? I have seen few stocks sustaining rallies to the upside while the shorts have been hitting profit objectives much quicker and with higher hit rates. I guess this is kind of showing in the main indices where within the establish trading ranges, sells offs have been more violent while stocks are struggling to rally and often not as fast. Is this a sign of a topping?

 

[Shiny Things]

There’s a market for this prediction, almost. As I write this, the market consensus is that the Democratic nominee is solidly favored to win the popular vote and thus somewhat or slightly favored to win the electoral vote.

I’ll also stick in a plug here for PredictIt, which is pretty liquid on all of these things. The current market for Trump is 42/43; the market for any Republican is 45/46; for any Democrat it’s 56/57; and if you like free money the Libertarian and Green parties are both still 2 bid.

(My fave trade in this particular market is shorting Andrew Yang, who’s inexplicably constantly bid around 10 or 12 to win the Democratic nomination despite never polling above 3% in any poll ever. Shorting Tulsi Gabbard at 5 was good money too, but she collapsed to 1 bid / 2 offer when she missed out on the upcoming debates, so there’s no more juice left in that trade.)

 

[littleredboy]

Yessu. Because of human nature, selling is much easier to click than buy.

My percentages of day trading wins since trade war hoo haa is shorting. I'm only on short time frames though, not sure about others.

Traders, what has been your experience been last few weeks? Do you find that shorting tends to be more profitable? I have seen few stocks sustaining rallies to the upside while the shorts have been hitting profit objectives much quicker and with higher hit rates. I guess this is kind of showing in the main indices where within the establish trading ranges, sells offs have been more violent while stocks are struggling to rally and often not as fast. Is this a sign of a topping?

 

[littleredboy]

Is this...gambling?

I’ll also stick in a plug here for PredictIt, which is pretty liquid on all of these things. The current market for Trump is 42/43; the market for any Republican is 45/46; for any Democrat it’s 56/57; and if you like free money the Libertarian and Green parties are both still 2 bid.

(My fave trade in this particular market is shorting Andrew Yang, who’s inexplicably constantly bid around 10 or 12 to win the Democratic nomination despite never polling above 3% in any poll ever. Shorting Tulsi Gabbard at 5 was good money too, but she collapsed to 1 bid / 2 offer when she missed out on the upcoming debates, so there’s no more juice left in that trade.)

 

[SBC]

70% chance of DJ being down by at least 250 points on Monday.

Time to release some VIX.

 

[revhappy]

70% chance of DJ being down by at least 250 points on Monday.

Time to release some VIX.

You mean markets were expecting Trump to cancel tariffs on Friday evening or Saturday?

 

[creatrixnator]

US markets closed on Monday ...

70% chance of DJ being down by at least 250 points on Monday.

Time to release some VIX.

 

[peterchan75]

https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us

 

[littleredboy]

anyone has experience with cityindex CFD? Seems cheapest among others.

 

[Average]

anyone has experience with cityindex CFD? Seems cheapest among others.

Careful that topup via credit cards is now chargeble. Last time is free