The bears den

[[M]aiev]

revhappy, Duke and Shortthemkt all gone into hibernation.

They will probably be back when there is volatility.

Have to get used to it. Many so-called bear will jump out of coffin when volatility strikes.

The best part is they sold during the sell down and buy when the market trends up

 

[Shortthemkt]

Thanks for sharing the obvious.

Whether obvious to you or not, your P&L will tell you so.

The worst traders are those that think they knew alot when in fact they are not profitable.

You are welcomed.

 

[chrisloh65]

Those that make empty talk?
Those that has little experience nor track records of high returns but talk like an expert?
Those that blow trumpet on their profits and hide their loses?
Those that horse back canon?

Whether obvious to you or not, your P&L will tell you so.

The worst traders are those that think they knew alot when in fact they are not profitable.

You are welcomed.

 

[Mecisteus]

Whether obvious to you or not, your P&L will tell you so.

The worst traders are those that think they knew alot when in fact they are not profitable.

You are welcomed.

Fake traders are like you, FCS and chrisloh65=sugarbunny=ervino who register new nicks in HWZ all the times.

 

[Trader11]

Fake traders are like you, FCS and chrisloh65=sugarbunny=ervino who register new nicks in HWZ all the times.

Plus Keverus and blurinvestor

 

[DukeCS33]

You gloat on the bearish side while not being invested, I choose to gloat on the bullish size while being invested.

You are still delusional. US market is nowhere near Japan or tech bubble. Stay away from toxic sources like zerohedge.

0% or 100% in equities is really a silly preposition to be in right now.

Choose an allocation somewhere in the middle. It is not good to be on the extreme sides.

I am off the view that what is being discussed is a good representation of the current state of the markets. Those rich people i know are fearful. They have a nest egg to protect and fear a downturn as the central banks have been engaging in monetary easing and qe but have not been able to curb the slowdown. So they fear a slowdown turning into a recession or depression. Yet with the amount of liquidity sloshing within the global system, these monies are just being rotated around and with not many viable alternatives due to the amount of monies floating out there, most asset prices - bonds, equities, gold, property just gets pumped up. So there is fear that one suffers when prices correct yet there is also fear that one misses out in the rally and which imposes an opportunity costs on those who sit on too much cash. Everyone has their concerns with those vested either happily ignoring the risk that a shake out in this confidence causing a Hugh deflation when this over confidence burst or those who worry too much, sitting out and losing in opportunity costs the longer they sit out but fearful of staying vested in case their views are right. This situation can just continue in so long as central bankers manage to maintain confidence. But once this gets shaken, we may see a Hugh reset for this and the outcome can be very severe.

 

[Trader11]

I am off the view that what is being discussed is a good representation of the current state of the markets. Those rich people i know are fearful. They have a nest egg to protect and fear a downturn as the central banks have been engaging in monetary easing and qe but have not been able to curb the slowdown. So they fear a slowdown turning into a recession or depression. Yet with the amount of liquidity sloshing within the global system, these monies are just being rotated around and with not many viable alternatives due to the amount of monies floating out there, most asset prices - bonds, equities, gold, property just gets pumped up. So there is fear that one suffers when prices correct yet there is also fear that one misses out in the rally and which imposes an opportunity costs on those who sit on too much cash. Everyone has their concerns with those vested either happily ignoring the risk that a shake out in this confidence causing a Hugh deflation when this over confidence burst or those who worry too much, sitting out and losing in opportunity costs the longer they sit out but fearful of staying vested in case their views are right. This situation can just continue in so long as central bankers manage to maintain confidence. But once this gets shaken, we may see a Hugh reset for this and the outcome can be very severe.

Sounds like trading is more suitable here....

 

[DukeCS33]

Sounds like trading is more suitable here....

Yeah. Prior, I have less intraday trades and the majority of my trades were swing. I used to hold on to positions from 5 to 20 days, cut it down to 5days hold and now, stopped doing swings altogether as I do not see many ideal setups that gets validated by my volume spread analysis filters. The intraday trades were mostly breakouts trades. I am quite surprised as I do not use to trade breakouts as trading retracements suits my personality make up more. I guess that comes from confidence from good wins. Now, I have scripted some statistically proven strategies that helps take out a lot of manual work. They are not hard core systematic trades like what you do as I do apply a fair amount of discretionary considerations and volume filters before taking those trades. How's your system trading coming along?

 

[Trader11]

For me, I am expecting the bear to come soon after the economy tank...

 

[Mecisteus]

I am off the view that what is being discussed is a good representation of the current state of the markets. Those rich people i know are fearful. They have a nest egg to protect and fear a downturn as the central banks have been engaging in monetary easing and qe but have not been able to curb the slowdown. So they fear a slowdown turning into a recession or depression. Yet with the amount of liquidity sloshing within the global system, these monies are just being rotated around and with not many viable alternatives due to the amount of monies floating out there, most asset prices - bonds, equities, gold, property just gets pumped up. So there is fear that one suffers when prices correct yet there is also fear that one misses out in the rally and which imposes an opportunity costs on those who sit on too much cash. Everyone has their concerns with those vested either happily ignoring the risk that a shake out in this confidence causing a Hugh deflation when this over confidence burst or those who worry too much, sitting out and losing in opportunity costs the longer they sit out but fearful of staying vested in case their views are right. This situation can just continue in so long as central bankers manage to maintain confidence. But once this gets shaken, we may see a Hugh reset for this and the outcome can be very severe.

I already mentioned a few times. Now is not a good time to be greedy.

Just hold or raise cash slowly.

 

[DukeCS33]

I already mentioned a few times. Now is not a good time to be greedy.

Just hold or raise cash slowly.

I do agree with you.

However for some, they have too much money and their considerations would be to deploy or invest the monies against leaving it idle. There is however a lot of fear in them... they tend to be familiar with markets and have seen cycles - this cycle is slightly different - there is too much QE done and little unwound. All these excess cash was meant by central bankers to get the resources allocated to productive parts of the economy, to create jobs and employment but they end up in capital markets, assets and properties. Values are inflated as a result. So these rich people having seen the cycles of 97 and the early 80s fear a breaking of the bubble - it coming at a time when QE was done and it would be hard to stimulate the economy. At the same time, there is a fear that the central bankers have spent their toolkit box as nothing appears to have worked... so if they invest, they fear this breaking of the bubble... if they stay out, and being schooled in finance, fear that their monies are not deployed to make more money. Rich people have rich people's problems!

And for those who trade for a living, then what do they do? Sit tight and not trade nor invest? If they have chosen trading as a profession, they would need to trade. Maybe people here just buy and invest... trading is different and one can short as well as go long... now for these people, they know that the tendency is for markets to rise given all the excess liquidity but with S&P at highs and the backdrop of a slowdown and bond and gold prices rising, they may find it difficult to go long or short in this environment.

 

[Trader11]

I do agree with you.

However for some, they have too much money and their considerations would be to deploy or invest the monies. There is however a lot of fear in them... they tend to be familiar with markets and have seen cycles - this cycle is slightly different - there is too much QE done and little unwound. All these excess cash was meant by central bankers to get the resources allocated to productive parts of the economy, to create jobs and employment but they end up in capital markets, assets and properties. Values are inflated as a result. So these rich people having seen the cycles of 97 and the early 80s fear a breaking of the bubble - it coming at a time when QE was done and it would be hard to stimulate the economy. At the same time, there is a fear that the central bankers have spent their toolkit box as nothing appears to have worked... so if they invest, they fear this breaking of the bubble... if they stay out, and being schooled in finance, fear that their monies are not deployed to make more money. Rich people have rich people's problems!

And for those who trade for a living, then what do they do? Sit tight and not trade nor invest? If they have chosen trading as a profession, they would need to trade. Maybe people here just buy and invest... trading is different and one can short as well as go long... now for these people, they know that the tendency is for markets to rise given all the excess liquidity but with S&P at highs and the backdrop of a slowdown and bond and gold prices rising, they may find it difficult to go long or short in this environment.

I have to say that the volatility is quite muted right now for other markets outside equities. SP500 is indeed sucking alot of money

 

[churnmaster]

I am off the view that what is being discussed is a good representation of the current state of the markets. Those rich people i know are fearful. They have a nest egg to protect and fear a downturn as the central banks have been engaging in monetary easing and qe but have not been able to curb the slowdown. So they fear a slowdown turning into a recession or depression. Yet with the amount of liquidity sloshing within the global system, these monies are just being rotated around and with not many viable alternatives due to the amount of monies floating out there, most asset prices - bonds, equities, gold, property just gets pumped up. So there is fear that one suffers when prices correct yet there is also fear that one misses out in the rally and which imposes an opportunity costs on those who sit on too much cash. Everyone has their concerns with those vested either happily ignoring the risk that a shake out in this confidence causing a Hugh deflation when this over confidence burst or those who worry too much, sitting out and losing in opportunity costs the longer they sit out but fearful of staying vested in case their views are right. This situation can just continue in so long as central bankers manage to maintain confidence. But once this gets shaken, we may see a Hugh reset for this and the outcome can be very severe.

Yeah, the central banks and govts don't want any sharp drop in consumer confidence. Because if that happens the economy may just start spiralling down.

But, I also agree with Mike that you shouldn't be at the extremes (i.e.100% or 0% invested) but should be somewhere in the middle depending upon your risk appetite.

 

[Mecisteus]

However for some, they have too much money and their considerations would be to deploy or invest the monies against leaving it idle. There is however a lot of fear in them... they tend to be familiar with markets and have seen cycles - this cycle is slightly different -

And for those who trade for a living, then what do they do? Sit tight and not trade nor invest?

I don't understand the rich people that you know.

They got too much money, too much fear but they don't want to leave the cash idle.

It is like they are hungry but they don't want to eat.

If you look at the S&P for more than 100 years, the cycle is always the same. There will always be a long boom period and a short bust period.

For the traders, I just wish them good luck.

 

[Mecisteus]

But, I also agree with Mike that you shouldn't be at the extremes (i.e.100% or 0% invested) but should be somewhere in the middle depending upon your risk appetite.

Moderation applies to everything in life.

If you have a low tolerance to risk, can always opt for 10-20% equities.

 

[revhappy]

Moderation applies to everything in life.

If you have a low tolerance to risk, can always opt for 10-20% equities.

The low allocation won't make any impact to my life. Especially, index investing. If 20% of my portfolio goes up by 10% and rest of th portfolio goes up by 2%, overall it is 3.6%. I would rather conserve that 20% allocation for a deeper crash.

 

[wutawa]

The low allocation won't make any impact to my life. Especially, index investing. If 20% of my portfolio goes up by 10% and rest of th portfolio goes up by 2%, overall it is 3.6%. I would rather conserve that 20% allocation for a deeper crash.

Do u have a rough idea which companies or indices u will be buying when the crash comes? Or everything has to wait till then?

 

[revhappy]

Do u have a rough idea which companies or indices u will be buying when the crash comes? Or everything has to wait till then?

In a globally synchronized slowdown, everything falls. So the world index is good enough.

 

[wutawa]

In a globally synchronized slowdown, everything falls. So the world index is good enough.

Ic, i guess i will be more greedy than u. Haha

 

[Mecisteus]

My tech and healthcare heavy portfolio is green today.

I took the opportunity to sell <10% of them.