The bears den

[NewInvestor]

Is the bear market over already? Dang!

 

[MrHighlander]

Bear trap

China party media today vow People War

Is the bear market over already? Dang!

 

[revhappy]

Bear trap

China party media today vow People War

Trump is playing this clever game of wanting to keep the cake and eat it too. He wants to talk tough with China and raise tariffs and at the same time, he talks up the markets and the algos latch on to his tweets.

It looks like bears have to throw in the towel now. Markets are going back up. The trade war catalyst is not enough to drop the markets. Maybe something else will along down the line.

 

[MrHighlander]

Actually concur - trump is actually really smart

I still recall Obama comment after meeting trump for first time as president-elect - Obama say he is very practical

Trump is playing this clever game of wanting to keep the cake and eat it too. He wants to talk tough with China and raise tariffs and at the same time, he talks up the markets and the algos latch on to his tweets.

It looks like bears have to throw in the towel now. Markets are going back up. The trade war catalyst is not enough to drop the markets. Maybe something else will along down the line.

 

[blue_denim24]

Trump pump is back on the table. It's seems, He won't let the markets come down during his presidency

 

[DukeCS33]

Trump is playing this clever game of wanting to keep the cake and eat it too. He wants to talk tough with China and raise tariffs and at the same time, he talks up the markets and the algos latch on to his tweets.

It looks like bears have to throw in the towel now. Markets are going back up. The trade war catalyst is not enough to drop the markets. Maybe something else will along down the line.

Markets do not move linearly... when it gets oversold, some rebound is expected. There was a big gap down and if one studies technical, gaps would at some stage get covered unless it is a runaway gap. So I would not be surprised if the gap down on Monday gets covered. The key question would be if the downside move may continue. You have said it before... bear markets are characterised by dead cat bounces. So have you the conviction to continue to stay the course?

For me, I see this bounce up as a means to load up some shorts - the targets would be dow component stocks most affected by the trade war. My view is that the Markets would be discerning enough to pick the winners from the losers.... those which may be impact would languish while those not affected may be bought..... There are quite a few swing short candidates that I see this morning and I am readying to short. At this juncture, Trump is softening his tone but that does not mean that ideological differences - which was the main reason for the recent tit for tat tariffs increase can be resolved. The markets have been strung for so long by Trump's tweets that things are going well when in fact nothing has progressed... all this while, the Chinese has been readying themselves for a protracted trade war with massive stimulus to cushion the economy.... given this, will the Markets continue to give Trump's tweets the benefit of the doubt and we see another rally? If last night's price action is any indication, and if you believe that the amateurs did the open, the professionals close it... what is the price action telling us? The overnight bounce was with a volume that is about 40% less than the volume that saw the sell off prior... Was the market showing any conviction in this bounce or it was a technically driven bounce? Trump will not be doing his job if he does not talk up the market... if one is not sure and does not want to get whipsawed, then trade intraday or very short term but stick to your trading plan. If you have none, sit back and relax. There is money to be made only if one sees the opportunity.

 

[d9_lives]

Trump has again managed to bluff the markets. US futures up 0.5% and China indices are turning positive.

I guess, Trump will now continue pumping up the markets until next 1 month and the dumb bulls will continue buying.

Plot twist: market timers are the dumb ones.
People who buy regularly regardless of the headlines are not dumb, they are....investors.

There're 2 more likely scenarios that will happen:
1. You will eat your words and enter anyway eventhough S&P is well above 2k or 2.5k.
2. You'll find another story and paint it as the potential cause of market -20/-30%.

 

[DukeCS33]

2. You'll find another story and paint it as the potential cause of market -20/-30%.

There will always be another story to suit one's views. That is called confirmation bias.

 

[revhappy]

Thanks Duke, Nice explanation. The reason I am sceptical of deep market fall from here, is that the worst case scenario has been played out. From awesome deal to trade war is on. Even the additional 25% of remaining 300bn is known now. So on this particular event the bulls are not spooked enough. But I see your point, that this may have not yet played out fully.

In the medium term I am still bearish, end of the year we should be lower than where we are with the sugar high from the tax cuts impact gone and this new tariff related taxes and strong dollar hitting earnings.

 

[revhappy]

Gundlach Says Weakness Appearing in U.S. Economic Indicators https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ness-is-showing-up-in-u-s-economic-indicators

 

[Mecisteus]

Its fun to read all the bear news.

I am so numb and my mind is still psychologically strong.

 

[d9_lives]

There will always be another story to suit one's views. That is called confirmation bias.

Yep, too fixated on doom and gloom.
Don't ignore the positive factors too.

You people sound like Harold Camping.

 

[DukeCS33]

Yep, too fixated on doom and gloom.
Don't ignore the positive factors too.

You people sound like Harold Camping.

That's what makes a market. Bull vs bear. The price decides the winner.

 

[Mecisteus]

That's what makes a market. Bull vs bear. The price decides the winner.

Long term investors are the REAL winners.

Short term traders will get slaughtered.

Oh, people who sell courses and books are winners too.

Add on: Zerohedge, brokers, banks are winners too.

 

[DukeCS33]

Long term investors are the REAL winners.

Short term traders will get slaughtered.

Oh, people who sell courses and books are winners too.

Add on: Zerohedge, brokers, banks are winners too.

Assuming that long term investors have the right stock picks or buy into etfs… I have seen enough long term investors losing monies thru indiv stock picks.

Short term traders that lack trading skillset get slaughtered.

So there are two sides to it - depends on where your confirmation bias currently stand.

 

[DukeCS33]

Thanks Duke, Nice explanation. The reason I am sceptical of deep market fall from here, is that the worst case scenario has been played out. From awesome deal to trade war is on. Even the additional 25% of remaining 300bn is known now. So on this particular event the bulls are not spooked enough. But I see your point, that this may have not yet played out fully.

In the medium term I am still bearish, end of the year we should be lower than where we are with the sugar high from the tax cuts impact gone and this new tariff related taxes and strong dollar hitting earnings.

The SP was bouncing off a very strong key support zone yesterday - 2800 / 2820. This was the level that was the last resistance (turned support) that was tested 3 times before breaking above and is a key pivot area. For the SP to make for further downside, this level needs to be broken through in a convincing manner.

 

[theMKR]

wah lost big on shorting, should have just held CRON all the way lolx

 

[focus1974]

Long term investors are the REAL winners.

Short term traders will get slaughtered.

Oh, people who sell courses and books are winners too.

Add on: Zerohedge, brokers, banks are winners too.

A lot of stocks go to zero or below ur cost price before it gets privatised or delisted.

 

[d9_lives]

Its fun to read all the bear news.

I am so numb and my mind is still psychologically strong.

almost every year -> This is is it! Bull is done, we're entering bear, this crash/crisis is going to be greater than...n bla3x...

Fearmongers will keep drumming it and the weak willed get sucked in, capitulate or sidelined...
It's amusing...how/why are they so sure? They can even put the number, -20% or -30% by xxxx lol...
The truth is...nobody knows. Not even the "experts".
Will today's high be the future low? We don't know either.
Don't waste too much of your time.
Life is too short.
If it crashes, great! We get to buy on discount.

 

[MrHighlander]

Every major Asia index (including Kospi) up. This is despite China data dump well below analyst estimates.
FOMO is going strong