The bears den

[Merg91]

Did he get it right only once but wrong 10x before?

Roubini just called a 2020 recession

Hmm

 

[limster]

Roubini just called a 2020 recession

Hmm

In 2018 and early 2019, the bears post links to 'experts' saying there will be recession in 2019.

In middle of 2019, bears change tack and post links to different 'experts' saying there will be recession in 2020....

In 2020... will bears post links to different experts saying recession in 2021?

 

[awful999]

In 2018 and early 2019, the bears post links to 'experts' saying there will be recession in 2019.

In middle of 2019, bears change tack and post links to different 'experts' saying there will be recession in 2020....

In 2020... will bears post links to different experts saying recession in 2021?

one day the bear will be right, just like the ADMK expert Mr Jim

 

[coolhead]

It's the end?

It means the effect of the G20 news are starting to fade away.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[Dividends Warrior]

In 2018 and early 2019, the bears post links to 'experts' saying there will be recession in 2019.

In middle of 2019, bears change tack and post links to different 'experts' saying there will be recession in 2020....

In 2020... will bears post links to different experts saying recession in 2021?

Best example was in 2016, everyone was saying recession in 2017 bcos of Trump and Brexit. Turned out 2017 was a super bullish year.

 

[limster]

Hi limster, why wqdv and not vyhd? Vanguard version have lower ter, more holdings, bigger fund size, higher average volume,and even lesser exposure to US.

Dividends etf is underperforming iwda from may13 to jun19, so how? Do you forsee the sputtering end for growth stocks, moving to blue chip in the mid term?

I initiated my position in WQDV in Jan 2019 after many years of underperformance vs the tech-heavier IWDA, I prefer to be contrarian, and I am also happy to own many of WQDV's top components.

%-wise, WQDV bid-offer spread much smaller than VHYD's bid-offer spread. The same can be said about other vanguard vs iShares ETFs like VDCP vs LQDE.

Vanguard, iShares, I am happy to own both, on one month I might pick Vanguard, another time, I might pick iShares. Or might I just queue for both at the mid-point of bid-offer and see which one is filled first, because that might be the true test of liquidity and volume

 

[revhappy]

Best example was in 2016, everyone was saying recession in 2017 bcos of Trump and Brexit. Turned out 2017 was a super bullish year.

Recession is good. It cleans up all the excesses. 2017 was a sugar high due to massive tax cuts. The more you try to prolong the cycle with stimulus, the more addicted the economy gets. Finally there won't any more impact of more stimulus.

Just look at the amount of negative yielding bonds. We are in a massive slowdown if not outright recession. If you think the Fed and the govt can forever keep inflating the bubble, that is not true.

 

[d9_lives]

Do you think revhappy will sit on the sidelines forever?

 

[Dividends Warrior]

Recession is good. It cleans up all the excesses. 2017 was a sugar high due to massive tax cuts. The more you try to prolong the cycle with stimulus, the more addicted the economy gets. Finally there won't any more impact of more stimulus.

Just look at the amount of negative yielding bonds. We are in a massive slowdown if not outright recession. If you think the Fed and the govt can forever keep inflating the bubble, that is not true.

I agree. The major central banks around the world don't have much monetary wriggle room left. We are in a global slowdown for sure. Singapore is in a technical recession.
When the next crisis hits, cutting 2.5% to 0% won't have a big impact anymore. Some countries like Japan & Germany will need to go deeper into negative rates. It is kinda bleak. But not hopeless, as long as they dun allow a mega financial institute to fail like Lehman Brothers again.

 

[Dividends Warrior]

Do you think revhappy will sit on the sidelines forever?

Possible. Until his children inherit his wealth and invest like crazy.
Saving up a huge cash hoard for your children to invest is not the worst idea actually.

 

[eD1s0n]

Possible. Until his children inherit his wealth and invest like crazy.
Saving up a huge cash hoard for your children to invest is not the worst idea actually.

leaving a bigger hoard of investments for your children to inherit is a better idea.

 

[BBCWatcher]

Singapore is in a technical recession.

Singapore could be in a technical recession, but probably not. We won’t know whether or not the country is (or was) until we’ve seen two consecutive quarters of falling GDP. The next statistical release will be the 2Q2019 advance GDP estimate on or about July 19, and the final estimate will be released on or about August 19.

 

[Dividends Warrior]

leaving a bigger hoard of investments for your children to inherit is a better idea.

Tell that to Warren Buffett

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jenniferwang/2019/07/01/warren-buffett-to-donate-36-billion-of-his-berkshire-hathaway-shares/#3d88effe692e

 

[minamikaze]

I'm up ~80% for the year so far. Have been putting 100% of my primary income into options and stocks.
It's scary because I don't know when the tide will turn. Have to have the guts to stop the bleeding if and when things start to go south.

 

[NewInvestor]

Trump to nominate Judy Shelton, Christopher Waller to the Federal Reserve - https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/02/trump-to-nominate-judy-shelton-christopher-waller-to-the-fed.html

"In an*interview with CNBC*in June, Shelton said that if appointed, she would lower interest rates to 0% in one to two years."

 

[revhappy]

Singapore could be in a technical recession, but probably not. We won’t know whether or not the country is (or was) until we’ve seen two consecutive quarters of falling GDP. The next statistical release will be the 2Q2019 advance GDP estimate on or about July 19, and the final estimate will be released on or about August 19.

Whether it is a recession or not is a matter of technicality. But try smelling the tea leaves. Do you see the animal spirits of a boom? Are house prices shooting to the sky? Are COE prices screaming higher? Are rents going up?

COE is in the 25k range now. That itself is evidence that people are not really feeling rich to buy cars.

 

[coolhead]

Oh man .... Watch gold ejaculate overnight...

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[tesarise]

Whether it is a recession or not is a matter of technicality. But try smelling the tea leaves. Do you see the animal spirits of a boom? Are house prices shooting to the sky? Are COE prices screaming higher?

COE is in the 25k range now. That itself is evidence that people are not really feeling rich to buy cars.

try smelling the tea leaves. Do you see unemployment rate going through the roof? Is there hyperinflation? Are companies going defaulting on their debts left and right?

 

[revhappy]

try smelling the tea leaves. Do you see unemployment rate going through the roof? Is there hyperinflation? Are companies going defaulting on their debts left and right?

But the stock markets are at a peak, look at Dividend warriors portfolio. With all economic indicators cooling off, don't you think stock prices are out of whack?

 

[tesarise]

But the stock markets are at a peak, look at Dividend warriors portfolio. With all economic indicators cooling off, don't you think stock prices are out of whack?

Stock prices are exactly what they should be at: as determined by the collective actions of buyer and sellers on the market. Do you have any information not available to the market at large?

Also, I was replying to your earlier counterpoint to BBCW about recession, not about whether prices are high