The bears den

[DukeCS33]

The market has come off quite a fair bit and short of any headline news, I think we may see some profit taking and a bit of rebound in tonight's trading. Resistance in the SP futures is at 2825 and support at 2800. I would like to see a inside bar consolidation tonight before deciding on direction.... bias tonight is not so clear cut so I would be taking less position unless a technical setup interests me.

Do not forget that the US has yet to detail the additional tariffs on 300b of imports. If trump thinks that this is an effective leverage or axe over the Chinese, he would be in for a new lesson in Chinese way of thinking. This additional tariff can potentially torpedo the market.

 

[coolhead]

Many of these stocks have a strong correlation to their underlying (gold). If gold starts to rally they will also rally, and most times they lead the underlying. Gold saw a pop over last 2 days and currently around US$1300/oz. It has a strong resistance around US$1370/oz which it has attempted to break couple of time but failed. If it breaks this level, then there may be a bigger rally in the underlying and also these stocks.

I would typically look at the charts of these stocks and the underlying and accordingly decide to liquidate at different levels. Gold peaked at US$ 1920/oz, so we are still around 50% away from the peak with resistances at different levels. I would sell the stocks around these levels in 4 trances - 10%, 20%, 30% and final 40% of holdings.

I see, I do hope gold mining stocks are defensive during a downturn. Of course fundamentals must be good in case the gold mining company has cashflow/high gearing ratio. Also have to see the perceived inflation during a market downturn and measures by the fed..

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[churnmaster]

To be honest, I do not look at that long term technical analysis. The way I use technical analysis to trade is to look at the behaviour when it comes to a resistance and decide if it may hold or break. Take the most recent test - a break above the resistance should see a pick up in volume for a chance that this may happen. So my inclination was to sell as it approach this resistance as I see that the volume is waning... (actually I did not sell the resistance but I switch to intraday trading and squared off my swing positions)… generally, if a resistance were to break, there should be volume accompanying that thrust momentum. If there were volume backing it, I may still take profit first and then buy the break later if it occurs.
For now, the resistance has been tested 3 times prior and would make for a strong resistance. Except for last night, where we see a solid sell off with little evidence of bargain hunting, I suspect that the bargain hunters who tried to pick bottoms from 6th to 10th May may be caught. And once you have trapped buyers, the Resistance would be stronger. That said, I am looking for the downside to continue...(subject to headline news and comments trying to jawbone the markets higher) remember I was warning that the support could give way easily? We may see the same as that is a characteristic of a bear market.... people hit panic button and sell while potential buyers sit it out.
Based on some of the technical variables I monitor, selling volume has been very strong and marks a bearish change of behaviour.... there will be bargain hunters and technically driven rebound - I would be watching these rebounds and when they are weak, I would still short. Market may attempt to close the gap from last night before deciding if it wants to continue moving down thereafter... so from here, it would not be like last night where shorting was relatively easier.
Sorry I do not really do long term charting. My long term picks are based on fundamentals and short term technicals to pick an entry - hope the above helps.

Thanks. I was net long in Apr and liquidated some length selling into the rally towards the month end to go neutral. Turned very small net long on 6th after the drop and closed the same the very next day to go neutral. Net short from friday onwards and closed the shorts yesterday morning after the dip and now waiting for go short again. All for the SG mkt. US market just net short.

 

[MrHighlander]

STI recouped most of losses, US futures green, ridiculous

Apart from empty statement of I will meet Xi from trump, there’s nothing, not even China saying will meet

Over optimism still strong

 

[revhappy]

China indices closed in the red. So they don't seem to be buying Trump's optimism.

 

[MrHighlander]

Relatively muted drop I have to say

China indices closed in the red. So they don't seem to be buying Trump's optimism.

 

[DukeCS33]

China indices closed in the red. So they don't seem to be buying Trump's optimism.

Do not forget that the Chinese has a plunge protection team... could be them supporting the market. Then again, markets do not fall over that many consecutive days...

 

[revhappy]

The underlying bullishness in the market amazes me.
The top headline in bloomberg is this: 'US prepares to hit China with new tariffs'

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-as-trump-says-he-ll-meet-china-s-xi-jvn5hw67

Inspite of the looming tariffs people are taking glass half full approach. The news flow is terrible now compared to December, but the market action is so different.

 

[DukeCS33]

The underlying bullishness in the market amazes me.
The top headline in bloomberg is this: 'US prepares to hit China with new tariffs'

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-as-trump-says-he-ll-meet-china-s-xi-jvn5hw67

Inspite of the looming tariffs people are taking glass half full approach. The news flow is terrible now compared to December, but the market action is so different.

SP500 dropped some 2.8% last night... retracing by some 50% may not be unusual given that its some 5.4% lower than last week's peak. If it retraces all of yesterday's plunge than maybe it may raise some eyebrows and the bearish scenario may not play out. Do not forget that there is ample liquidity out there.... if things were so easy and linear, then the markets need not have any traders.

 

[d9_lives]

Not to mention...
revhappy, you aren't Singaporean.

FCS is Anti-Foreigner Stirring Sai in Singapore Cyberspaces

so classless...so shameless...
People with poor upbringing like you disgust me.

 

[churnmaster]

STI recouped most of losses, US futures green, ridiculous

Apart from empty statement of I will meet Xi from trump, there’s nothing, not even China saying will meet

Over optimism still strong

STI almost touched oversold level on the daily chart after the selloff over the last few days ... a bit of retracement to be expected. Just hoping markets remain volatile for few more weeks

 

[churnmaster]

SP500 dropped some 2.8% last night... retracing by some 50% may not be unusual given that its some 5.4% lower than last week's peak. If it retraces all of yesterday's plunge than maybe it may raise some eyebrows and the bearish scenario may not play out. Do not forget that there is ample liquidity out there.... if things were so easy and linear, then the markets need not have any traders.

Exactly, its the liquidity that provides the tailwind for this market despite having multiple headwinds like geopolitics, trade war, debt bubble, etc. My own belief is that the market will go sideways for a prolonged period of time after a small selloff.

 

[theMKR]

ok, i am going deep to long CRON position.

i still a bit bearish thou

 

[churnmaster]

China indices closed in the red. So they don't seem to be buying Trump's optimism.

China markets have their own sentiment and are mostly decoupled from the rest. But there are other markets (industrial metals & petrochemicals) which are strongly coupled to China market and track the sentiment in Shanghai Composite.

 

[Mecisteus]

Bear market rally?

Good chance for the bears to short.

 

[theMKR]

ok, i am going deep to long CRON position.

i still a bit bearish thou

actually fug this, i exited to free up some funds to short some else seems more fun

 

[tsipacse]

$BABA strong now, ahead of earnings announcement tomorrow

 

[DukeCS33]

$BABA strong now, ahead of earnings announcement tomorrow

I decided agst trading long BABA - did not like to scalp a stock that could not trade above pre market highs

 

[theMKR]

right after i exit long position and short, everything short up 3 dollar wtf

 

[Trader11]

Bear market rally?

Good chance for the bears to short.

Does Mike ever short the market?