The bears den

[revhappy]

@LizAnnSonders

From @washingtonpost article this weekend re #tariffs (2 weeks ago vs. today)
- Leather blazers from $129 to $149
- Electric bicycles from $2,000 to $2,200
- Nylon suitcases from $470 to $529
- Garden tillers from $99 to $139

 

[Mecisteus]

Sold almost all my us stocks

Why panicking?

You should just ignore and have good night sleeps.

When the market is so volatile, those with faint hearts should ignore news like in this thread.

 

[theMKR]

re-entry TSLA short 205.5

exited liao i scared

 

[DukeCS33]

Trading: nature or nurture?

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/08/turtle-trading.asp

The turtle experiment shows that trading can be learnt and one can be taught to make exceptional amount of money. People with different types of personalities and background were picked and taught to trade and they were successful.

 

[Trader11]

Trading: nature or nurture?

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/08/turtle-trading.asp

The turtle experiment shows that trading can be learnt and one can be taught to make exceptional amount of money. People with different types of personalities and background were picked and taught to trade and they were successful.

But turtle failed in the end?

 

[DukeCS33]

Last night's price action was not overly volatile . There was an attempt to close the opening gap before resuming the downward trend. The S&P managed to lift above the lows.

The SP futures closed above the 2840 level and there was a lack of momentum to push it further down. I reckon we may see sideway movements from here with test of upside to see if there may be fresh supply for another push to the downside. 2800 remains the key support area.

My intraday trades have played out quite nicely as the volatility favours such scalps. The only stock that I am long beyond an intraday hold, managed to nudge up another 1% gain last night - not too bad considering the weight dragging down the major indices of late.

 

[DukeCS33]

But turtle failed in the end?

This was an excerpt from the article:

Did It Work?
According to former turtle Russell Sands, as a group, the two classes of turtles Dennis personally trained earned more than $175 million in only five years. Dennis had proved beyond a doubt that beginners can learn to trade successfully. Sands contends that the system still works well and said that if you started with $10,000 at the beginning of 2007 and followed the original turtle rules, you would have ended the year with $25,000.

Personally, I know of a few individuals who self taught themselves to trade. They have different background and personalities and have very different styles of trading. All of them did well enough to trade for a living... one went cold turkey - quit his job and started trading full time and making that transition almost instantaneously. Others learnt their craft and worked full time while traded part time - eventually they quit their full time jobs. The common factors amongst them was persistence and a hunger to succeed. None of them paid for a trainer but they had a fair amount of guidance from professionals that they know personally. Only one had no guidance but paid the market "tuition fees" initially before eventually becoming successful.

 

[klarklar]

This was an excerpt from the article:

Did It Work?
According to former turtle Russell Sands, as a group, the two classes of turtles Dennis personally trained earned more than $175 million in only five years. Dennis had proved beyond a doubt that beginners can learn to trade successfully. Sands contends that the system still works well and said that if you started with $10,000 at the beginning of 2007 and followed the original turtle rules, you would have ended the year with $25,000.

No doubt turtles method worked well during the 1970s when commodities boomed. I read some articles, listened to a few interviews that the method has deteriorated badly since 2008 financial crisis. Lazy to find the links but not hard to google.

The market is always evolving. No method can work forever, especially not those like turtles method which is known to the public. People will copy it to death.

 

[DukeCS33]

No doubt turtles method worked well during the 1970s when commodities boomed. I read some articles, listened to a few interviews that the method has deteriorated badly since 2008 financial crisis. Lazy to find the links but not hard to google.

The market is always evolving. No method can work forever, especially not those like turtles method which is known to the public. People will copy it to death.

Of course. The reason I flagged this out was to answer the question if trading can be taught or learnt or one needs to be a born trader since a certain troll has been asserting the later.

My experience has been that if one is serious about trading, it can be learnt. You just need to understand yourself and your inclination and master a style that suits. And if one is not prepared to put in the hard work and discipline, (you need not even talk about trading), he or she is not going to be very successful in whatever he or she does.

 

[klarklar]

This was an excerpt from the article:

Did It Work?
According to former turtle Russell Sands, as a group, the two classes of turtles Dennis personally trained earned more than $175 million in only five years. Dennis had proved beyond a doubt that beginners can learn to trade successfully. Sands contends that the system still works well and said that if you started with $10,000 at the beginning of 2007 and followed the original turtle rules, you would have ended the year with $25,000.

Personally, I know of a few individuals who self taught themselves to trade. They have different background and personalities and have very different styles of trading. All of them did well enough to trade for a living... one went cold turkey - quit his job and started trading full time and making that transition almost instantaneously. Others learnt their craft and worked full time while traded part time - eventually they quit their full time jobs. The common factors amongst them was persistence and a hunger to succeed. None of them paid for a trainer but they had a fair amount of guidance from professionals that they know personally. Only one had no guidance but paid the market "tuition fees" initially before eventually becoming successful.

Hi DukeCS33,

Good point about the self-taught traders. Their success is what pains me so much when I see people paying thousands for 2-3 days course conducted by trainers whose qualifications and track record are questionable. If the trainers are so good, they will be spending most of their time trading and not teaching. The truly great traders/investors are willing to teach when they are free but certainly they will not teach for a living because the time is better spent trading.

You are one of those who teach and share on this forum freely but earn good money through trading.

I do my part by participating in this thread to warn people of expensive training courses and outright scams.
https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/...orex-guru-trading-courses-market-5294637.html

 

[klarklar]

Of course. The reason I flagged this out was to answer the question if trading can be taught or learnt or one needs to be a born trader since a certain troll has been asserting the later.

My experience has been that if one is serious about trading, it can be learnt. You just need to understand yourself and your inclination and master a style that suits. And if one is not prepared to put in the hard work and discipline, (you need not even talk about trading), he or she is not going to be very successful in whatever he or she does.

My reply was actually not meant for you but for the other readers. I'm pretty sure you already know what I know. From your posts, I know you're a savvy market operator. I was adding extra information to your post for the other readers.

 

[theMKR]

No doubt turtles method worked well during the 1970s when commodities boomed. I read some articles, listened to a few interviews that the method has deteriorated badly since 2008 financial crisis. Lazy to find the links but not hard to google.

The market is always evolving. No method can work forever, especially not those like turtles method which is known to the public. People will copy it to death.

if everyone copied it to the death, wouldnt it be like come kind of large scale coordinated trading?

everyone wins rite?

 

[DukeCS33]

Hi DukeCS33,

Good point about the self-taught traders. Their success is what pains me so much when I see people paying thousands for 2-3 days course conducted by trainers whose qualifications and track record are questionable. If the trainers are so good, they will be spending most of their time trading and not teaching. The truly great traders/investors are willing to teach when they are free but certainly they will not teach for a living because the time is better spent trading.

You are one of those who teach and share on this forum freely but earn good money through trading.

I do my part by participating in this thread to warn people of expensive training courses and outright scams.
https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/...orex-guru-trading-courses-market-5294637.html

I do think that there are courses that are worth paying for but one needs to do his homework and make sure you get your monies' worth. The university lecturer in business may fail as an entrepreneur but that does not mean that what he teaches is not worth learning. Accounting, finance, economics are subjects that one needs to understand before being able to crunch numbers and ascertain if a stock is worth investing in.

There are however, too many scams out there. So if one is parting his money, one needs to do homework. Scams only succeed when you are too greedy or lazy and want to take the short cut.

 

[klarklar]

I do think that there are courses that are worth paying for but one needs to do his homework and make sure you get your monies' worth. The university lecturer in business may fail as an entrepreneur but that does not mean that what he teaches is not worth learning. Accounting, finance, economics are subjects that one needs to understand before being able to crunch numbers and ascertain if a stock is worth investing in.

There are however, too many scams out there. So if one is parting his money, one needs to do homework. Scams only succeed when you are too greedy or lazy and want to take the short cut.

It is very hard to find value-for-money courses that cost a few thousands for a few days. If qualified phd university lecturer charges at that ridiculous rate at our local universities, the student loan debt will crush our economy. The fees being charged are simply outrageous to be value-for-money. This is not to say the content is useless but knowledge can be gained through cheaper means like books and internet.

I don't mind paying thousands for a semester to learn Accounting, Finance, Economics. But to pay thousands for a few days to learn topics that take years to properly absorb, how much can one absorb within a few days really? I laugh at those students who pay thousands for 2-3 days course in value investing. They can't even properly value the course they are paying, how can they succeed in picking the right value stocks?

 

[DukeCS33]

The Markets would be on tenterhooks given the recent escalation by the US to blacklist Huawei. We already have a hint of what China may potentially do - stop business with suppliers who complies with the US orders to blacklist Huawei. But there is more that China can do and therein lies the crux - Can China devalue their currency by 20%? Would China sell off their UST holdings? Can the Chinese boycott American made goods and brands? Can China do something about American businesses supply chain? All these possibilities warn of potential flare up in volatility. Gauging the Market's current response across Rates, FX amd equities, I do think that the Market is too complacent. The Chinese reaction has the potential to set off a black swan event. Guess everyone is counting on the Chinese to be rationale and measured.... but you never know - just like we did not expect Trump to do a nuclear option on Huawei.

 

[revhappy]

The Markets would be on tenterhooks given the recent escalation by the US to blacklist Huawei. We already have a hint of what China may potentially do - stop business with suppliers who complies with the US orders to blacklist Huawei. But there is more that China can do and therein lies the crux - Can China devalue their currency by 20%? Would China sell off their UST holdings? Can the Chinese boycott American made goods and brands? Can China do something about American businesses supply chain? All these possibilities warn of potential flare up in volatility. Gauging the Market's current response across Rates, FX amd equities, I do think that the Market is too complacent. The Chinese reaction has the potential to set off a black swan event. Guess everyone is counting on the Chinese to be rationale and measured.... but you never know - just like we did not expect Trump to do a nuclear option on Huawei.

The most important thing is that China has still not said how it will retaliate. It could retaliate not just with words, but with a deep impact.

 

[DukeCS33]

The Markets would be on tenterhooks given the recent escalation by the US to blacklist Huawei. We already have a hint of what China may potentially do - stop business with suppliers who complies with the US orders to blacklist Huawei. But there is more that China can do and therein lies the crux - Can China devalue their currency by 20%? Would China sell off their UST holdings? Can the Chinese boycott American made goods and brands? Can China do something about American businesses supply chain? All these possibilities warn of potential flare up in volatility. Gauging the Market's current response across Rates, FX amd equities, I do think that the Market is too complacent. The Chinese reaction has the potential to set off a black swan event. Guess everyone is counting on the Chinese to be rationale and measured.... but you never know - just like we did not expect Trump to do a nuclear option on Huawei.

I have just watched this.... rare earth being weaponized by the Chinese? Looks like the Chinese has a nuclear option as well:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...bout-unwavering-resolve-to-fight-u-s-bullying

 

[Trader11]

I have just watched this.... rare earth being weaponized by the Chinese? Looks like the Chinese has a nuclear option as well:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...bout-unwavering-resolve-to-fight-u-s-bullying

The Chinese are way smarter than Donald Duck. So they will not do exactly like what Trumptard do. Instead, they will lay out strategies that will trap US into defeat in the future. So now it seems like Trumptard is winning, but in the long run, they are hurting themselves in the foot. China is a weiqi player while US is a chess player.

 

[coolhead]

The Chinese are way smarter than Donald Duck. So they will not do exactly like what Trumptard do. Instead, they will lay out strategies that will trap US into defeat in the future. So now it seems like Trumptard is winning, but in the long run, they are hurting themselves in the foot. China is a weiqi player while US is a chess player.

Aside the weiqi and chess analogy, I agree with your standpoint.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[limster]

I thought with all this bad news that my target price for 2800.HK would finally be reached, but when I logged in to check, it seems that both HK and China markets are up... only 10 more days left for the FSM free trades promotion and I still haven't bought anything yet