The bears den

[coolhead]

Draghi is pumping US futures right now.

Not sure what he said but if based on gold action, the us futures pump should be short lived.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[DukeCS33]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...easing-firmly-on-the-table-idUSKCN1TJ0OX?il=0

ECB is turning on the liquidity pump and this is going to stroke risk sentiments further. Now the market would be looking to the Fed to follow suit come Thurs. Even if this is not affirmed by the Fed, some light hint to ease may also stroke risk on sentiments further.

So we may now have some fragmentation in the markets in terms of correlation play - Bonds are increasingly being driven by supply and demand and less reflective of being a predictor of recession. Equity markets are being driven by excess liquidity and all the passive ETF investments while currencies / gold dictated by relative interest rate expectations and official intervention. Those looking at correlation and one variable being a lead for other markets may need to thread with care.

 

[Mecisteus]

After beaten down, I think US biotechs are likely to rebound hard.

Vested but no further positions added.

 

[Mecisteus]

One year can save S$3000 worth of " trading commission".

I think the annual pass is cheaper if you are a HC gambler.

 

[BBCWatcher]

Americans work like crazy don't take holidays...

No, not according to the available data. The United States doesn't even crack the top 10 within the OECD by this measure. According to the OECD, individuals who are employed in the U.S. work an average of 1,780 hours per year. #10 on the OECD list is Portugal (1,863 hours per year on average), and #1 is Mexico (2,257).

...and their entire paycheck goes in expenses and they will never be able to retire.

Again, the available data suggest otherwise. Let's look at two important numbers. First, the current (2019) average U.S. Social Security retirement benefit is US$1,461 per month. That's almost identical to what the future (age 65, Standard Plan) Enhanced Retirement Sum CPF LIFE monthly benefit would be for somebody who has the ERS in his/her CPF Retirement Account at age 55 today, which is not very common in Singapore. Moreover, the U.S. benefit is adjusted annually for inflation, and the cost of living in the U.S. is generally lower. And there's a spousal benefit in U.S. Social Security which has no counterpart in CPF.

So that's the government sponsored system with practically universal participation (including legal residents), and it's comparatively more generous. Now let's look at private retirement savings. There are about 100 million Americans (out of a population of about 320 million, which includes children and young adults) who have 401(k)s and IRAs. The total value is US$7.5 trillion, a figure which has grown quite robustly over the years. The median account value for somebody age 65 today is a little over US$58,000. That's not a huge number, but it would easily add at least US$250/month to a retiree's income above Social Security. (That's assuming age 65 retirement and 20 years -- 240 months -- of drawdown. Also assuming zero income tax, but that's a pretty reasonable assumption at this level of total retirement income.)

If you also look at rates of poverty in the U.S., the elder cohort (age 65 and over) is comparatively doing well. That's not to say there's no elder poverty -- there is some -- but, as a cohort, senior Americans are doing well comparatively and historically.

I wonder if you call this developed and wealthy.

Yes, the data suggest those are fair descriptions of the United States. Wealth inequality is a significant and growing problem in the U.S., but that's true practically everywhere, including in Singapore.

 

[revhappy]

 

[Mr.Canberra]

I think the annual pass is cheaper if you are a HC gambler.

The annual casino entry levy has raised to S$3000 from S$2000 for citizens and PRs since 04/04/2019.

S$3000 is sup sup suey for hardcore gamblers. 1 bet can easily recover back.

 

[Mecisteus]

So any bears who have switched allegiance and joined the bulls recently?

sigh I thought I can manage to add more positions if S&P is able to touch the December 2018 lows again.

 

[Dividends Warrior]

More political theater!

 

[BeHappyLo]

More political theater!

at last there is confirmation of a meeting..................talk better than no talk.

 

[Mecisteus]

at last there is confirmation of a meeting..................talk better than no talk.

This one is a no brainer lah.

It is in the interests of both leaders to do something to resolve the trade differences.

I already mentioned the trade war is more negative to China.

Foxconn can shift their operations out of China. Samsung is already out of China.

https://www.techinasia.com/samsungs-close-china-smartphone-factory

 

[focus1974]

at last there is confirmation of a meeting..................talk better than no talk.

if the prior meeting dont work out ... Xi might cancel the meeting..

that is the scary part.

 

[SBC]

Siao liao, no bear 2nite.

 

[Mecisteus]

Siao liao, no bear 2nite.

The bears already capitulated.

I really don't understand why would anyone stay out of the market or become a short term bear.

Just look at some of the statistics for S&P500.

"Rally" days outnumber correction days 2.55-to-1 since 1950

Big up days occur within two weeks of big down days 60% of the time

Long-term investors are a perfect 37-for-37 since 1950

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/05/14/6-stock-market-plunge-statistics-you-need-to-know.aspx

 

[revhappy]

The bears already capitulated.

I really don't understand why would anyone stay out of the market or become a short term bear.

Just look at some of the statistics for S&P500.

"Rally" days outnumber correction days 2.55-to-1 since 1950

Big up days occur within two weeks of big down days 60% of the time

Long-term investors are a perfect 37-for-37 since 1950

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/05/14/6-stock-market-plunge-statistics-you-need-to-know.aspx

Exactly for the reasons you mentioned.

 

[revhappy]

Hang Seng Index futures are up 3%, WTF!!!

 

[FrostWurm]

at last there is confirmation of a meeting..................talk better than no talk.

I think the markets don't listen too much to this idiot already

 

[Trader11]

The bears already capitulated.

I really don't understand why would anyone stay out of the market or become a short term bear.

Just look at some of the statistics for S&P500.

"Rally" days outnumber correction days 2.55-to-1 since 1950

Big up days occur within two weeks of big down days 60% of the time

Long-term investors are a perfect 37-for-37 since 1950

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/05/14/6-stock-market-plunge-statistics-you-need-to-know.aspx

Everytime there is correction, some bear will come spread fear. Remember Trump 2016? Bears got killed. Every year, new bears are bornt.

 

[dilphinus]

i think so too, i going to just dump everything into short bynd now 184.5. all or nth liao.

lucky i started small lol.

ok la, actually not small. i wanted to try like 10k sgd, but ikbr dun allow

169 down. Finally red!

 

[theMKR]

One year can save S$3000 worth of " trading commission".

now that u mentioned it. i think my commission to ibkr can buy the annual pass liao

and i started in march 2019....