The bears den

[revhappy]

Stock prices are exactly what they should be at: as determined by the collective actions of buyer and sellers on the market. Do you have any information not available to the market at large?

Also, I was replying to your earlier counterpoint to BBCW about recession, not about whether prices are high

I don't give any credit to the collective intelligence of markets. Look what happened in Dec 2018, out of nowhere, for no reason. So markets can stay irrational.

 

[revhappy]

Bond market knows best.

 

[Merg91]

Singapore weather forecast is as 'good'.

Best example was in 2016, everyone was saying recession in 2017 bcos of Trump and Brexit. Turned out 2017 was a super bullish year.

 

[SBC]

I'm up ~80% for the year so far. Have been putting 100% of my primary income into options and stocks.
It's scary because I don't know when the tide will turn. Have to have the guts to stop the bleeding if and when things start to go south.

V respectable returns. Is your base small? Haha

GIC return is only 3.4%

 

[DukeCS33]

I don't give any credit to the collective intelligence of markets. Look what happened in Dec 2018, out of nowhere, for no reason. So markets can stay irrational.

Markets can stay irrational and is often given to overshooting. One would not know that it has over shot at that moment. It is only determined on hindsight.

And given the flush of liquidity, it can potentially overshoot over a long duration of time. There is a good reason why the professionals are not participating and elsewhere, the bond and gold markets are running higher..... All these suggest that there is a flight to safety on top of the unusual demand caused by the flood of liquidity... economic indicators are turning so caution is warranted. And I would be even more cautious given that we are seeing new highs in the S&P. I would participate with swings and intraday trades but would scoot out the minute things turn.

Rev, you subscribed to Reuters?

 

[revhappy]

Rev, you subscribed to Reuters?

No that screenshot is from someone on Twitter.

 

[klarklar]

And given the flush of liquidity, it can potentially overshoot over a long duration of time. There is a good reason why the professionals are not participating and elsewhere, the bond and gold markets are running higher..... All these suggest that there is a flight to safety on top of the unusual demand caused by the flood of liquidity... economic indicators are turning so caution is warranted. And I would be even more cautious given that we are seeing new highs in the S&P. I would participate with swings and intraday trades but would scoot out the minute things turn.

Hi DukeCS33,

Can ask you which charting time-frame do you use for swing and intra-day trades? How many trades do you make per day on average for swing and intra-day trading?

 

[Merg91]

Buy when this bear den has many say 'I told you!'.

 

[limster]

COE is in the 25k range now. That itself is evidence that people are not really feeling rich to buy cars.

Cat B price is still 35k. Hasn't gone below 30k for a very long time.

Cat A demand probably affected because of vehicle emission scheme. A budget car like Mazda 3 sedan is VES C1 band! Thats the same band as an Audi S4 ... but a 5k penalty in a price sensitive segment probably means that buyers are holding off purchases until the car manufacturers revise their engines to meet the VES B banding.

 

[peterchan75]

DJI can't get over the 3 Oct 2018 daily high.

 

[coolhead]

Time now is same as gold price.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[DukeCS33]

Hi DukeCS33,

Can ask you which charting time-frame do you use for swing and intra-day trades? How many trades do you make per day on average for swing and intra-day trading?

I use daily for my swing trades. Generally, I would also look at the fractals - weekly and hourly charts to determine if the trend is aligned. Swing trading means catching a reversal on correction assuming that the dominant trend would continue. I use the daily and hourly to time an entry be it short or long and would trade any identified stock intraday to time an entry as well.
I typically trade 5 to 10 trades a month but have cut this down to 2 or 3 now. Holding time is also a lot shorter... about 7 days max. I also limit exposure to 1 stock per industry per day and no more than 3 stocks for each industry within the week.

Intraday trades average about 2 to 3 each night and I trade only between 9.30 to 11.30 pm.

I am now about to move all my trading to intraday and stop swing trading.

 

[churnmaster]

Forum is quite active today

 

[revhappy]

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/go...d-holdings-in-defensive-stance-amid-trade-war

'In tandem, the sovereign wealth fund had broadly been cutting its exposure in developed-market equities, down to 19 per cent as at March 31, 2019 from 23 per cent as at March 31, 2018. The figure was 36 per cent as at end-March 2013.'

 

[minamikaze]

V respectable returns. Is your base small? Haha

GIC return is only 3.4%

It's average. Low 6 figures.

A pity I actually moved 200+k out early this year to pay off half my mortgage because I was apprehensive, but can't say I regret it because who knows, the market could tank as well.

 

[DukeCS33]

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/go...d-holdings-in-defensive-stance-amid-trade-war

'In tandem, the sovereign wealth fund had broadly been cutting its exposure in developed-market equities, down to 19 per cent as at March 31, 2019 from 23 per cent as at March 31, 2018. The figure was 36 per cent as at end-March 2013.'

So its only the passive ETF / Retail bidding up the rally while the professionals have been reducing exposure....

 

[Trader11]

Tiagong Christine Lagarde is new ECB boss. More QE coming.......

 

[Dividends Warrior]

Tiagong Christine Lagarde is new ECB boss. More QE coming.......

Whatever it takes.
Life goes on.

 

[coolhead]

Tiagong Christine Lagarde is new ECB boss. More QE coming.......

Isn't she imf chairman or sth? I'm so grateful to take pic with her when she was in Singapore for Singapore fintech festival in nov2018.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[coolhead]

For all the drop in bond yields, the US dollar and s&p500 is holding the fort surprisingly well. Something's got to give.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT