The bears den

[coolhead]

Today 8.15 and 8.30pm SGP time alot of important economic data... Keep in touch.

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[churnmaster]

For all the drop in bond yields, the US dollar and s&p500 is holding the fort surprisingly well. Something's got to give.

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And after yesterday's rate cut by RBA, AUD rallying

 

[coolhead]

And after yesterday's rate cut by RBA, AUD rallying

You have to admit that is an outlier...

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[churnmaster]

Isn't she imf chairman or sth? I'm so grateful to take pic with her when she was in Singapore for Singapore fintech festival in nov2018.

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Yes, she's the IMF chief.

Btw, CNBC's Oriel Morrison also said she had a selfie with her sometime back and she's quite down to earth when it comes to dealing with ordinary folks / general public

How's your GORO position doing?

 

[Mecisteus]

Today 8.15 and 8.30pm SGP time alot of important economic data... Keep in touch.

Almost every single week there is an important economic data.

Almost impossible for someone to keep track.

 

[coolhead]

Yes, she's the IMF chief.

Btw, CNBC's Oriel Morrison also said she had a selfie with her sometime back and she's quite down to earth when it comes to dealing with ordinary folks / general public

How's your GORO position doing?

Oh yes, she does not carry airs about her and has a very sharp mind.

Goro is something I've traded in and out past few years when it ranged between $3-6. But I've added alot in low 3s recently due to the gold breakout. It's meant as an investment position and not to be traded actively, unless fed rate hikes which I'll then greatly reduce my holdings. It's a fundamentally sound company so I've no worries even if it lags other miners.

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[coolhead]

Almost every single week there is an important economic data.

Almost impossible for someone to keep track.

Last week there isn't much though. This is quite telling actually. I'm more curious if ADP will end up negative, initial jobless claims continue to rise as there is already long term change in trend for these 2 for the worst.

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[churnmaster]

You have to admit that is an outlier...

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Its called investor positioning ....when everyone is bearish, the market typically rallies and vice versa.

The best example I can think of is EUR/USD in Oct 2013, the night Ben Bernanke spoke about tapering bond buying (taper tantrum night), when EUR rallied past 1.34 and for the next 6 months continued to trade higher all the way to 1.40 plus. One of the most stressful period, when fundamentals say to remain short and technicals say close short and go long.

This is why I say markets with prove your logic wrong ... though your thought process may be right.

 

[Trader11]

Almost every single week there is an important economic data.

Almost impossible for someone to keep track.

IMO it is only important for Forex traders. Equities seldom affected by econ news

 

[Trader11]

Its called investor positioning ....when everyone is bearish, the market typically rallies and vice versa.

The best example I can think of is EUR/USD in Oct 2013, the night Ben Bernanke spoke about tapering bond buying (taper tantrum night), when EUR rallied past 1.34 and for the next 6 months continued to trade higher all the way to 1.40 plus. One of the most stressful period, when fundamentals say to remain short and technicals say close short and go long.

This is why I say markets with prove your logic wrong ... though your thought process may be right.

How is the thought process consider to be correct if the market proves you wrong? Economists seldom make money because of this reason.

 

[Trader11]

How is the thought process consider to be correct if the market proves you wrong? Economists seldom make money because of this reason.

I already making money today by not following the "rationality" of the news.

 

[churnmaster]

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/go...d-holdings-in-defensive-stance-amid-trade-war

'In tandem, the sovereign wealth fund had broadly been cutting its exposure in developed-market equities, down to 19 per cent as at March 31, 2019 from 23 per cent as at March 31, 2018. The figure was 36 per cent as at end-March 2013.'

Very relevant article.

 

[churnmaster]

Markets can stay irrational and is often given to overshooting. One would not know that it has over shot at that moment. It is only determined on hindsight.

And given the flush of liquidity, it can potentially overshoot over a long duration of time. There is a good reason why the professionals are not participating and elsewhere, the bond and gold markets are running higher..... All these suggest that there is a flight to safety on top of the unusual demand caused by the flood of liquidity... economic indicators are turning so caution is warranted. And I would be even more cautious given that we are seeing new highs in the S&P. I would participate with swings and intraday trades but would scoot out the minute things turn.

Rev, you subscribed to Reuters?

Very true .. be nimble and book profits / cut losses regularly.

 

[DukeCS33]

I already making money today by not following the "rationality" of the news.

By the time the news hit the wires, the smart money is ready to be taking profit. Whoever believe that the stock market is transparent and not given to insider trading is living in a dreamland.

 

[churnmaster]

I'm up ~80% for the year so far. Have been putting 100% of my primary income into options and stocks.
It's scary because I don't know when the tide will turn. Have to have the guts to stop the bleeding if and when things start to go south.

Congrats!

I think you already had the guts to make such good returns playing long ... now you just need the discipline to book all or most of your profits as and when the market rolls over. All the best.

 

[churnmaster]

How is the thought process consider to be correct if the market proves you wrong? Economists seldom make money because of this reason.

Yup, agree with you many analysts / economists never become successful traders. They are mostly fundamental driven and many a times skeptical about market technicals.

 

[tesarise]

I'm up ~80% for the year so far. Have been putting 100% of my primary income into options and stocks.
It's scary because I don't know when the tide will turn. Have to have the guts to stop the bleeding if and when things start to go south.

V respectable returns. Is your base small? Haha

GIC return is only 3.4%

'In tandem, the sovereign wealth fund had broadly been cutting its exposure in developed-market equities, down to 19 per cent as at March 31, 2019 from 23 per cent as at March 31, 2018. The figure was 36 per cent as at end-March 2013.'

And that's why they are getting 3.4% real returns compared to bro minamikaze's 80% nominal (so about 75% real)

 

[peipei1]

Why did US market go up tonight? Missed the boat, thought was 1 and half day holiday coming and with uncertainty in trade truce and rate cuts, should be selling down.

While we were bearish, i just browsing those Ibrk sector reports, some stocks like Payc, Oled, Sea, ctrip chiong higher than 100% ytd.

 

[BBCWatcher]

Why did US market go up tonight?

The financial press speculates that traders are slightly more confident the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates — I think an ADP jobs number released today gave them that idea — and they feel stocks are slightly more valuable with a rate cut.

It’s just their guess, though.

The S&P 500 index hit yet another all-time intraday and closing high today. Actually, all the major indices did. And the 10 year U.S. Treasury yield broke well below 2%, down now to just a little above 1.95%. What a strange yield curve!

 

[Merg91]

The bears may buy while they talk down the market.
You just need to have your war chest ready and brave.