The bears den

[wutawa]

Welcome back!
Somebody said you got banned after posting in Shiny Things Club thread, is this true?
They so jealous of you & want to ban you from posting there in that thread?

Opps, he got banned again.

 

[limster]

I know, this is more about optics. BTW, Indian markets are not closed, they are very open. Amazon is huge in India, so is Honda, Toyota, Visa, Coke, MC Donald's and ofcourse Microsoft, Google, Apple and Xiaomi.

India: Trade barriers
https://www.export.gov/article?id=India-Trade-Barriers


Take a look at pharma for example - 75% local content required if you want to participate in govt procurement now and increasing (not decreasing) to 90% in the future!

https://www.in-pharmatechnologist.com/Article/2019/01/02/India-requires-75-domestic-content-to-drugs

 

[revhappy]

India: Trade barriers
https://www.export.gov/article?id=India-Trade-Barriers


Take a look at pharma for example - 75% local content required if you want to participate in govt procurement now and increasing (not decreasing) to 90% in the future!

https://www.in-pharmatechnologist.com/Article/2019/01/02/India-requires-75-domestic-content-to-drugs

Hmm, they want companies to manufacture in India and create local employment. I think that is fair. In any case cost of manufacturing is one of the lowest in India, so I don't think that is a significant barrier for companies wanting to sell in Indian markets.

Even then, most consumer stuff we get in India is made in China and it is cheap. Stuff like Mobile phones, laptops etc are cheaper in India than in Singapore.

Actually I can't think of anything in Singapore that is cheaper to buy than in India. So if indeed tariffs were that high and since SG has no tariffs, it would have been cheaper to buy something in Singapore than in India.

Most of India's economic think tank want to export more and reduce their current account deficit. So I don't see any more opening up than what already is.

 

[SBC]

What’s the play 2mrw? Suspect STI will open -10 to -20 points.

 

[BBCWatcher]

Hmm, they want companies to manufacture in India and create local employment. I think that is fair.

Whatever it is, it’s not an open market with free trade.

In any case cost of manufacturing is one of the lowest in India, so I don't think that is a significant barrier for companies wanting to sell in Indian markets.

Of course it is a barrier. Many supply chains practically and actually don’t exist in India. And there are gobs of high value manufactured products that might otherwise sell in small quantities in India that are slapped with tariffs. You’re not going to move a billion dollar or more assembly plant to India with all attendant risks in order to sell 5 more units a year, maybe.

Even then, most consumer stuff we get in India is made in China and it is cheap. Stuff like Mobile phones, laptops etc are cheaper in India than in Singapore.

Not the ones actually made in China, such as most iPhones. (The Indian assembled version of the iPhone SE was an exception.) The stuff that can be imported in notionally unassembled form then slapped/snapped together in Chennai (or wherever) is a different story.

You’re now making a lot of excuses for what clearly isn’t a market open to free trade. Which is not how I’d describe the U.S. economy either — there are some U.S. trade barriers — but this is what these two governments ought to be discussing, negotiating, and mostly eliminating if they want a free trade agreement. But maybe the Indian government doesn’t want a free trade agreement. We’ll see.

Actually I can't think of anything in Singapore that is cheaper to buy than in India. So if indeed tariffs were that high and since SG has no tariffs, it would have been cheaper to buy something in Singapore than in India.

Practically everything manufactured in the U.S. with at least some reasonable value added is less expensive in Singapore. Singapore and the U.S. have a rather comprehensive free trade agreement.

Just to pick an example among consumer products, a KitchenAid Artisan stand mixer costs less at Tangs Orchard Road right now than it does from Amazon.in. That’s the beloved, U.S. manufactured small kitchen appliance. (It’s 39,990 INR v. 749 SGD.)

Most of India's economic think tank want to export more and reduce their current account deficit. So I don't see any more opening up than what already is.

Then you shouldn’t be surprised that the U.S. is among the governments losing patience with India and not willing to cooperate with continued trade restrictions. This is how trade battles and wars start and grow. The U.S. side thinks India is treating U.S. exporters unfairly, and in this case the U.S. side is correct.

It’s also correct that the U.S. isn’t currently going to be damaged very much. When you’re already not importing much from U.S. producers there’s not much more damage you can inflict with additional tariffs and barriers on top of already difficult tariffs and barriers, except to your own consumers who happen to like California almonds (for example) — and almonds do feature in Indian cuisine. The U.S. is by far the world’s largest almond producer, with about 10 times the output of #2 Spain.

 

[revhappy]

I think the biggest trump card US has over India is the tech outsourcing industry and H1B visas. I have a feeling Trump will use this card to drum up support from his base sometime next year going into the elections.

 

[SpinFire]

#BREAKING US President Trump to discuss Hong Kong protests with Xi at G20: Pompeo

Good way to start trade negotiations

Trump finally secured his date with Xi

 

[Trader11]

#BREAKING US President Trump to discuss Hong Kong protests with Xi at G20: Pompeo

Good way to start trade negotiations

CIA funded protest???

 

[BeHappyLo]

Trump finally secured his date with Xi

Not true...,, read Pompeo’s English properly.

 

[BBCWatcher]

I think the biggest trump card US has over India is the tech outsourcing industry and H1B visas. I have a feeling Trump will use this card to drum up support from his base sometime next year going into the elections.

Yes, plus the Trump Administration could make what is already a difficult, tenuous leap from H-1B to permanent residence to citizenship even more difficult and tenuous. The Trump Administration is already working on denying employment authorizations for H-4 visa holders (the spouses of H-1B visa holders), so the knives are out and well sharpened.

If President Trump had had his way years earlier (and as an example), the CEO of Microsoft, Satya Nadella, probably wouldn't even be in the U.S. today. Microsoft was recently, briefly, the world's #1 most valuable publicly traded company and is routinely in the top 3 (with Apple and Amazon). Nadella gets a lot of credit for that.

In contrast, Singapore has a free trade agreement, and Singaporeans enjoy U.S. H-1B1 visa privileges, which are quite special. That extra "1" at the end makes a huge difference.

 

[churnmaster]

Wow! Good discussion going on ... like it

 

[churnmaster]

Let's have at least a little perspective, OK?

India just lost some trade preferences, i.e. the United States has decided to return India to standard trade treatment. I'm highly confident the U.S. Trade Representative would be happy to receive a phone call from his Indian counterpart if India would like to discuss seriously a mutually beneficial free trade agreement -- which would involve a lot of India opening up its now rather closed markets.

Unlike China, the United States has never engaged in military hostilities against India. Nor is the United States jointly developing and deploying a new fighter jet with Pakistan. Relations between the United States and India are relatively cordial and extremely more friendly, despite recent trade bluster.

Finally, the tariffs India has added were already mostly announced a year ago but held "in reserve." India subtracted from that year ago tariff schedule slightly in announcing this latest move. Tariffs are paid by Indian domestic consumers, so these are taxes on Indians. The impact on U.S. producers will be imperceptible in macroeconomic terms. U.S. apple growers, for example, already weren't sending many apples to India. Now they'll send somewhat fewer than those negligible quantities. Or they can send them as jars of applesauce (for example), a different product under trade and tariff rules.

Yes, I agree with you. Looking at the list of items, this tariff increase by India only seems symbolic and doesn't really affect much.

Btw, looking at US's trade deficit issue with various nations, which was the starting point for this trade war (tariff barriers), US should actually look at either import substitution (which it did in one area ,energy over the last decade) or bring down its consumption which would in turn bring down its imports of various goods.

It's insane to blame others for your consumption habits and poor financial health. A population which is roughly about 4.5% of world population consumes almost 20% of various goods, many of which are imported and adds to the deficit. Just correct that situation.

Increasing tariffs helps in correcting that situation to some extent by reducing consumption as goods become more expensive and also incentivizing domestic producers to raise capacity and meet demand. However, differential tariffs where a particular stuff from one nation attracts higher tariff while the same stuff from another nation attracts lower tariff, doesn't really help in reducing overall trade deficit for the importing nation.

 

[Mecisteus]

Wow! Good discussion going on ... like it

Those are more macroeconomics and political news.

As a retail investor, you are better off focusing on the microeconomics of the companies if you want to do stock picking.

If you prefer the passive ways, then just stick to the usual ETFs recommended in this forum.

 

[Mecisteus]

It's insane to blame others for your consumption habits and poor financial health. A population which is roughly about 4.5% of world population consumes almost 20% of various goods, many of which are imported and adds to the deficit. Just correct that situation.

Isn't this the expected characteristic of a developed and wealthy country?

 

[revhappy]

Isn't this the expected characteristic of a developed and wealthy country?

4 out of 5 US workers live paycheck to paycheck

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/09/shu...n-5-us-workers-live-paycheck-to-paycheck.html

Do Americans really feel developed and wealthy?

40% of Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense

https://money.cnn.com/2018/05/22/pf/emergency-expenses-household-finances/index.html

 

[NewInvestor]

My Facebook shares made so much money tonight. It is my largest US holdings.

 

[eD1s0n]

4 out of 5 US workers live paycheck to paycheck

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/09/shu...n-5-us-workers-live-paycheck-to-paycheck.html

Do Americans really feel developed and wealthy?

40% of Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense

https://money.cnn.com/2018/05/22/pf/emergency-expenses-household-finances/index.html

country is not the same as individual
tbh this kind of spending habit is better for the economy because money circulates.
Its difficult for businesses to grow if everyone aim for high savings and don't spend.

 

[Mecisteus]

My Facebook shares made so much money tonight. It is my largest US holdings.

Congrats. 6/6 of my stocks are green.

 

[Mecisteus]

4 out of 5 US workers live paycheck to paycheck

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/09/shu...n-5-us-workers-live-paycheck-to-paycheck.html

Do Americans really feel developed and wealthy?

40% of Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense

https://money.cnn.com/2018/05/22/pf/emergency-expenses-household-finances/index.html

The statistics could be worse in the developing countries.

 

[BBCWatcher]

Looking at the list of items, this tariff increase by India only seems symbolic and doesn't really affect much.

Agreed.

It's insane to blame others for your consumption habits and poor financial health.

I don't think the U.S. government is blaming anybody for its "poor financial health." The U.S. is doing just fine at the moment. True, it'd be nice at this point in time in the business cycle if federal tax revenues were higher (and more progressively levied), but I'd much rather be in the United States' situation than, as one example, Japan's.

A population which is roughly about 4.5% of world population consumes almost 20% of various goods, many of which are imported and adds to the deficit. Just correct that situation.

That's the wrong percentage to pick, except perhaps for ecological concerns. (See below.) In terms of global shares, U.S. GDP and U.S. consumption are approximately equal.

Isn't this the expected characteristic of a developed and wealthy country?

Exactly.

Its difficult for businesses to grow if everyone aim for high savings and don't spend.

Japan is a great example.