The bears den

revhappy

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https://ir.citi.com/0VFn8pAlSfp7EoVjjrGtOcEIwh5YkIFPxhvwGFme2f8uFGyEQyFbmdDzLbNMWvH3MCCNlSyF428=

Who follows Citi GPS?
I found it quite informative since using Ibkr to buy shares.
Say no to global shocks until 2027 or later, not good news as the timing is closer to our retirement.

I feel once Trump settle with Xi, things will go back to normal, some will say last year 20% drop was the big one, nasdaq was a bear market in fact! Have not able to buy back into Iwda below average price!

:s13:

I follow Nordea bank's research:
https://e-markets.nordea.com/#!/article/48952/week-ahead-killing-two-birds-with-one-tariff

How old are you? 2027 is only 8 more years.
 

revhappy

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qdZhhYJ.jpg
 

SBC

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Suspect volatility will continue to be high next week.
 

DukeCS33

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I had a good run picking bottoms, or trading counter trend. One of the techniques that I use is Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) The link attached explains one of the techniques to find out if smart money is picking the bottom and once you spot that, you may be able to ride on it for very good returns.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pjfzCLtw3M

The technique explained was played out in KO starting from the 14 Feb. Look at the chart and you would see a similarity based on the explanation of AAPL contained within the Video. That was a trade I took to good effect.

Often you may have read about how I read relative demand and supply... its all based on VSA techniques. Learn this and you would have added another dimension to your chart reading or technical analysis.
 
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focus1974

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GG market.

Full blown trade war inevitable now...

Think need to sell everything and buy back later...

scary...
 

DukeCS33

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Looking at the SP 500 futures, we see a marked increase in supply on 7 May where the range traded then was 2862 to 2930. One would expect fresh supply in this region. Last Friday we saw some selling... today, we may see another test of this region. If the supply is observed, then it may be harder for the SP futures to make any further ascent, and we may subsequently test the downside again. Last Friday's inside bar marks indecision.... volume was heavy which suggests that the bulls and bears are battling it out. I would prefer to stay clear and await a better indication from the market on the near term direction before establishing new positions. Having said that, I am already long on just one counter as there was an absence of supply near the recent test to the down side and at that same time, I was presented with a nice long technical setup.
 

revhappy

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Wow, what happened futures were positive, now became negative.
 

coolhead

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I had a good run picking bottoms, or trading counter trend. One of the techniques that I use is Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) The link attached explains one of the techniques to find out if smart money is picking the bottom and once you spot that, you may be able to ride on it for very good returns.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pjfzCLtw3M

The technique explained was played out in KO starting from the 14 Feb. Look at the chart and you would see a similarity based on the explanation of AAPL contained within the Video. That was a trade I took to good effect.

Often you may have read about how I read relative demand and supply... its all based on VSA techniques. Learn this and you would have added another dimension to your chart reading or technical analysis.

NPTN is a major casualty of the trade war as approx 40% of their revenue is derived from Huawei.

If based on VSA, after the stock drops below the 20-sma on 3rd may 2019, the selling pressure increased as there is no visible demand bars, does it mean to say there is no smart money buying into this? Hence, even if rsi is outrageously low at 13 now, it should not be bought right?
 

Trader11

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I follow advice of LKY on India.... Haha

In 2013, an IAS officer asked Lee if he could do to India what he did to Singapore.

Lee responded, “No single person can change India”, putting it down to the complexity created by its diverse culture and nature. India, Lee continued, “is diverse and therefore it has to work at its own speed.”

“As I grew up there are many different Indias and that stays true today. If you make the whole of India like a Bombay, then you get a different India,” Lee suggested pointing towards Mumbai’s ability to assimilate from across different backgrounds.

Lee even had a mantra for Indian politicians on good governance, “Integrity - absence of corruption, meritocracy - best people for the best job and a fair level playing field for everybody.”
 
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DukeCS33

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NPTN is a major casualty of the trade war as approx 40% of their revenue is derived from Huawei.

If based on VSA, after the stock drops below the 20-sma on 3rd may 2019, the selling pressure increased as there is no visible demand bars, does it mean to say there is no smart money buying into this? Hence, even if rsi is outrageously low at 13 now, it should not be bought right?

If I may offer an opinion...

Quite the contrary, I do see some signs of buying into this. The foot print is there.... A stock that has an average volume of some 800k shares per day transacts with volume 6 times its average for 2 candles, with long tails does suggest that there is some buying... how else the rally from the lows of the candles? (look at the hourly chart to see this) So the first signs of buying may have been spotted but whether it arrests the downside really depends on a lot of factors. Normally, I would like to look for a selling climax, observe if there is any signs of buying, observe if a retest of a level below the most recent low attracts more supply, or look for buying interest to come in before taking a countertrend trade. So from a selling climax, there may be signs of churning or buying and the long tail may be an indication of it... that is a starting point. The subsequent candles or bars should shed more light on the demand and supply situation at each price level and from there, see if a trade may be taken, or it may be redistribution before resumption of the downside.

Now on NPTN, there has been a prior background of distribution before this heavy sell off occurred. The sell off in Mar marked a bearish change in behaviour and that was the first warning sign, the divergence in buying volume in april was a second warning sign. So this stock was being readied for some serious marking down.

I do not use RSI. Generally, oscillators need to be used with care.... many people assume that when an oscillator hits very oversold levels, there may be a bounce... the reality can be the opposite where it stays in oversold condition for a long time before bouncing.... look at stocks that are trending very strongly... do u not see that rsi or any of the oscillators stay in overbought or oversold condition for a prolonged time?
 

DukeCS33

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hmmm looking at the chain of events, I cannot help but think that this trade war was merely a front for a tech war. The real objective of the US was to short circuit China's ambitions to be a tech global house. The Chinese probably saw though it and that was why they were playing a delay tactic, and trying to cushion their economy with borrowed time from stalling. This has the potential to drag on without any resolutions.
 

coolhead

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If I may offer an opinion...

Quite the contrary, I do see some signs of buying into this. The foot print is there.... A stock that has an average volume of some 800k shares per day transacts with volume 6 times its average for 2 candles, with long tails does suggest that there is some buying... how else the rally from the lows of the candles? (look at the hourly chart to see this) So the first signs of buying may have been spotted but whether it arrests the downside really depends on a lot of factors. Normally, I would like to look for a selling climax, observe if there is any signs of buying, observe if a retest of a level below the most recent low attracts more supply, or look for buying interest to come in before taking a countertrend trade. So from a selling climax, there may be signs of churning or buying and the long tail may be an indication of it... that is a starting point. The subsequent candles or bars should shed more light on the demand and supply situation at each price level and from there, see if a trade may be taken, or it may be redistribution before resumption of the downside.

Now on NPTN, there has been a prior background of distribution before this heavy sell off occurred. The sell off in Mar marked a bearish change in behaviour and that was the first warning sign, the divergence in buying volume in april was a second warning sign. So this stock was being readied for some serious marking down.

I do not use RSI. Generally, oscillators need to be used with care.... many people assume that when an oscillator hits very oversold levels, there may be a bounce... the reality can be the opposite where it stays in oversold condition for a long time before bouncing.... look at stocks that are trending very strongly... do u not see that rsi or any of the oscillators stay in overbought or oversold condition for a prolonged time?
Holy.... There's so much to digest from vsa....I'll need tonight to digest your info. Lol.

Awesome market is going down again.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT
 

coolhead

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hmmm looking at the chain of events, I cannot help but think that this trade war was merely a front for a tech war. The real objective of the US was to short circuit China's ambitions to be a tech global house. The Chinese probably saw though it and that was why they were playing a delay tactic, and trying to cushion their economy with borrowed time from stalling. This has the potential to drag on without any resolutions.
I honestly think it's a bad mistake on US part. China's tech companies aren't small and they do have financial muscle to pull thru it. They have shown to be capable to innovate better than US in some aspects such as 5G etc since the focal point is on Huawei.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT
 

DukeCS33

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2840 on the SP futures is a critical level for today. Europe is down and I guess that was the drag on SP futures. The US open may present a different story altogether - So I think its not a washed out as yet.

This being Monday, there would be orders that would be fulfilled in the first 30mins... any move would be due to this orders being executed... so the real market direction would happen only after that.
 
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DukeCS33

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Holy.... There's so much to digest from vsa....I'll need tonight to digest your info. Lol.

Awesome market is going down again.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

Not that easy to learn VSA. There are key principles to understand before starting on interpretation. And I recalled that when I first started, I did confuse myself quite a bit at trying to decipher things. It is quite unlike an indicator where there is a number that tells you higher or lower and one needs to practise at it for a long time before trying it for trading. Think not many people practise this here in Singapore.
I have recently tried to script this into my scanners so that it flags out ideal VSA trade setups. Still work in progress.
 

revhappy

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Lol, I love this. Let's see how long bulls can hold out for the long term.

sJ2StXv.jpg
 
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