The bears den

[focus1974]

Li Ka Shing still in HK right? But businesses globally diversified. At least he seem not scare & need to run overseas.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/li-ka-shing-has-already-left-china-behind-1521197253

Like i say... if u are still gonnna live there, u will need to have some assets there but diversified out into other assets not located inside the epicenter.

A lot of china tycoons did that thru mergers and acquisitions by leveraging on China's banking systme .. .and china put a stop to it...


For him, he was just selling out all his prized and valued HK and China properties and moving it to other countries' assets like power and infrastructure.

U can't expect him to do a all or nothing approach when you still have business dealings inside. But at least, his family has a fighting chance of flight to safety if ever anything happened.

I doubt most businessmen families are purely hongkies without foreign citizenships.


Even taiwan which is not in direct control by China , those who can afford will usually send their children abroad to get a foreign citizenship. If you study abroad before, you will know these kids.. and there are tons of them.

 

[redhotchillipadi]

what will happen to HSI now that hongkong reversed the bill?

 

[lightchaser]

bill paused, not reversed.

 

[DukeCS33]

Bears quoting the UST yield curve as a precursor to recession would be sorely disappointed. Looking at last week's data, there is just not any hint of recessions. Retail sales outperformed expectations and past numbers were revised higher. The various business surveys were also positive with Fed estimates for certain areas revised higher. So why is the fed funds rate pointing to a possibility of some 3 cuts for this year? 1 set of disappointing employment numbers cannot tell the tale alone... Powell has been ambiguous at best and playing to the market's tune to flag the possibility of a rate cut and of course the Bears conveniently look past his caveats for such an action.... Economic data would still be the key driver! And we had data that suggest that the economy is still on a relative strong footing. Forget the rest of the world that is mired in the doldrums and that we have trade issues that may potentially cause a massive slowdown.... We still have ample liquidity and the stark difference in relative economies mean that money is still going to make its way to the US markets.
So I think the headline trade issues will grab attention but I cannot think that it would be the cause of a recession that the market is currently pricing. I am still for a scenario of correction in equities but not a sell off that the curves are predicting. And I still think that the depressed yields in the longer end of the UST curve is due to Fed action and therefore interfering with the long end's predictive power.
So now it begs the question... Can the US go it alone with slowdown in Europe, japan and China made worse by trade and rising Middle East geo tensions?
From a technical perspective, the easing of the SP on the back of low volume suggests a correction rather than a sell off following the mini rally we had. Last Friday's price action suggest indecision and I guess the market is awaiting cues from a easing of trade tensions or fomc stance before deciding to push higher or take it lower. The more immediate price action may still be showing the characteristics of a waiting game.

 

[Trader11]

Oil might spike up. Don't be surprise if it reaches 100 because of Iran war

 

[revhappy]

 

[DukeCS33]

Oil might spike up. Don't be surprise if it reaches 100 because of Iran war

Good point. And higher oil prices will act as a tax on consumer and businesses while prompting Fed to hike rates to curb inflationary pressures.

 

[DukeCS33]

Add Beyond to this... ipo fever to me is just a symptom of the excessive liquidity in the system.

 

[DukeCS33]

Duke
Your Personality Traits aren't suitable for any trading & investment.

Confirm failed forever!
Trust FCS!
I never interpret wrongly!

Sent from FCS, Asia No.1 Pro Trader (FCS是，大中华，香港，日本， 南韩投资行业的赫赫知名人物! ) using GAGT

You are a joke. You got so many things wrong and claim you never interpret wrongly? So which other clone will you claim I am now?
Unlike you, I learn and ply my trade from a US investment bank while based on your postings, maybe it is true that you hail from Sesame Street.
It looks like the more you try to slime me, the more your jealousy shows. Such a proven failure - 493 times and counting. Lmao.

 

[atf0007]

sugarbun,
I highly suspect you Duke Clone!
Really, I gotten some insight!

Sent from FCS, Asia No.1 Pro Trader (FCS是，大中华，香港，日本， 南韩投资行业的赫赫知名人物! ) using GAGT

This is pure stoopidity... neber see anyone more proven a stoopid aszz like this one. People zhun one shot one kill, this stoopid aszz spray bullets all over and hit nothing.... everyone also claim is clone... wahahaa

Try to attack people and backfire ...show that he is jealous type himself... Attack people then kena back on ownself - this is call ownself shoot ownself…. then after that kena suan back as sesame street trader (this sesame street is I coin one... dun anyhow use use hor) what a stoopid aszz

 

[coolhead]

Stop feeding guys...

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[revhappy]

Wow! So many people want to get into finance careers

Record Number of Candidates Sit for CFA Exam This Weekend https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...r-of-candidates-sit-for-cfa-exam-this-weekend

 

[revhappy]

India will impose higher retaliatory tariffs on 28 U.S. products including almonds, apples and walnuts from Sunday, following Washington's withdrawal of key trade privileges for New Delhi.


https://www.investing.com/news/stoc...oods-from-sunday-government-statement-1898649

Lol! Everybody is targeting US farmers. This move by India should bring them closer to China- Russia-Iran axis. Even though until now, India needed US support to counter China. So this makes geopolitical equations very interesting. I am all for India, China and Russia getting closer to each other than fighting with each with each other for the US to take advantage.

 

[DukeCS33]

Wow! So many people want to get into finance careers

Record Number of Candidates Sit for CFA Exam This Weekend https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...r-of-candidates-sit-for-cfa-exam-this-weekend

There is a perception that this is where the big money is. I think the industry is getting disrupted so the money may well go as well. Money broking was big in the 80s but that industry crumbled when platforms from Reuters and Bloomberg facilitated direct dealings between counterparties.... finance would be going that way.

 

[lightchaser]

There is a perception that this is where the big money is. I think the industry is getting disrupted so the money may well go as well. Money broking was big in the 80s but that industry crumbled when platforms from Reuters and Bloomberg facilitated direct dealings between counterparties.... finance would be going that way.

agreed. IT is a better bet as now is the era of AI .

 

[revhappy]

 

[BBCWatcher]

India will impose higher retaliatory tariffs on 28 U.S. products including almonds, apples and walnuts from Sunday, following Washington's withdrawal of key trade privileges for New Delhi.

Lol! Everybody is targeting US farmers. This move by India should bring them closer to China-Russia-Iran axis. Even though until now, India needed US support to counter China. So this makes geopolitical equations very interesting. I am all for India, China and Russia getting closer to each other than fighting with each with each other for the US to take advantage.

Let's have at least a little perspective, OK?

India just lost some trade preferences, i.e. the United States has decided to return India to standard trade treatment. I'm highly confident the U.S. Trade Representative would be happy to receive a phone call from his Indian counterpart if India would like to discuss seriously a mutually beneficial free trade agreement -- which would involve a lot of India opening up its now rather closed markets.

Unlike China, the United States has never engaged in military hostilities against India. Nor is the United States jointly developing and deploying a new fighter jet with Pakistan. Relations between the United States and India are relatively cordial and extremely more friendly, despite recent trade bluster.

Finally, the tariffs India has added were already mostly announced a year ago but held "in reserve." India subtracted from that year ago tariff schedule slightly in announcing this latest move. Tariffs are paid by Indian domestic consumers, so these are taxes on Indians. The impact on U.S. producers will be imperceptible in macroeconomic terms. U.S. apple growers, for example, already weren't sending many apples to India. Now they'll send somewhat fewer than those negligible quantities. Or they can send them as jars of applesauce (for example), a different product under trade and tariff rules.

 

[revhappy]

Let's have at least a little perspective, OK?

India just lost some trade preferences, i.e. the United States has decided to return India to standard trade treatment. I'm highly confident the U.S. Trade Representative would be happy to receive a phone call from his Indian counterpart if India would like to discuss seriously a mutually beneficial free trade agreement -- which would involve a lot of India opening up its now rather closed markets.

Unlike China, the United States has never engaged in military hostilities against India. Nor is the United States jointly developing and deploying a new fighter jet with Pakistan. Relations between the United States and India are relatively cordial and extremely more friendly, despite recent trade bluster.

Finally, the tariffs India has added were already mostly announced a year ago but held "in reserve." India subtracted from that year ago tariff schedule slightly in announcing this latest move. Tariffs are paid by Indian domestic consumers, so these are taxes on Indians. The impact on U.S. producers will be imperceptible in macroeconomic terms. U.S. apple growers, for example, already weren't sending many apples to India. Now they'll send somewhat fewer than those negligible quantities. Or they can send them as jars of applesauce (for example), a different product under trade and tariff rules.

I know, this is more about optics. BTW, Indian markets are not closed, they are very open. Amazon is huge in India, so is Honda, Toyota, Visa, Coke, MC Donald's and ofcourse Microsoft, Google, Apple and Xiaomi.

 

[BBCWatcher]

BTW, Indian markets are not closed, they are very open.

India levies tariffs ranging from 60 to 75 percent on imported automobiles and motorcycles (including U.S. made vehicles such as Jeeps and Harleys), 100 percent on raisins (a major California product), 100 percent on coffee, 150 percent on alcoholic beverages (such as Kentucky bourbon and California wines), and as much as 300 percent on textiles, which indirectly impacts U.S. cotton growers in particular. Even pharmaceuticals are up around 20 percent typically.

Amazon is huge in India, so is Honda, Toyota, Visa, Coke, MC Donald's and ofcourse Microsoft, Google, Apple and Xiaomi.

Foreign direct investment is allowed, in certain ways anyway. Funny you mention Apple since their struggles in India — including with high tariffs and a protectionist retail sector — are widely reported and well documented. Apple has been blocked from opening any of its iconic Apple Stores in India, for example. McDonald’s is another funny example. U.S. cattle ranchers aren’t exporting any beef to India’s McDonald’s restaurants, and even Idaho potato growers are mostly shut out. (India maintains high tariffs on agricultural imports, especially on staple crops such as legumes. The U.S. and Canada, in particular, would export a great deal more to India if not for those high tariffs.)

The U.S. Trade Representative has been agitating for a better deal with India for many years, way before Trump was elected.

Which is not to say that I would defend U.S. tariff and trade policies in their entirety, but the U.S. does have a reasonable point of view when it comes to India and its trade barriers. Hopefully these governments can get serious about striking a decent or better trade agreement.

 

[revhappy]

#BREAKING US President Trump to discuss Hong Kong protests with Xi at G20: Pompeo

Good way to start trade negotiations